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The Coronavirus thread

CharlesDavenport said:
Ridiculous. There are always people living on credit/paycheck to paycheck. Record employment, GDP - the longest expansion in US history. Nothing fake about it, and I hope you know that and are just acting stupid. This isn't an arguable point.
Click to expand...

Oh I'm quite sure it isn't an act.
 
Tim Steelersfan said:
This article is SUPER. I encourage everyone to read. Does a good job of explaining how the stats are so incredibly misleading.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19

After watching the outbreak of COVID-19 for the past two months, I’ve followed the pace of the infection, its severity, and how our world is tackling the virus. While we should be concerned and diligent, the situation has dramatically elevated to a mob-like fear spreading faster than COVID-19 itself. When 13% of Americans believe they are currently infected with COVID-19 (mathematically impossible), full-on panic is blocking our ability to think clearly and determine how to deploy our resources to stop this virus. Over three-fourths of Americans are scared of what we are doing to our society through law and hysteria, not of infection or spreading COVID-19 to those most vulnerable.

The following article is a systematic overview of COVID-19 driven by data from medical professionals and academic articles that will help you understand what is going on (sources include CDC, WHO, NIH, NHS, University of Oxford, John Hopkins, Stanford, Harvard, NEJM, JAMA, and several others). I’m quite experienced at understanding virality, how things grow, and data. In my vocation, I’m most known for popularizing the “growth hacking movement” in Silicon Valley that specializes in driving rapid and viral adoption of technology products. Data is data. Our focus here isn’t treatments but numbers. You don’t need a special degree to understand what the data says and doesn’t say. Numbers are universal.

I hope you walk away with a more informed perspective on how you can help and fight back against the hysteria that is driving our country into a dark place. You can help us focus our scarce resources on those who are most vulnerable, who need our help.

Note: The following graphs and numbers are as of mid-March 2020. Things are moving quickly, so I update this article twice a day. Most graphs are as of March 20th, 2020. Follow me on Twitter if you would like to see the updated graphics and articles.

Best,

Aaron Ginn

Here are the chapters involved:

Table of Contents
  1. Total cases are the wrong metric
  2. Time lapsing new cases gives us perspective
  3. On a per-capita basis, we shouldn’t be panicking
  4. COVID-19 is spreading
  5. Watch the Bell Curve
  6. A low probability of catching COVID-19
  7. Common transmission modes
  8. COVID-19 is likely to burn off in the summer
  9. Children and Teens aren’t at risk
  10. Strong, but unknown viral effect
  11. What about asymptomatic spread?
  12. 93% of people who think they are positive aren’t
  13. 1% of cases will be severe
  14. Declining fatality rate
  15. So what should we do?
  16. Start with basic hygiene
  17. More data
  18. Open schools
  19. Open up public spaces
  20. Support business and productivity
  21. People fear what the government will do, not infection
  22. Expand medical capacity
  23. Don’t let them forget it and vote

Preview:
Click to expand...

I was just about to post this. Beat me to it.

Convid-19 by the numbers.
 
CharlesDavenport said:
Ridiculous. There are always people living on credit/paycheck to paycheck. Record employment, GDP - the longest expansion in US history. Nothing fake about it, and I hope you know that and are just acting stupid. This isn't an arguable point.
Click to expand...

You sound exactly like everyone that scoffed at the notion of a housing bubble.
 
This isn't gonna sit well with 2 or 3 of our regulars. And yes I'm shifting to politics for a moment since so many are screaming about the President in this thread. Seems "most" Americans approve of his handling of this situation.

https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/trump-approval-rating-pops/

Trump approval rating pops…

According to ABC News, a new Ipsos poll released Friday shows that more Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak than not despite a high number of people saying their lives have been upended. This is a massive jump from what it was last week:

In the new poll, 55% of Americans approve of the president’s management of the crisis, compared to 43% who disapprove. Trump’s approval on this issue is up from last week, when the numbers were nearly reversed. Only 43% approved of Trump’s handling of the pandemic and 54% disapproved in last week’s poll.

