Rudolph will likely crash as soon as the turnover gravy train stops
The Steelers are + 11 on turnovers thanks to a fierce pass rush, playing some very bad teams, and acquired ( not drafted ) DB's who can intercept the ball.
As we know, winning the turnover battle is perhaps the biggest key to victory. The bests team tend to on the plus side of turnovers, the worst on the minus side of turnovers.
When I look at the top turnover teams, they are:
New England +17
Pittsburgh +11
Green Bay +7
Seattle +7
Carolina +6
All of the above teams have a winning record, except for us, and our wins can from Cincy, Miami, a missed FG in the Colts, and the Chargers, who have a losing record.
By contrast, teams who have the fewest turnovers are:
Miami - 13
Atlanta - 11
NY Giants - 10
Cincinnati - 9
Cleveland -8
Combined these five teams have only won six games.
Analysis: When you’re a QB on a team of +11 turnovers, and your kicker is playing lights out, you can beat the very bad teams with losing records, and even a .500 type of team if they make a mistake or two and your team gets say a pick six.
However to defeat .500 or above team in a where the turnovers are close, your QB is going to have to produce. Throwing dink and dunk 0-5 yards type of passing offense just isn't going to cut it aside from kicking field goals. So far this season, 36.4% of Rudolph’s total pass attempts have been throws that never crossed the original line of scrimmage! Rudy has thrown in the 1-5 yards range past the line of scrimmage 22% of the time. Yes—57.5% of his passes thrown were of the dink variety of 5 yards and less. To complicate matters, Rudy’s accuracy past the 6 yard mark is only 43.4% If a team plays short man zone, or even tries bump and run vs our RB, our passing game, what's left of it will be in a world of hurt. When was the last time the Steelers failed to have at least two of the following. A 3,000-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher, and a 1,000-yard receiver? We are on pace for going 0-3 in this area.
For the record, I don’t blame Randy Fichtner one iota. We saw how his offense works with the same players, minus Ben. It worked well. Randy knows if Rudolph has to pass to win, the interceptions are coming thanks to a weak arm by NFL staring QB standards and iffy accuracy to hit moving targets. I anticipate NFL defensive coordinators will figure out Rudy’s passes are either going to be dump-offs to the backs or very short routes to the TE’s, with an occasional floating like 50/50 deep ball to the receivers. The Colts caught on it later in the game. And speaking of that game, their 3rd sting man, a guy Tomlin brought in but did not keep looked better than Rudy did on his best game.
I don’t know when the defensive turnover’s stop, but when it does, I fully expect a crash from Rudolph. We will be hearing some Duck calls. I’m not saying Duck is any better. He would need a few games as a starter to compare.