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Steelers select TJ Watt

Does anyone know anything about a long-term prognosis for his knees? According to this interview he's had multiple (3) patella subluxations in each of them... I'm not a doctor but it has me a little concerned.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aCppYZO838

From what I have read, and I am not a doctor (did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express), it is a dislocation of the kneecap because the tendons get stretched or are too long. It is genetic. Injury is painful, but the surgery has them repairing or shortening the tendons. A study was done on patients that had surgery for this and 87% that had surgery saw a reduction in recurrent dislocations and 66% had a reduction in instability (5 years later). So, surgery is very effective. He also went two seasons without issue.

So, he looks to be in that grouping of 87%/66%. Good news on that front.
 
It's not like he's a finished product either, he'll get stronger and faster with NFL coaching. He seemed to do really well in the quickness drills. I'm guessing Watt scored better in everything besides the bench when compared to Harrison, but that hasn't stopped Harrison from being successful. Watt has great instincts and loves to play.
 
He's going to be special. I'm excited about the pick and I'm excited to see where he will be in a year from now underneath Deebo and Porter. Perfect team to be drafted for him IMO.
 
It's like the 3rd year in a row with trades right around us to gauge what we could have done trading. And it's like the 3rd time in a row we stand pat and just pick.

Like Burns last year, it seems very tempting to say we could have traded down 3-4 spots and still pick the same guy we wanted. And you have to wonder since Green Bay traded back and didn't pick Watt, that wasn't who they wanted (which is kind of surprising actually). If we traded back to behind Green Bay again (at pick #34) with San Francisco, who is going to pick Watt? And you could argue we would still be guaranteed to get Lawson - Baker - Watt - Awuzie - Melifonwu (one or more would be available) and is Watt really that much better than all of them?

Last year in "what I would have done", I did trade back and picked Hunter Henry (would have been okay with Burns but I can't play that what-if game).

I am leaning on saying we should have traded back again, but that just isn't what we do. The extra early 4th rounder might be awfully nice to have (either to trade up in round 3 or just keep).
 


I'm going to take a minute and cover some of the things Watt does well. I linked this video again, not because I like highlights, I really, really don't, but it gives a variety of plays quickly and I can talk about the good things I see without a glut of other plays where the pass is out quickly or the run goes away, etc.

So, I'll go play by play.
First snap, the OG pulls out to pick up Watt. Watt gives up the shoulder, inside shoulder and that is big. A lot of times, guys don't see that guard coming, Watt does, gets good position, outside arm free, so if it is a reverse, he can push off with the inside hand and keep containment. But, when he sees no one is coming, he slips and closes. Great body position and slip at the point. Nice finish. He will develop that ball rake.

Second play, coming hard off the snap, downhill, kind of squeezes inside and then makes a big stride to the edge. The RB was coming down and now he has to slide back outside. Watt gets his hands on the shoulders and whether the RB knows it or not, by then he is beaten. Hands stop the movement, rip to the outside, beats him easy, nasty finish. I thought he broke him. On the slow motion replay, watch his free hand and how he is getting it up to stop the arm movement of the QB. Really good stuff.

Third play is the INT against Purdue. What I really like is how he recognizes the roll out and bumps the RB. He hugs the RB for about 3-4 yards and that allows time for the ILB to get out. Was watching an interview with him about a similar type play where he rubs and releases and the guy said, wasn't that your guy you released and Watt said: "Yes". He said, "Why did you release him?" Answer: "Because I knew (forget his name) would be there. We watch enough film, I KNEW he would be there to cover that play. So, Watt not only understands how to approach a guy and slow him, he also understands his teammates tendencies and where they will be on plays to help, so he holds his ground when he needs to hold it and will release and freelance when he knows his team has him covered. That type of preparation and instincts cannot really be taught. It is a feel/trust thing. Have to know the offense, defense, and the guys around you. Oh, helps when you are almost 6'5" with a 37" vertical and can jump, bat the ball, secure it and score.