Over the course of a week, the president has shifted his approach and tone, giving daily briefings on the crisis since Saturday, alongside the White House task force leading the response to the coronavirus and announcing some severe measures to combat the virus. He’s also taken on a more somber tone, saying of his own tenor “people actually liked it” as the reality of the scale of the virus set in.

This week, 72% said their lives have been disrupted in some way by the coronavirus, either by canceling going out to dinner, taking a vacation, or attending religious services, among other options, a massive 46-point leap from last week when only about one-quarter of Americans said the same.
Click to expand...

The approval is also split down party lines, though it should be noted that even approval numbers among Democrats has doubled since last week and now sits at 30 percent. Sixty-nine disapprove but that’s down from 86 percent. Republicans overwhelmingly approve of the job Trump is doing at a whopping 92 percent.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/New?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#New</a> National <a href="https://twitter.com/HarrisPoll?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@HarrisPoll</a> (3/17-18),<br><br>Trump's Approval Rating<br><br>Overall: 53%<br>Handling COVID: 56%<br>Stimulating jobs: 60%<br>The economy: 60%<br>Fighting terrorism 58%<br>Immigration: 53%<br>Foriegn affairs: 52%<br>Administrating the government: 51%<a href="https://t.co/xLRxtvgAf9">https://t.co/xLRxtvgAf9</a> <a href="https://t.co/YhZjcPldmc">pic.twitter.com/YhZjcPldmc</a></p>— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) <a href="https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1240840590469869568?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

New National Harris Poll (3/17-18) — Trump Approval Rating

Overall: 53%
Handling COVID: 56%
Stimulating jobs: 60%
The economy: 60%
Fighting terrorism 58%
Immigration: 53%
Foriegn affairs: 52%
 
The reality is Trump took the unpopular step of travel bans long before anyone including the WHO wanted to do anything. He was called racist and xenophobic for that. If he had decided to produce 100,000 ventilators and 50 million masks and shut down society a month ago most people would have said he's absolutely insane.

I wish he didn't sound so dumb a lot of the time but all in all I don't think anyone else would have handled this situation any faster or better.
 
Sarge said:
Tibs, I’m not scared.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's a question of being scared or not scared of the virus itself. Though the fact it seems to be an extremely severe case of pneumonia which rapidly fills the lungs with fluid is not something anyone wants to deal with. I think it's more of a moral obligation we do whatever we can to reduce the spread, and keep our friends and loved ones safe.

It came swooping in hard and fast, country by country, and the numbers are now spiking in Europe & stateside. We need to make sure it doesn't get out of hand as it has in Italy, where, quite frankly, there is no end in sight. Over 800 people died today, it's been at a tick around 700+ per day over the past week. At this rate there may be over 1,000 dead per day from a highly contagious virus with no cure or vaccine, as of yet. And this is Italy, a country already on full lockdown and with stringent curfew and shelter in place measures. That should make us all sit up, take notice, and take a deep breath. No need for panic, but there's also no need for people to be flippant and dismissive. That is being irresponsible in my book, particularly seeing the number of cases rising significantly in the States over the past week. The situation sucks, in every which way. The economic fallout will be enormous, already is. The loss of human life and the effect it will have on people around the globe is substantial.

<iframe scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets/widget_iframe.d0f13be8321eb432fba28cfc1c3351b1.html?origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.steelernationforums.com" title="Twitter settings iframe" style="display: none;" frameborder="0"></iframe><iframe id="rufous-sandbox" scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" style="position: absolute; visibility: hidden; display: none; width: 0px; height: 0px; padding: 0px; border: medium none;" title="Twitter analytics iframe" frameborder="0"></iframe>
 
Troglodyte said:
You sound exactly like everyone that scoffed at the notion of a housing bubble.
Click to expand...

The only one that scoffed at the notion of a housing bubble was Barney Frank. Most saw the folly of lending money to those who had no chance of repaying.
 
Tibs said:
I don't think it's a question of being scared or not scared of the virus itself. Though the fact it seems to be an extremely severe case of pneumonia which rapidly fills the lungs with fluid is not something anyone wants to deal with. I think it's more of a moral obligation we do whatever we can to reduce the spread, and keep our friends and loved ones safe.

