Steelers select Dri Archer in Round 3

[t-man]

McCluster is a valid comparison. In fact, he may be one of the only under 180 pound RB/WR/specialists that compare well. He is also one of the only players that size to get a second contract in the NFL and aside from one fair season, he really has not done much. If that is the high water mark for a 3rd round pick, so be it.

And, are we really so hot to get a specialist that we are pimping Devon Hester? Sure, he returns kicks. The Steelers dumped guys like Stefan Logan because ALL he could do is return kicks. If that is his only value, pretty much could have drafted a punter in the 3rd....but that would have likely pissed people off.

And I disagreed when they let Logan go as well. If you have a guy who gives your offense a shorter field, he is worth something. Perhaps after seeing some 8-8 seasons the thinking of "we can plug any guy in here and be fine" has changed to "skill positions equal wins". Again, we will see how he does.

Joe

 

[Vader]

McCluster is 1 inch taller than Archer and McCluster has smaller hands and shorter arms (same weight). That is as legit as any comparison with Rainey. Unfortunately the back and forth of this thread is ridiculous...on one side there are boosters bringing up comparisons like Willie Parker that don't make much sense and the only side denies ALL comparisons except to Rainey because Archer can never be anything except an exact clone of Rainey.

Ok let's use McCluster. McCluster is on his 2nd team after his first team didn't want him back. Would you trade a 3rd round pick for McCluster right now? McCluster has also started almost half his games. Something Tomlin and Haley admit won't happen with Archer. I just value 3rd round picks more. McCluster is the very tip top ceiling for Archer and that's only for IF they can teach him to return punts and not fumble.

 

[keslerclan]

He has no chance at 9 touches a game. With all due respect, you're overvaluing what these scatbacks do. A realistic projection, even if he were a better prospect, would be closer to 3-4 rushes and 2-3 catches as a best-case scenario. You want him to put up high-end #2 RB carries AND high-end slot WR catches AND return every kickoff? Good luck. Dude was frequently injured in school, and was only a part-time player there, so I admire your optimism. Not to mention his extreme fumbilitis, but I'm sure he'll stay on the field for 16 games with a backbreaking workload.

Darren Sproles has had two 1,000-yard seasons in his career, BTW. He never comes anywhere close to 5 YPC or 10 YPC. Very, very few RBs ever do. Not sure why you think he's already the best and most productive scatback and KR on the planet.

Not going to argue with the expectations of touches/gm as IMO, he will be lucky to average 1-2 carries and 1-2 targets/catches/game BUT for the love of Christ, will you PLEASE look at his stats as a player before you call him a fumbler! He had 427 touches with a total of 13 fumbles...that is less than FRANCO ******* HARRIS's career percentage! Look it up. Franco had 3256 touches with 90 fumbles. That is, he fumbled 2.76% of the time while Archer is at 2.70%

 

[Vader]

Almost 3 inches taller is not "more than 3 inches taller". If we have to be so rigid in making comparisons, let's be precise.

Fair enough I'll be sure to hold you to it.

 

[Idioteque]

Idiot he had 325 carries and numerous touches his junior year. He hurt his ankle in the first game his senior year. Was listed as probable with a shoulder for a game. Maybe you should be a author cause you love exaggerating and making up ****.

LOL. His only season above 68 carries. Clearly, he's Tomlinson, what was I thinking?

Again.. also hurt his knee in his bowl. Even as a part-timer.

 

[SteelerAl]

McCluster is a valid comparison. In fact, he may be one of the only under 180 pound RB/WR/specialists that compare well. He is also one of the only players that size to get a second contract in the NFL and aside from one fair season, he really has not done much. If that is the high water mark for a 3rd round pick, so be it.

And, are we really so hot to get a specialist that we are pimping Devon Hester? Sure, he returns kicks. The Steelers dumped guys like Stefan Logan because ALL he could do is return kicks. If that is his only value, pretty much could have drafted a punter in the 3rd....but that would have likely pissed people off.

