2017 NFL Draft Q&A

[TMC]

I have a question TMC.

I think it's a GUARANTEE the Steelers take a QB in this draft. I think likely with either one of the 3rds or 4th or 5th rounder.

Who do you think it's going to be and when? What outcome at picking a QB would piss you off the least?

Not sure if it is a guarantee, but I think they are interested. They had the QB coach at UNC, so if he slides to #30, they have to be thinking about him. I think that Webb comes in at #62. I think those are the two they like. I might get a little ticked at any of them.

I just don't think any are in the realm of being that guy you have to have. I guess Trubisky would be the guy that ticked me the least, but it shows they are not pushing to accomodate Ben for a run.

 

[TMC]

I have not watched 1/10th the game film on McKinley and Bowser as you and TMC have, del, but the concern I have for both players is that they seem to disappear once the tackle gets his hands on them. Very little demonstration of an ability to shed the block.

That is more true with Bowser than Watt. Watt slips blocks well. In space, he is harder to handle because he is athletic, sniffs things out well, but I stated he needs to improve power and that goes hand in hand with shedding.

 

[mightyguru]

Welcome Back TMC!

 

[TMC]

What do you think of Dri Archer?


Kidding. Who is your top QB in this crappy QB draft? I am not in love with anyone but more I watch the more I like Mahomes as I feel he has the highest ceiling and has the ability to be a franchise QB. I feel Trubisky probably has the highest floor but I don't see him winning any super bowls for anyone just managing a team well and getting them to the playoffs kind of like Alex Smith.

There are scary things about all of them. Kizer wilts under pressure. Watson plays in system with easy reads and ALWAYS had talent around him. Trubisky only started one year. Mahommes is in a system, a system that Webb played in before going to Cal. At Cal, not really a one-year wonder, but only 1 year at Cal. Kaaza doesn't like being blitzed...like, at all. Peterman is interesting in the middle rounds. If I had to take one, Trubisky, but that is only because I have to. I'd rather play a year without Ben and start a rookie the following season.

 

[slashsteel]

Friends with a lot of Miami fans and they couldn't stand Kaaza. From what I saw of him he always seemed to be a deer in the headlights. I never felt he carried the "it" factor. Out of all the QBs one I personally want the least.

I know the Steelers did look at him, so there is some level of interest there. Not sure how much but some level. At least doing their homework on him.

 

[steel shinin]

Hmmmm....

There are scary things about all of them. Kizer wilts under pressure. Watson plays in system with easy reads and ALWAYS had talent around him. Trubisky only started one year. Mahommes is in a system, a system that Webb played in before going to Cal. At Cal, not really a one-year wonder, but only 1 year at Cal. Kaaza doesn't like being blitzed...like, at all. Peterman is interesting in the middle rounds. If I had to take one, Trubisky, but that is only because I have to. I'd rather play a year without Ben and start a rookie the following season.

I'm with you on the plan at QB as far as not reaching goes. If you have to bridge to a new QB then so be it. A down year won't hurt unless you go into a year that has ****** QB's even higher up. Then you're kind of screwed. I do think they need to be proactive though. If they see a guy next year that they really believe in, get him in here. He doesn't need to play right away. It would probably be better if he didn't. I think what GB did with Rodgers is a great blueprint not just because he fell and his value but because they had him sit for a few years and they built him up in their system. Of course it didn't hurt that he was immensely talented.

 

[Litos]

So you have Lawson and Mckinley don't both carry slight injury question marks?

For me that is why Watt makes the most sense in perhaps the safest pick? for round 1.

I don't get it, Watt has already suffered serious injuries in Both knees . Also had surgery on herniated discs. How can anyone call him a safe pick?

 

[TMC]

I'm with you on the plan at QB as far as not reaching goes. If you have to bridge to a new QB then so be it. A down year won't hurt unless you go into a year that has ****** QB's even higher up. Then you're kind of screwed. I do think they need to be proactive though. If they see a guy next year that they really believe in, get him in here. He doesn't need to play right away. It would probably be better if he didn't. I think what GB did with Rodgers is a great blueprint not just because he fell and his value but because they had him sit for a few years and they built him up in their system. Of course it didn't hurt that he was immensely talented.

So, what if you go 6-10 and draft 8th and pick a QB. You bring him in as a rookie and he Ryan Leaf's it. Next year, you are probably drafting 5th. If a truly elite caliber QB is there, are you passing on him? What if you draft him too and then they both turn out? Can't you trade one? Look at the market for young QBs that have not done ****.....