Steps up the field quickly off the snap, pulling guard coming but he gives that little dip he has and the guard has no shot. If you don't get him before he is a yard up the field, you are beaten. Nice stuff of the RB. And, in other film, when he is on backside runs, he comes down and crushes guys like Harrison.

This next play, he gets his hands up and bats the ball. Not a big deal as far as highlights, but Watt, in a lot of instances, when he cannot get there, will take a step back from the OL (so they cannot push him), watch the QB, and time his leap to bat the ball down. Surprisingly good at it.

This next play shows his feel again. The FB is coming, gives the inside shoulder, keeps the outside hand free, bumps, sheds, makes the play. Very good technique on taking on that block and keeping the outside hand clean.

This next play is one of my favorites and Watt does this type of stuff a lot. You see him engage the OT with both hands, gets those long arms to the shoulder pads. He has control within a heartbeat. Extends, rips him back to his body, I've always called it a push-pull, but he snatches the OL off balance and actually throws him to the ground. Easy win. That is a big time move.

Watt is dropping in coverage which he does well. Looking at the outside WR, likely to see where he is going. Underneath throw, click and close (see the COD), RB dodges but he slows him, rips at the ball.

This play is tough to locate Watt. He is at LDE. Presses up the field off the snap. You can see he has the OT on tilt when they engage, kind of off balance heading backwards. If you press deep, might sit him down, but he might recover and take you around the arc. Watt uses his inside hand to continue to push as he transitions back inside. OL is done, swimming. Watt bounces back outside to finish. Nice blend of speed, power, back to speed.

On this play, coming from the MLB spot. Engaged by the RB, little slip and it is off to the races. No way that QB beats him around the edge. Forget about it.

Another play that Watt is often asked to do, coming from the ILB spot, working inside out. His job is to come across the face of the guard and engage the inside shoulder of the OT. If the guard follows, it opens the lane for the outside guy looping. If the guard opens, you slip the inside gap. He is so far ahead of other guys doing this, just a great feel for when to press and when to release. That OT is dead to rights on this one, and so is the QB. As soon as the OG opened the door, he was gone.

Same concept against MSU. Watt is down. Works the same game with the OLB. Guard follows initially, then comes off. When he does, Watt is in that gap. QB works back up but Watt has inside position, just peels and finishes. The OLB should have gotten it done, but Watt continued to work.

Against Purdue, you see him press deep, that little push pull, gets his arms extended and just pulls himself past the OT. This OT doesn't really play it poorly, still gets beaten. His QB did not help him though. Ran right into a sack.

Against Iowa, another one of my favorite plays. He is so quick to the corner that you are expecting him to burn the edge. So, what does he do? Takes a quick step or two and turns in on you, uses those long arms to get into the pads and goes speed to power and just walks that OT back to the QB. Iowa always seems to have some stout/powerful OTs too. That isn't some soft baby he is driving back. That OT is working his *** off to reset and stop the bull rush, he just cannot.

Another play where he steps back off the line, gets up and bats it down.

This is one of those plays where he is unblocked and the run goes away. He actually does this a lot and doesn't often get burned on reverses because he sees things so well.

He just does so many little things so well, so technically sound with his hands and movements. Saw video of him at EXOS Performance Specialist where he was benching 315 for reps. So, working on that power. One trainer at EXOS said he works like he isnt't going to get drafted, just puts his nose on the ground and goes, like he hasn't accomplished anything. The other guy at EXOS said he is a really really good student of the game, picks up things well, instinctive, some team will have themselves a great player.

Colbert and Tomlin said he works like an NFL veteran, not like most college guys. Mature in his approach.


TMC, I was hoping you would do a little write up on him. I like the pick and I like it more after your analysis. Great stuff.
 
I thought about them trading back too, but there are some reasons why I think they didn't. I mean, an early 4th is nice, but look at this. Of the 10 picks prior to the Steelers taking Watt, three edge rushers went off the board. Two corners did. If you look at the high end edge guys that could probably play OLB for us, I see Derek Rivers, Carl Lawson, Tyus Bowser, Jordan Willis, and maybe Tim Williams if he is still on our board. So, five guys that are really near the teir with Watt. Three are ranked on the level with Watt. If you trade down and take a DB, do those 5 make it to #62? I'm not so sure.

