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He still would've had 30 million instead of 26(if he signs the tag), and a 3rd year at an extra 10 or 12 million. For them to cut him after two seasons, his dead money hit would be around 18 million I think. 30 million signing bonus prorated over the 5 years would be 6 million per, with 3 years left if cut after the first two.
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Regardless of what it cost the team as a CAP hit, that 3rd season is outside of his control. He wanted control, bet on himself that he could survive the season unhurt and not suspended. He won that bet.
Now, he either gets tagged for 14m+ and gets a big contract from someone next year or he gets a big contract from us this year.
Last year it was, sign $30m guaranteed contract or get, basically, $26m+ guaranteed, THEN get a big contract. By NOT signing it, he will be making that $26m+ and be getting a big contract next year. That $3m wasn't enough incentive, clearly. He was willing to bet that $3m and he did. Maybe, a $35m guarantee would have done it, who knows.
The overall result, as we discussed int he other thread (rookies having such a good year, players like Barklay coming in) is that his next contract after the 2 franchise tags might not be as much has he expected. In that happens (i.e. he is not as unique, anymore), he lost.
So, let's look at a reasonable probability. He gets 12.5m from us last year and 14.2m this year (i dont know exact numbers, but these are close enough) and he gets offered a $50m/5 year contract in year 3 ($30 guaranteed for 2 years and $6.667m for the last 3 years) . Versus the $60m/5 year contract.
After year 1, he is down $23.5m (assuming he gets most of $30m up front and basically, nothing for annual salary). After year 2, he is down $3.2m. Year 3 he is up $16.7m. Over the 3 year period he is up over $3m.
The only wild card is injuries. He can make sure he stays clean and he can make sure he continues to perform at a top level. The next 3-4 years are key, because those are the most likely that he will be able to collect. Over the next 3 years he is up over $16m and over the next 4 he is up over $6.5m. And that is with a fairly low contract in year 3.