That would be the least of my worries. If I spent two top 10 picks on a QB in consecutive years, as long as I have one, I'm good. It isn't like if we continue to draft well, hitting spots that are heavy with talent and stocking the cupboards, we won't have a talent filled roster and can afford a couple high picks to find that franchise.

 

[TMC]

I don't get it, Watt has already suffered serious injuries in Both knees . Also had surgery on herniated discs. How can anyone call him a safe pick?

I'm pretty sure it was JJ that had surgery for a herniated disc. But, TJ did blow out both knees, injured one, was in camp after being cleared, blew out the other.

 

[Litos]

I'm pretty sure it was JJ that had surgery for a herniated disc. But, TJ did blow out both knees, injured one, was in camp after being cleared, blew out the other.

well it puts him in the same boat as Lawson and McKinley

 

[TMC]

well it puts him in the same boat as Lawson and McKinley

Same boat as Lawson for sure, but McKinley is rehabbing right now. Watt's injury is over 2 years ago. Best case scenario, it is early July for McKinley, more than likely it is September. So, that hurts him. He had surgery after the combine, 4-6 months is the time frame.

 

[Litos]

Same boat as Lawson for sure, but McKinley is rehabbing right now. Watt's injury is over 2 years ago. Best case scenario, it is early July for McKinley, more than likely it is September. So, that hurts him. He had surgery after the combine, 4-6 months is the time frame.

That's why I had him (McKinley) third in my want list at 1.30, still he is a good pick for the long run as you point out

 

[steelerscotty]

Welcome home TMC!

Dead on about Harris from Mizzou . . .he screams Jarvis Jones to me.

About Trubisky: Is he really that good, or are his stats inflated due to the system he played in like Laundry Jones? I've never seen him in action but he seems kinda similar to Jones at first glance.

 

[TMC]

Welcome home TMC!

Dead on about Harris from Mizzou . . .he screams Jarvis Jones to me.

About Trubisky: Is he really that good, or are his stats inflated due to the system he played in like Laundry Jones? I've never seen him in action but he seems kinda similar to Jones at first glance.

There are some things to like, he has a strong arm, but the one thing I kept coming back to with Trubisky is, he had weapons. I mean, if you took the same WRs and RBs and handed them to Tom Brady, he would wear you out. Trubisky missed his guys a lot and they were forced to go and get passes. They did. Ryan Switzer is a terror in the slot. I mean, dude can ball his *** off. Bug Howard and Hollins are nice deep threats. Both are long with speed. Hood is a good power guy and Logan is a nice receiver out of the backfield and speed to the outside. If they had a line, I don't know if anyone could have stopped them, but the line was garbage and Trubisky would rush some throws, miss some guys. The defense wasn't great either.

So, while Colbert went down there with the QB coach, he was seen talking with Hood. Not sure how much of that is due diligence or how much is not tipping the guys they are watching. Even though I like Ayers and Rogers, if I could get Switzer in the 5th or so, I take him. Guy is a killer.

 

[TMC]

Let me state this, if you think Trubisky is the goods, watch his receivers. Here is Switzer against Pitt. They were behind by 12 when Switzer got his first touch. Watch how many 4th downs they go to Switzer and he gets them a first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9moabrcPeQ

 

[Ike Kelly]

Great to have you back TMC, your input has been sorely missed. My question for you is regarding the safety position. As I really think pass rusher, corner and WR are the first three picks this year. McKinley, Conley and Godwin my preferences.

However, what is your gauge on the safety from Texas AM . I know they were looking at the DE (Hall) and the WR (Reynolds) but Justin Evans looks like a player. Hits like a truck too with coverage skills. And yes, if Switzer is on the board in round 5 someone hack into Haley's laptop and threaten him. That kid is a player.

BTW, just for curiosity, what WAS your first impression of last years draft, before how well they turned out.


Sent from my iPad using Steeler Nation mobile app

 

[deljzc]

Switzer would immediately help you on punt returns as well. He was very good at that in college.

Like I said in my analysis, his college production is just almost a split image of Wes Welker. All that said, I have a few cautions about Switzer (not just from me but from other analysis as well around the web).

First, while his production and appearance on the field look like Welker, he isn't quite "built" like Welker was. Welker was stockier and stronger than people give him credit for. If there is a knock on Switzer it is he's just naturally a small-framed guy. He just isn't built like Welker was and might not be able to handle NFL level size tackling him or expand into a 16-game+ schedule very well.