So, maybe you trade down and hope he slides. Maybe you take the next best OLB if he goes. Maybe you hope one falls to #62. For me, it all depends on the ranking. Last draft, Burns was considered the last of the top end corners. After him, there was a drop. Maybe they have Watt in the same area.

I'd like a 4th, especially a high 4th, but I've changed more to getting the guy I want over a glut of guys. I also think you have to stay ahead of the runs in a draft and moving might put you on the wrong side of the picks. If edges start rolling now, I think they made the right move. And, you get Watt for 5 years versus 4. I like that 5th year option.
 
The 5th year option is nice. I agree with you on that. You can probably ask SF on the phone who they are going to pick before you trade. That eliminates one of the picks you have to worry about. That leaves Seattle (4-3 team), New Orleans (4-3 team who already took CB and need a pass rusher) and Green Bay again (who just gave a clear signal they weren't that interested in Watt when they passed on him knowing we like him).

That's it.

You also have to worry about Green Bay trading out of #33 again as teams re-stack their boards overnight. That might be the biggest risk of all.

And you talk about worrying about getting a pass rusher (let's say Watt disappears in those 3 picks above), you can just pick Awuzie or Baker and then package your #62 and one of your 3rd/4th rounders to trade up and get Rivers or Lawson or Bowser or Willis. If you are worried 5 pass rushers will go in round 2 ahead of #62, trade up. You have the ammo to do it.

We're kind of in the same boat now waiting to see what DB is left at #62, right?
 
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The kid is a work horse. We don't need another Jarvis. We want a kid who has a motor and we know is going to work hard. I'm good with the pick. Now back to the secondary in Round 2.
 
The kid is a work horse. We don't need another Jarvis. We want a kid who has a motor and we know is going to work hard. I'm good with the pick. Now back to the secondary in Round 2.
Exactly and could be a big reason why they didn't want to trade and risk losing him. Yeah other guys may be ranked with him, but it takes more than workout numbers to be successful, hes a high motor, great instincts, love game type if guy.
 
Another possible up side player. So number one pick ,does he start or does Tomlin wait and see attitude.
 
Another possible up side player. So number one pick ,does he start or does Tomlin wait and see attitude.

He's going to play immediately, IMO. Harrison is not going to start the season taking 90%+ of the defensive snaps. I see Watt getting worked in more and more over the first 8 games and becoming the "starter" in the 2nd half of the season. Harrison will still play a bunch, of course.
 
Another possible up side player. So number one pick ,does he start or does Tomlin wait and see attitude.

There will definitely be a rotation. As long as there are no injuries between now and opening weekend you can expect to see Harrison, Moats and Watt all get snaps with Dupree getting the majority of the snaps on the other side. The positive for us with this pick is that he has to perform, Harrison can't beat father time forever. We need Watt to be able to perform sooner than later.
 
There will definitely be a rotation. As long as there are no injuries between now and opening weekend you can expect to see Harrison, Moats and Watt all get snaps with Dupree getting the majority of the snaps on the other side. The positive for us with this pick is that he has to perform, Harrison can't beat father time forever. We need Watt to be able to perform sooner than later.

Moats may not even be on the team by game 1. He is just a guy who is paid a lot for what he brings. He wasn't getting any snaps on D at the end of last season (like Jarvis). We won't slow down Watt's development because Moats needs to be on the field.
 
Moats may not even be on the team by game 1. He is just a guy who is paid a lot for what he brings. He wasn't getting any snaps on D at the end of last season (like Jarvis). We won't slow down Watt's development because Moats needs to be on the field.

It won't be because we need Moats on the field, but because Watt either isn't ready yet or because they want to keep Harrison fresh for the 2nd half of the season.
 
It won't be because we need Moats on the field, but because Watt either isn't ready yet or because they want to keep Harrison fresh for the 2nd half of the season.

I don't see it at all. A run of injuries at the OLB position is the only thing that will put Moats on the field. We know what Moats is...just a guy who will play OK for a game or two if you have injuries and is OK at special teams. Watt is not going to get any better watching from the sidelines, he will get worked into the D pretty aggressively.
 