It came swooping in hard and fast, country by country, and the numbers are now spiking in Europe & stateside. We need to make sure it doesn't get out of hand as it has in Italy, where, quite frankly, there is no end in sight. Over 800 people died today, it's been at a tick around 700+ per day over the past week. At this rate there may be over 1,000 dead per day from a highly contagious virus with no cure or vaccine, as of yet. And this is Italy, a country already on full lockdown and with stringent curfew and shelter in place measures. That should make us all sit up, take notice, and take a deep breath. No need for panic, but there's also no need for people to be flippant and dismissive. That is being irresponsible in my book, particularly seeing the number of cases rising significantly in the States over the past week. The situation sucks, in every which way. The economic fallout will be enormous, already is. The loss of human life and the effect it will have on people around the globe is substantial.

<iframe scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets/widget_iframe.d0f13be8321eb432fba28cfc1c3351b1.html?origin=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.steelernationforums.com" title="Twitter settings iframe" style="display: none;" frameborder="0"></iframe><iframe id="rufous-sandbox" scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" style="position: absolute; visibility: hidden; display: none; width: 0px; height: 0px; padding: 0px; border: medium none;" title="Twitter analytics iframe" frameborder="0"></iframe>
Click to expand...

No need to panic but I do agree we should be courteous.
That goes for the common cold and flu season too. Cover your mouth when you cough, wash your hands.

If this panic has shown me anything it’s how dependent, uncourteous and unprepared a lot of my fellow citizens are.
Just going around trying to shop and seeing people still being pricks when coughing etc.

Some people do need a nanny state cause they’re like kids.
 
Though the fact it seems to be an extremely severe case of pneumonia which rapidly fills the lungs with fluid is not something anyone wants to deal with.
Click to expand...

10-20% of cases (current estimates, the actual percentage is probably much lower because we don't know how many get it and never see a doctor or get tested) require hospitalization. So to say coronavirus is "an extremely severe case of pneumonia which rapidly fills the lungs with fluid" is not accurate. It's largely a mild illness with a fairly high rate of serious complications.

That's not being dismissive or flippant, it's being factual and not fear-mongering.
 
Troglodyte said:
Think of all the rural counties with no cases that have to follow the shutdown. I don’t like that Fauci didn’t say “some Americans”. Are we all going to be isolating six weeks from now as the New York cases slowly trickle to a halt? I fear that we will.
Click to expand...
**** city folks

Sent from my SM-N950W using Steeler Nation mobile app
 
oneforthebus said:
10-20% of cases (current estimates, the actual percentage is probably much lower because we don't know how many get it and never see a doctor or get tested) require hospitalization. So to say coronavirus is "an extremely severe case of pneumonia which rapidly fills the lungs with fluid" is not accurate. It's largely a mild illness with a fairly high rate of serious complications.

That's not being dismissive or flippant, it's being factual and not fear-mongering.
Click to expand...

I bet more people get it and never know it, than people who get into the statistics of confirmed cases. The amount of hysteria is beyond logical. It seems so many just immerse themselves in fear and spreading it.


Just a bad combo. Just see how people get when you shut them in another week,two weeks...4,5,6... Anything past a few weeks and you're going to see bigger trouble than what you're trying to fix.


I refuse to be part of the hysterical apocalypse. It doesn't mean I'm not staying away from people either, but I'm certainly not going to ball up in corner waiting for the world to end.
 
Tibs said:
Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Are Growing Faster In The United States Than Any Other Country In The World
https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevor...-any-other-country-in-the-world/#6158ee857e72

960x0.jpg





960x0.jpg



Plot of coronavirus cases in the United States over the last month (2/19 to 3/19)
​
Click to expand...
When you go asymtotic, only two things can happen, and one is The Rapture.

Czech yer data, sir.