Second, the scouting community loves to talk about Wes Welker, James White, Danny Amendola, Julian Endelman, Dion Lewis players when we see them on tape. Sometimes it just jumps out at you after long hours watching film.

But you rarely see those types of talents outside of New England.

I think when you don't have the system and the QB doing EXACTLY the right thing, these small guys just get murdered and don't last. Yes, when the play is executed perfect they are winners. They appear they can't be covered. But if it was that easy every team in the league would have a 5'-10" 185# slot receiver jitterbugging all over the middle of the field with option routes. Just remember the other team is trying to play defense. And this isn't the ACC anymore.

I like Switzer. His film is so much fun to watch. Just like Welker. I mean, down to a tee. Uncoverable at times. But just be careful with that.

 

[Steeltime]

that is a weakness of Bowser, he spent two seasons playing both football and basketball and I think this hampered his development. He needs to work on his footwork when engaging the tackle and his hands to keep the guy off him...but this can be taught. He improved vastly from his junior to senior season and did drop back a good deal in coverage. Getting his orbital bone busted really hurt both his and the teams season....

Fair points.

 

[steelpastor]

.

TMC... GREAT to see you here and looking forward to your input.


As many have often discussed… OLB is a serious concern in 2017. A young player (or two) at this position in the Draft is a MUST.

I have seen some youtube clips of Carl Lawson and he shows some skills. However, I am VERY CONCERNED about his ability to turn the corner... I mean like a turning tugboat kind-of-thing. I have looked thru hours of NFL Combine coverage to actually SEE his 3-cone on video… because it was HORRIBLE at 7.46. Yet, he had a very good Shuttle time of 4.19? Did he slip during the 3-cone? I know Dupree’s 3-cone was also not-so-good… but he is playing on the LEFT side… not as big a deal. Playing on the right side (as Lawson would, I assume?)… he must show much better bend around the corner. The only way that I take Lawson is if the coaches somehow plan to move Dupree to the right side and they are confident he will make it there. Short of that… JUST… SAY… NO!

If Reddick is gone (almost certain)… then maybe Watt in round one. Other than that… I like Willis or Rivers, in round two or Hall, Hendrickson or Bowser in round three.

Maybe it's just me? But I am of the mind to... PLEASE back away from Lawson. Otherwise… we will just have a faster version of the UN-BENDY Jarvis Jones.

Thank you guys (in particular, TMC & del) for all your hard work.

Someone, please... talk me in off the ledge! LOL.


Oh, and here's a closing thought. Kiper just adjusted his 2016 draft grade for the Steelers from "B" to "B+"??? Come on! Never have been a fan. In the immortal words of "The Wedding Singer" ...WHOOPITY-DOO!

.

 

[TMC]

Great to have you back TMC, your input has been sorely missed. My question for you is regarding the safety position. As I really think pass rusher, corner and WR are the first three picks this year. McKinley, Conley and Godwin my preferences.

However, what is your gauge on the safety from Texas AM . I know they were looking at the DE (Hall) and the WR (Reynolds) but Justin Evans looks like a player. Hits like a truck too with coverage skills. And yes, if Switzer is on the board in round 5 someone hack into Haley's laptop and threaten him. That kid is a player.

BTW, just for curiosity, what WAS your first impression of last years draft, before how well they turned out.


Sent from my iPad using Steeler Nation mobile app

He is okay. If he has issues, it is in his back end coverage or any man coverage. I don't necessarily think it is all speed, he ran a 4.57 (low time) at his pro day and that is decent for a safety, although Myles Garrett ran the same time on the same track, but anyhow. I think his issue is feel and anticipation. He doesn't get good jumps on the ball on the back end, doesn't read and anticipate well and is often late to the party. I'm not a fan in the 2nd or 3rd and I really think his home is at strong, down in the box. If he were bigger, say 215-220, I'd be more interested because I could use him in packages as a moneybacker, but he isn't even 200 pounds. I'm not replacing Sean Davis and I'm not moving him to free, even though I think he can play it. Let him continue to settle in at strong, draft a free with coverage, and you have TWO safeties that can cover.

I also think there are better safeties that will probably come later, like John Johnson, Tedric Thompson, Reyshawn Jenkins, Nate Gerry, or even Fish Smithson. Now, Smithson can struggle tackling, but his range and ball skills are vastly better. I'd even go with Clark, the CB from Michigan, later over drafting Evans in the 2nd/3rd where he is projected. There are so many better coverage safeties and the day of a strong just laying wood is over.