I've said already in this thread 1) I would not have made the pick (would have taken Ellington or Bryant) and 2) I do think McCluster is Archer's ceiling / high water mark. All I'm arguing against is the idea that Archer is certain - or damn near certain - to be a complete bust offering absolutely zero value. The Titans gave McCluster a 3-year deal for $12 million with $4.5 guaranteed...obviously Whiz thinks he is getting something of value.

 

[t-man]

Ok let's use McCluster. McCluster is on his 2nd team after his first team didn't want him back. Would you trade a 3rd round pick for McCluster right now? McCluster has also started almost half his games. Something Tomlin and Haley admit won't happen with Archer. I just value 3rd round picks more. McCluster is the very tip top ceiling for Archer and that's only for IF they can teach him to return punts and not fumble.

You value 3rd round picks more than what? THIS is what I don't get, the dude hasn't taken a ************* snap yet, and fully one out of every 4 3rd round picks doesn't make it in the nfl, so WHAT exactly makes you VALUE the 3rd round pick? The ******* amazing stats that come when 90 plus ******* guys got picked AHEAD of you? You do know that's how the draft ******* works, right? Other people pick and then you pick, and in the 3rd round, at least two other full rounds of picks have been taken.

Every mother ******* year there is some guy that people just can't imagine EVER making it. We had arguments a while back on this board, you know, once Timmons started to look pretty decent at ILB, that he was STILL a bust because we drafted him to play OLB. That's right, some people are so ******* hot to label a guy a bust so they can point back to what they said that they want to label a guy a bust because he switched positions. I posted a bit ago that Jack ******* Lambert was also drafted to play OLB, and moved inside, ************* busts all over the place.

At any rate, this guy is going to be a return specialist/gimmic play guy, and he might one day be more, but that's what he is, that's who we selected in the 3rd round. If some 6th rounder, or UDFA ends up a full time starter, and this kid ends up on the street, just pretend the starter was picked in the 3rd, and this kid was the UDFA, so you can sleep at night. I won't be giving a ****, because all these ******* are scrubs till they do something in the NFL to me, I've seen too many Jamarcus Russels and Ryan Leafs to think otherwise.

Joe

 

[Idioteque]

Not going to argue with the expectations of touches/gm as IMO, he will be lucky to average 1-2 carries and 1-2 targets/catches/game BUT for the love of Christ, will you PLEASE look at his stats as a player before you call him a fumbler! He had 427 touches with a total of 13 fumbles...that is less than FRANCO ******* HARRIS's career percentage! Look it up. Franco had 3256 touches with 90 fumbles. That is, he fumbled 2.76% of the time while Archer is at 2.70%

Mendenhall fumbled 13 times in his entire career. 427 touches is about a season and a half's worth of touches for a feature back. If a feature back fumbles 13 times a year, he's in trouble.

 

[antdrewjosh]

The only reason he didnt approach those numbers again is because his coach wanted to move him to the slot more to help him get ready for the Pros. Something he regrets. So if not for the coaching move and ankle injury he probably approaches those numbers again.

 

[SteelerAl]

Ok let's use McCluster. McCluster is on his 2nd team after his first team didn't want him back.

You can say that about a lot of quality NFL players, unfortunately for us you can say it about Keenan Lewis.

Would you trade a 3rd round pick for McCluster right now?

I wouldn't trade the #97 pick for McCluster right now (given his contract). Might give up a 4th if he was making minimum salaries, which isn't too far off what we did in selecting Archer.

And I'm willing to say that McCluster is PROBABLY the ceiling for Archer. I'm not all knowing; however, so I am willing to accept there is a possibility Archer will turn into a Sproles or an effective slot WR on par with Tavon Austin. The fact that your posts are written in such absolutes (like saying there is no way on God's green earth than Archer can ever be better than McCluster) is what gets people so riled up. You are not all knowing.

 

[JupiterBnG]

Lets say he had 43 KR next year and averages 25 a return = 1075 a year.