Or they can try that Three OLB on the field again. Watt and Dupree can drop and cover. It was Harrison and Gay who were having issues. Rush Harrison Tuitt Hayward and Hargrave. Make the defense guess when Watt Shazier and Dupree are coming. Just a thought since they have experimented with that look before.
 
How has that high jump worked out for Dupree in terms of beating tackles for sacks so far?

Watt doesn't need to be elite. He was the 30th pick in the first round. If the Steelers got a productive starter who can put up 8-10 sacks per year and take on a leadership role for the defense and team, that's a great pick. A few months ago there was a lot of complaining about the "me first" divas on this team. No issue for Watt in this area and I hope our next few picks will reflect the same work ethic and love for football.

First off, Take a leadership role on the team? The guy wasn't even a captain at Wisconsin (the other OLB was), so where are you getting that nonsense from?

Second- who was complaining about a 'me first attitude'? Are you referring to Antonio Brown, the guy with probably the best work ethic in the league?!


Look, I am not mad at all at the pick, and I hope he becomes elite. But I think people are ascribing way too many intangibles just because of his last name.
 
How do you know we could have had the Seattle deal? I think the more likely case is ATL figured they had to jump us for McKinley ...

My thoughts exactly.
 
The 5th year option is nice. I agree with you on that. You can probably ask SF on the phone who they are going to pick before you trade. That eliminates one of the picks you have to worry about. That leaves Seattle (4-3 team), New Orleans (4-3 team who already took CB and need a pass rusher) and Green Bay again (who just gave a clear signal they weren't that interested in Watt when they passed on him knowing we like him).

That's it.

You also have to worry about Green Bay trading out of #33 again as teams re-stack their boards overnight. That might be the biggest risk of all.

And you talk about worrying about getting a pass rusher (let's say Watt disappears in those 3 picks above), you can just pick Awuzie or Baker and then package your #62 and one of your 3rd/4th rounders to trade up and get Rivers or Lawson or Bowser or Willis. If you are worried 5 pass rushers will go in round 2 ahead of #62, trade up. You have the ammo to do it.

We're kind of in the same boat now waiting to see what DB is left at #62, right?

I really cannot argue those points, but the overnight reset does concern me. You have the Chargers, Jets, and some others sitting around 40 that might covet that edge. I think most teams sitting at #33/34 and early 4th get there because they know they can get a good player (after a board reset) or value from someone coming up. That is a concern.

I don't think if we went DB we would be in the same boat. I think you see the edges go pretty quickly in the next 15 picks, edges that fit us anyway. But, there are so many DBs, one should be there at #62. If you want a specific guy, he might not, but we have a better shot at a quality DB falling to #62 than we do a quality edge. Just my opinion if I am reading the way this draft is breaking correctly.
 
After hearing McKinley talk...I'm glad we passed.

The Steelers did not pass on McKinley. Atlanta traded up five spots to grab him. And McKinley is a very talented, motivated player.
 
After hearing McKinley talk...I'm glad we passed.

I don't really have a problem with what Takk said or how he talks. He is an emotional guy, plays with that emotion. His coaches love him. They say he is one of the toughest dudes they have ever seen. Just wants to win, grinder, wants to help his team and that motivation comes from the promise he made to the person that took care of him when nobody else would. I did not expect him to come off as a Mensa candidate.

But, I will say, I'll take TJ Watt's mature approach over it. Watt has two brothers that can help him see how to prepare, how to act, what to do. Takk doesn't even have a firm male role model in his life, well, maybe his uncle. Just different circumstances. I won't hate on a guy that overcame what he did. I wish him well, except when he plays us.
 
Draft geeks place way too much value on an early 4th round pick. Is it really wise to jeopardize getting "your guy" in round one (and giving up the 5th year option) in order to add the 110th pick?

First priority should be to nail your first round pick. We won two Super Bowls because we kept nailing our first rounders (Ben, Troy, Casey Hampton, Faneca etc.).
 
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