 

[TMC]

Switzer would immediately help you on punt returns as well. He was very good at that in college.

Like I said in my analysis, his college production is just almost a split image of Wes Welker. All that said, I have a few cautions about Switzer (not just from me but from other analysis as well around the web).

First, while his production and appearance on the field look like Welker, he isn't quite "built" like Welker was. Welker was stockier and stronger than people give him credit for. If there is a knock on Switzer it is he's just naturally a small-framed guy. He just isn't built like Welker was and might not be able to handle NFL level size tackling him or expand into a 16-game+ schedule very well.

Second, the scouting community loves to talk about Wes Welker, James White, Danny Amendola, Julian Endelman, Dion Lewis players when we see them on tape. Sometimes it just jumps out at you after long hours watching film.

But you rarely see those types of talents outside of New England.

I think when you don't have the system and the QB doing EXACTLY the right thing, these small guys just get murdered and don't last. Yes, when the play is executed perfect they are winners. They appear they can't be covered. But if it was that easy every team in the league would have a 5'-10" 185# slot receiver jitterbugging all over the middle of the field with option routes. Just remember the other team is trying to play defense. And this isn't the ACC anymore.

I like Switzer. His film is so much fun to watch. Just like Welker. I mean, down to a tee. Uncoverable at times. But just be careful with that.

I don't think he is Welker, but as I said, I think if you take the weapons at UNC, two big edge receivers (Bug Howard/Hollins) and two good slot receivers (Switzer/Proehl) and their RBs (Hood/Logan) and handed that to Tom Brady in that system, they would be hard to handle. If Trubisky were truly an elite QB, he should have carved up the ACC with those guys. And, since none of them look to be drafted ahead of the 5th, if I could get Hood, Switzer, and Howard with my 5th/6th/7th, I'd do that right now. I just Switzer is so damn quick out of his breaks, a heady route runner, a good route runner, and is deadly after the catch....just too good to pass up that late. My fear is, New England ends up with players tailor made for them. On rookie contracts.

 

[TMC]

.

TMC... GREAT to see you here and looking forward to your input.


As many have often discussed… OLB is a serious concern in 2017. A young player (or two) at this position in the Draft is a MUST.

I have seen some youtube clips of Carl Lawson and he shows some skills. However, I am VERY CONCERNED about his ability to turn the corner... I mean like a turning tugboat kind-of-thing. I have looked thru hours of NFL Combine coverage to actually SEE his 3-cone on video… because it was HORRIBLE at 7.46. Yet, he had a very good Shuttle time of 4.19? Did he slip during the 3-cone? I know Dupree’s 3-cone was also not-so-good… but he is playing on the LEFT side… not as big a deal. Playing on the right side (as Lawson would, I assume?)… he must show much better bend around the corner. The only way that I take Lawson is if the coaches somehow plan to move Dupree to the right side and they are confident he will make it there. Short of that… JUST… SAY… NO!

If Reddick is gone (almost certain)… then maybe Watt in round one. Other than that… I like Willis or Rivers, in round two or Hall, Hendrickson or Bowser in round three.

Maybe it's just me? But I am of the mind to... PLEASE back away from Lawson. Otherwise… we will just have a faster version of the UN-BENDY Jarvis Jones.

Thank you guys (in particular, TMC & del) for all your hard work.

Someone, please... talk me in off the ledge! LOL.


Oh, and here's a closing thought. Kiper just adjusted his 2016 draft grade for the Steelers from "B" to "B+"??? Come on! Never have been a fan. In the immortal words of "The Wedding Singer" ...WHOOPITY-DOO!

.

Let me start by stating this, Justin asked me to come back. He has several times. He even made some offers to entice and I just wasn't interested. I'd moved on. But, I decided to come and see the state of the board and was reading threads and read the thread started by Del. In it, as he was working through his draft guide, he made the comment that he wished I was here so we could compare notes. I felt he has been a good enough guy over the years to talk football with that IF I didn't come and chat with him, at the very least, I was just being a dick. So, you can thank Justin for getting the ball rolling, but it was truly Del that closed the deal, without even knowing he did it. In fact, I had already turned Justin down again.