"1075 yards" is kind of a fiction, though. Considering most of those kicks would be fielded in our end zone, the difference between him averaging 25 yards per return (assuming he returned every one) and just taking a knee is only about 215 yards difference in field position, assuming you measure his 25 yards from the goal line, and not where he starts in the end zone (i.e. he averages getting to the 25 yard line).

 

[Vader]

You value 3rd round picks more than what? THIS is what I don't get, the dude hasn't taken a ************* snap yet, and fully one out of every 4 3rd round picks doesn't make it in the nfl, so WHAT exactly makes you VALUE the 3rd round pick? The ******* amazing stats that come when 90 plus ******* guys got picked AHEAD of you? You do know that's how the draft ******* works, right? Other people pick and then you pick, and in the 3rd round, at least two other full rounds of picks have been taken.

Every mother ******* year there is some guy that people just can't imagine EVER making it. We had arguments a while back on this board, you know, once Timmons started to look pretty decent at ILB, that he was STILL a bust because we drafted him to play OLB. That's right, some people are so ******* hot to label a guy a bust so they can point back to what they said that they want to label a guy a bust because he switched positions. I posted a bit ago that Jack ******* Lambert was also drafted to play OLB, and moved inside, ************* busts all over the place.

At any rate, this guy is going to be a return specialist/gimmic play guy, and he might one day be more, but that's what he is, that's who we selected in the 3rd round. If some 6th rounder, or UDFA ends up a full time starter, and this kid ends up on the street, just pretend the starter was picked in the 3rd, and this kid was the UDFA, so you can sleep at night. I won't be giving a ****, because all these ******* are scrubs till they do something in the NFL to me, I've seen too many Jamarcus Russels and Ryan Leafs to think otherwise.

Joe

If you can't read and understand what my point is by now you aren't going to get it. I'd NEVER draft a 5'8 173 lbs. RB who's ceiling is Dexter McCluster in the 3rd round. You didn't answer my question either. Would you give up a 3rd rounder for McCluster?

The rest of your post is just complaining about Timmons and other posters. Not really germane to this discussion. I also never said the Timmons pick was bad solely on the fact that they moved him inside. But I don't want to turn this into another Timmons debate.

 

[keslerclan]

Mendenhall fumbled 13 times in his entire career. 427 touches is about a season and a half's worth of touches for a feature back. If a feature back fumbles 13 times a year, he's in trouble.

Sure hurt the careers of Franco and Tony Dorsett...who fumbled an average of 11.785 times per 427 touches and 11.486 times per 427 touches respectively.

Projecting "Archer, the Fumbler", he would be at 11.529 fumbles which puts him RIGHT between 2 HOF RBs in fumbles per touch. WOW! Why did those FUMBLERS get drafted?

 

[Vader]

You can say that about a lot of quality NFL players, unfortunately for us you can say it about Keenan Lewis.



I wouldn't trade the #97 pick for McCluster right now (given his contract). Might give up a 4th if he was making minimum salaries, which isn't too far off what we did in selecting Archer.

The Steelers didn't want Lewis. Obviously they don't feel like they made a mistake. Maybe they didn't like his locker room issues? However, McCluster doesn't have those issues. BTW ask Tomlin if he would redraft Lewis if he had to do it again. You think Tomlin would draft him again at the 96th pick overall for his one year of production?

Would you rather have Lewis or Archer? Lewis was drafted at 96th overall. I'd rather take someone who had a higher ceiling and the ability to start than a trick play smallish RB that can never start.

 

[SteelerAl]

"1075 yards" is kind of a fiction, though. Considering most of those kicks would be fielded in our end zone, the difference between him averaging 25 yards per return (assuming he returned every one) and just taking a knee is only about 215 yards difference in field position, assuming you measure his 25 yards from the goal line, and not where he starts in the end zone (i.e. he averages getting to the 25 yard line).