Sent from my SM-N950W using Steeler Nation mobile app
 
oneforthebus said:
10-20% of cases (current estimates, the actual percentage is probably much lower because we don't know how many get it and never see a doctor or get tested) require hospitalization. So to say coronavirus is "an extremely severe case of pneumonia which rapidly fills the lungs with fluid" is not accurate. It's largely a mild illness with a fairly high rate of serious complications. That's not being dismissive or flippant, it's being factual and not fear-mongering.
Click to expand...
Just a simple question for you. You do realize the virus is highly contagious and spreads freely? Whereby some people have little to no symptoms, others have mild symptoms, and yet others develop acute symptoms, which results in rapid deterioration and death. It's all the same virus, part of the same chain, with varying levels of symptoms, depending on the person who is afflicted. So somewhere along the line, as responsible members of society, is it not our duty to make sure we're doing whatever we can to limit this from spinning out of control? Who knows how this will affect someone we know, a parent, a grandparent, a co-worker? During a worldwide pandemic which is showing an alarming spike in cases, I'm not sure what the point is to emphasize the lower-risk end of the spectrum, when it spreads from patient to patient to patient until it hits someone hard who ends up on a ventilator with a plastic bag over their head, gasping for their last breath.

Looking at this thing honestly, at face value is also being factual and not fear-mongering.
 
Last edited:
Tibs said:
Looking at this thing honestly, at face value is also being factual and not fear-mongering.
Click to expand...

If you spread disinformation, that is fear mongering.
If you share only "scary" information, that is fear mongering.
 
Tim Steelersfan said:
If you spread disinformation, that is fear mongering.
If you share only "scary" information, that is fear mongering.
Click to expand...

Don't be scared, be informed, Tim. It's the adult thing to do.

And here is some good news, the kind you like to hear.

Coronavirus: Hungarian NNK Team Successfully Isolates Virus, says Chief Medical Officer
https://hungarytoday.hu/coronavirus-hungarian-isolates-nnk/

Researchers at the national security lab of Hungary’s National Centre for Public Health (NNK) have become the first in the country to successfully isolate the new coronavirus that causes the Covid-19 disease, the chief medical officer said on Tuesday.

The breakthrough will allow scientists to begin developing a vaccine against the virus and to test various therapies, Cecília Müller told a press conference after a meeting of the operative board coordinating the epidemic response.

The team that isolated the virus was led by virologist Zoltán Kiss, she said, adding that it would provide live and non-live samples of the virus to both Hungarian and foreign researchers.

Müller also said the number of coronavirus patients in Hungary is expected to reach the hundreds over the coming days, adding that the spread of the virus was in line with NNK’s projections.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Tim Steelersfan said:
This article is SUPER. I encourage everyone to read. Does a good job of explaining how the stats are so incredibly misleading.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19

After watching the outbreak of COVID-19 for the past two months, I’ve followed the pace of the infection, its severity, and how our world is tackling the virus. While we should be concerned and diligent, the situation has dramatically elevated to a mob-like fear spreading faster than COVID-19 itself. When 13% of Americans believe they are currently infected with COVID-19 (mathematically impossible), full-on panic is blocking our ability to think clearly and determine how to deploy our resources to stop this virus. Over three-fourths of Americans are scared of what we are doing to our society through law and hysteria, not of infection or spreading COVID-19 to those most vulnerable.

The following article is a systematic overview of COVID-19 driven by data from medical professionals and academic articles that will help you understand what is going on (sources include CDC, WHO, NIH, NHS, University of Oxford, John Hopkins, Stanford, Harvard, NEJM, JAMA, and several others). I’m quite experienced at understanding virality, how things grow, and data. In my vocation, I’m most known for popularizing the “growth hacking movement” in Silicon Valley that specializes in driving rapid and viral adoption of technology products. Data is data. Our focus here isn’t treatments but numbers. You don’t need a special degree to understand what the data says and doesn’t say. Numbers are universal.

I hope you walk away with a more informed perspective on how you can help and fight back against the hysteria that is driving our country into a dark place. You can help us focus our scarce resources on those who are most vulnerable, who need our help.

Note: The following graphs and numbers are as of mid-March 2020. Things are moving quickly, so I update this article twice a day. Most graphs are as of March 20th, 2020. Follow me on Twitter if you would like to see the updated graphics and articles.