When I watch Carl Lawson, I really see a lot of James Harrison. I truly do. In his build, in his power, and in the way he bends the edge. If you truly watch his game, he anticipates the block and you will see him dip his inside shoulder and get pretty compact on that side. When the blocker engages, he can take the impact and push through. Some guys bend the corner with speed. I mean, if you look at a Vic Beasley or Dee Ford, when they get to the point to turn, they are dipping so they can avoid the block and exploding to the QB. Lawson isn't. He isn't trying to avoid that block, he accepts it and powers through the edge. While you want a Von Miller, who can do both, having the core power to chop that edge means you are not getting as deep to turn. I am attaching a highlight video of Lawson. If you look at the 8 second mark, look at how he is engaged with the OL. He has the full weight of that guy on him and he is still able to power free. Then, the next play at 15 seconds, he has the OL on his left shoulder, should be blocked, but he is really able to drive through it for an easy sack. He isn't pressing the edge deep because he isn't afraid to take on the OL's power. He does that over and over. So, while bendy would be nice, he is able to get around that edge, he just does it differently. I seem similar things with Takk McKinley. Watt is more speed and finesse when he burns the corner.

I do get what you are stating though, everyone points to a lack of bend for some of these guys, and when compared to a Von Miller or Vic Beasley, sure. But, there are more ways to get to the QB. If you can power guys down, it is the shortest distance. His speed to bull and ability to jack OL up is very reminiscent of Harrison. I'm not stating he will be Harrison, but they have some similarities in their game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFqH1_q9-ew

 

[TMC]

Let me also add this about Lawson, if you watch the highlight tape, there is a snap where he is your DT. They put him INSIDE on stronger guards and let him play. So, as a LT, that threat to your inside gap is always there. You cannot over set deep. You have to respect that inside lane because power into that gap is the fastest route to busting up your QB. It is priority #1. Most NFL OL can get a deeper set because they can chop back inside quickly enough to catch speed. But, if you set that deep, can you maintain leverage to stop power? So, I see OLs setting shorter with Lawson, gives him that short porch to turn. Either way, with his power, once he develops more pass rush moves, like a really refined rip, maybe a club, would love to see a push pull with his power to snatch the OL off balance, just get better hand fighting, then that power bend on the edge and his bullrush become bigger weapons.

The key for me with Lawson is his medical.

 

[deljzc]

Thanks for the kind words TMC.

As you might know, this is the first year I tried my film study "blind". I looked at no pre-draft rankings. I didn't go to NFL draft scout or ESPN or NFL.com or Walters Football or anything. I looked for a decent website with the list of prospects, but I e-mailed the website to a friend and had him randomize all the players ranked round 6 or higher (back about 6 weeks ago). So I started at the top, watched film over at draftbreakdown.com and just start writing down what I saw.

I made a lot of mistakes and learned a lot doing it this way. And I have a lot more appreciation for what you did back in the day because your process was mostly in February/March.

One of the big difficulties I had is working through the inaccuracies in height/weight and the preconceived stereotypes that come along with that. Tim Williams was an example of that. Alabama had him listed at something like 6'-4" and 252 lbs. You pop the film in and his arms look long (compared to his body). He's getting OT's on their heels quick. He plays with decent power and can cross across a face of a tackle. I start getting excited because the other edge prospects are listed 6'-2" and here's this 6'-4" guy looking like a perfect OLB (this is also before I learned about his off-field and drug ****).

Then the combine rolls around and he's 6'-3" and 244 lbs. Not bad, but not like "great" either. Arms are average.

He's an example but there are many others that the combine changed mostly because you actually start getting REAL height/weight on guys. The film is still the film, but 10 lbs. matters. Hell, Greg Kittle was the opposite. He was listed 6'-3" and 235 lbs., loved his tape, athletic, makes every block in the open field and can really hit a target, but I can't get past the size limitations to bump his grade up too high. Now that he's really 6'-4" and almost 250 lbs., he's a really good prospect to me. I have him up in the late 3rd round (right where we are picking).

How did you resolve some of this stuff in your analysis? How did you fight through misinformation while you were watching film? Do you have examples of where different height/weight on a guy really effected your analysis of a prospect?

 

[Steelerfan81]

Let me start by stating this, Justin asked me to come back. He has several times. He even made some offers to entice and I just wasn't interested. I'd moved on. But, I decided to come and see the state of the board and was reading threads and read the thread started by Del. In it, as he was working through his draft guide, he made the comment that he wished I was here so we could compare notes. I felt he has been a good enough guy over the years to talk football with that IF I didn't come and chat with him, at the very least, I was just being a dick. So, you can thank Justin for getting the ball rolling, but it was truly Del that closed the deal, without even knowing he did it. In fact, I had already turned Justin down again.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFqH1_q9-ew

Now, if we could just get Dobre to swing back into the conversation they can start to errect my status outside the SN offices.