Good point. It will be interesting to see how much our average starting field position improves this year vs. last year where our return men (Dwyer, Felix Jones etc.) were pretty much bottom of the barrel as far as returning kicks goes.

 

[Vader]

Sure hurt the careers of Franco and Tony Dorsett...who fumbled an average of 11.785 times per 427 touches and 11.486 times per 427 touches respectively.

Projecting "Archer, the Fumbler", he would be at 11.529 fumbles which puts him RIGHT between 2 HOF RBs in fumbles per touch. WOW! Why did those FUMBLERS get drafted?

That's a stretch from playing part time in the Mid American Conference in 2014 to being a starter in 1970's and 80's NFL football.

 

[Idioteque]

You value 3rd round picks more than what? THIS is what I don't get, the dude hasn't taken a ************* snap yet, and fully one out of every 4 3rd round picks doesn't make it in the nfl, so WHAT exactly makes you VALUE the 3rd round pick? The ******* amazing stats that come when 90 plus ******* guys got picked AHEAD of you? You do know that's how the draft ******* works, right? Other people pick and then you pick, and in the 3rd round, at least two other full rounds of picks have been taken.

Every mother ******* year there is some guy that people just can't imagine EVER making it. We had arguments a while back on this board, you know, once Timmons started to look pretty decent at ILB, that he was STILL a bust because we drafted him to play OLB. That's right, some people are so ******* hot to label a guy a bust so they can point back to what they said that they want to label a guy a bust because he switched positions. I posted a bit ago that Jack ******* Lambert was also drafted to play OLB, and moved inside, ************* busts all over the place.

At any rate, this guy is going to be a return specialist/gimmic play guy, and he might one day be more, but that's what he is, that's who we selected in the 3rd round. If some 6th rounder, or UDFA ends up a full time starter, and this kid ends up on the street, just pretend the starter was picked in the 3rd, and this kid was the UDFA, so you can sleep at night. I won't be giving a ****, because all these ******* are scrubs till they do something in the NFL to me, I've seen too many Jamarcus Russels and Ryan Leafs to think otherwise.

Joe

What all of us are doing, supporters and detractors both, is examining a player's profile, then evaluating its fit into the NFL. Some see his 40 time and cum in their pants, assuming that Madden = NFL football and Archer will have to do is run straight ahead. As for me, I can't find a single player Archer's size becoming a productive player in recent NFL history. When you also consider his injury history, fumbling problem, academic ineligibility, competition level, lack of fundamentals, and and lack of a defined role (which even our coaches concede in their gushing, glowing press conferences).. those incredibly long odds get even murkier. Again, we did not draft Darren Sproles or Brian Westbrook. We drafted a miniscule version of them, one who never carried the load in college, fumbles a lot, and missed notable time with injuries.

As for his size. Yes, NFL players pack on weight. But presumably, all or most of them do. If we're going to assume Archer will put on a little weight, then we need to assume Devin Hester and Dexter McCluster did as well, and stop comparing their combine weights. Common sense dictates he will always be at least about 20 pounds behind the 8-ball. As for Archer's potential to add mass, I have plenty of doubt. He's a small-framed guy who's already 23. Dunno about you, but I was done growing at 23. All the lifting in the world wasn't going to make my frame get longer or my shoulders more broad and able to pack on 15 pounds of lean muscle mass. I think it's more than safe to assume his best-case scenario is to play around 5'7 180, and nobody that size cuts in on the next level. Some guys with similar builds may become good kick returners for a few years before they inevitably snap in half; even then, I don't value special teams quite as much as some do. And kickoff returns are being phased out of the league; they might be completely gone within a few years.

Just because some third-round picks bust doesn't mean you throw darts at the wall. (Granted, busts are subjective; you told me Colclough and Marcus Gilbert weren't actually busts.) A lot of first-rounder bust too; I guess we should gamble all of those away too?

 

[JupiterBnG]

Good point. It will be interesting to see how much our average starting field position improves this year vs. last year where our return men (Dwyer, Felix Jones etc.) were pretty much bottom of the barrel as far as returning kicks goes.