Best,

Aaron Ginn

Here are the chapters involved:

Table of Contents
  1. Total cases are the wrong metric
  2. Time lapsing new cases gives us perspective
  3. On a per-capita basis, we shouldn’t be panicking
  4. COVID-19 is spreading
  5. Watch the Bell Curve
  6. A low probability of catching COVID-19
  7. Common transmission modes
  8. COVID-19 is likely to burn off in the summer
  9. Children and Teens aren’t at risk
  10. Strong, but unknown viral effect
  11. What about asymptomatic spread?
  12. 93% of people who think they are positive aren’t
  13. 1% of cases will be severe
  14. Declining fatality rate
  15. So what should we do?
  16. Start with basic hygiene
  17. More data
  18. Open schools
  19. Open up public spaces
  20. Support business and productivity
  21. People fear what the government will do, not infection
  22. Expand medical capacity
  23. Don’t let them forget it and vote

Preview:
Click to expand...

That may be the best article on this that I've read yet, very informative. This isn't a catastrophe.
 
Tibs said:
Just a simple question for you. You do realize the virus is highly contagious and spreads freely? Whereby some people have little to no symptoms, others have mild symptoms, and yet others develop acute symptoms, which results in rapid deterioration and death. It's all the same virus, part of the same chain, with varying levels of symptoms, depending on the person who is afflicted. So somewhere along the line, as responsible members of society, is it not our duty to make sure we're doing whatever we can to limit this from spinning out of control? Who knows how this will affect someone we know, a parent, a grandparent, a co-worker? During a worldwide pandemic which is showing an alarming spike in cases, I'm not sure what the point is to emphasize the lower-risk end of the spectrum, when it spreads from patient to patient to patient until it hits someone hard who ends up on a ventilator with a plastic bag over their head, gasping for their last breath.

Looking at this thing honestly, at face value is also being factual and not fear-mongering.
Click to expand...

So you seem to be saying that exaggerating and overstating the risks and inciting panic is justified because some people will get sick and some people will die.

Do you have no concern whatsoever about the risks of needless panic? Of measures that will cause real, serious harm to people...months of education loss, businesses permanently shuttered, large swaths of the population unable to feed, clothe and house themselves for months or years to come. Entire lifetimes of blood sweat and tears flushed down the drain. Do you think all that is irrelevant compared to saving the lives of mostly elderly people with underlying health issues who will probably die of something else in the next few months anyway? Yes, cold and harsh I know. I’m not in a high risk group but if I was I wouldn’t want my children’s and grandchildren’s entire futures destroyed to give me a few months or even a year or two more on this earth.
 
oneforthebus said:
So you seem to be saying that exaggerating and overstating the risks and inciting panic is justified because some people will get sick and some people will die.
Click to expand...

Who is exaggerating and overstating the risks? Who is inciting panic?

Is it the daily live press conferences by the WH covid-19 response team? Is it the fact Trump shut down travel from China and Europe? Is it the call for 500 million facemasks by the WH? Or the involvement of FEMA in a nationwide response? Is it governors and mayors - in daily consultation with the WH - who are shutting down cities around the country? Is it the CDC posting their directives to try to limit the spread of the virus? Is it Trump reaching out to the private sector to involve them in the effort. Is it the media that is doing their jobs reporting on this?

I'm confused, if you don't think this is something to be taken seriously, why don't you blame the WH & the government for taking all these drastic steps and measures. If you think this whole covid-19 situation should be brushed away and dismissed?
 
Last edited:
And wouldn't you know, Italy severely overstated it's Coronavirus patient death rates:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Unbelievable — Italy admits it had overestimated its death rate from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#coronavirus</a>. And Germany’s death rate is only 0.3% of cases.<a href="https://t.co/AuivADGAbQ">https://t.co/AuivADGAbQ</a></p>— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) <a href="https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow/status/1241495236657938446?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
My thought process tells me that we will be a stronger nation at the end of this. We really got way to sectored off as a nation. steel, drugs, etc mostly done overseas. look at x look at aks. stock over last several years. we have relied on foreign steel and drugs way to long.

Trump has been right for years. America 1st. Make it economically right to make everything we need, right hear in the good old USA
 
Tibs said:
Who is exaggerating and overstating the risks? Who is inciting panic?
Click to expand...

The MSM and a good majority of bureaucrats, and the sheeple who follow them.
 
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