Don't get me wrong... you can't break off a TD run on a kickoff if you take a knee, and I'll take the ball on the 25 instead of the 20 any time I can get it. But considering "1075 kick return yards" to be significant is akin to saying a RB that takes a handoff 6 yards behind the line of scrimmage and gets tackled 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage "gained 4 yards."

 

[SteelerAl]

The Steelers didn't want Lewis. Obviously they don't feel like they made a mistake. Maybe they didn't like his locker room issues? However, McCluster doesn't have those issues. BTW ask Tomlin if he would redraft Lewis if he had to do it again. You think Tomlin would draft him again at the 96th pick overall for his one year of production?

Would you rather have Lewis or Archer? Lewis was drafted at 96th overall. I'd rather take someone who had a higher ceiling and the ability to start than a trick play smallish RB that can never start.

I would hope the FO realizes (now) they made a mistake in letting Lewis go. I'm not sure how to answer your Lewis vs. Archer question...which Lewis are we getting (2010? 2014?)? I was one who wrote Lewis off as a completely wasted pick after 2 seasons.

It's hard to keep people straight in this thread; I would not have taken Archer at #97 (wanted Ellington or Bryant) but the pronouncements (with absolutely certainty) that Archer will be a complete bust drive me nuts.

 

[Idioteque]

Sure hurt the careers of Franco and Tony Dorsett...who fumbled an average of 11.785 times per 427 touches and 11.486 times per 427 touches respectively.

Projecting "Archer, the Fumbler", he would be at 11.529 fumbles which puts him RIGHT between 2 HOF RBs in fumbles per touch. WOW! Why did those FUMBLERS get drafted?

My guess is that the NFL tracked fumbles inefficiently or just differently back then. No NFL RB has fumbled more than 5 times in a season since 2010. Archer's college fumbling rate would absolutely destroy that mark. Can you find me one scouting report of Archer that doesn't mention his being exceptionally fumble-prone.

 

[Idioteque]

I would hope the FO realizes (now) they made a mistake in letting Lewis go. I'm not sure how to answer your Lewis vs. Archer question...which Lewis are we getting (2010? 2014?)? I was one who wrote Lewis off as a completely wasted pick after 2 seasons.

It's hard to keep people straight in this thread; I would not have taken Archer at #97 (wanted Ellington or Bryant) but the pronouncements (with absolutely certainty) that Archer will be a complete bust drive me nuts.

Then I'm not sure what to tell you. Every shred of common sense screams "bust" except for his 40 time.

 

[SteelerAl]

As for his size. Yes, NFL players pack on weight. But presumably, all or most of them do. If we're going to assume Archer will put on a little weight, then we need to assume Devin Hester and Dexter McCluster did as well, and stop comparing their combine weights.

If we are going to compare size and weight (which has been done ad nauseum in this thread), the relevant comparison is certainly combine weight to combine weight (not Archer's combine weight to a 5th-year NFL player's current weight). So I don't get your point there at all.

 

[antdrewjosh]

Once again since you love to cherry pick things. Ive stated over and over he is not just STRAIGHT LINE SPEED GUY. His quickness and agility are also part of the package. If he was just fast I would agree more with that he will struggle greatly. Once again his speed is not his only asset.

 

[Idioteque]

If we are going to compare size and weight (which has been done ad nauseum in this thread), the relevant comparison is certainly combine weight to combine weight (not Archer's combine weight to a 5th-year NFL player's current weight). So I don't get your point there at all.

What I meant to say was, let's not assume Archer will put on weight while assuming other guys still weigh what they did at the combine.

 

[Idioteque]

Once again since you love to cherry pick things. Ive stated over and over he is not just STRAIGHT LINE SPEED GUY. His quickness and agility are also part of the package. If he was just fast I would agree more with that he will struggle greatly. Once again his speed is not his only asset.

I read it numerous times; I just don't care because it's stupid.