Has Ben Regressed, and Is It Time To Draft A QB...

[steelhurt]

Some of you on here are crazy to think Ben is regressing or think he's a problem. Ben is the reason this team is consistently in the playoff hunt and talking SB every year. As some have mentioned, other than AB and Bell he had no viable #2 receiver this year. Instead he had inconsistency from an injured receiver and a journeyman receiver. A slot guy who at times looked promising but again inconsistent. A supposed big play threat TE who can't stay on the field and back-up TE in James and he still posted pretty damn good numbers.

Ben is disgusted and I think plain disappointed in how things have developed the last few seasons. He's had to deal with suspensions to two of his big weapons, distractions from his premier receiver, questionable play calling from his HC and OC and now you factor in all the injuries over 13 seasons who can blame him if he wants to check out. I think Ben is questioning whether this team is headed in the right direction, I really do. They better do a few things to convince him otherwise at best I see one more season then we're going to be like most of the other teams struggling to get to mediocrity with a serviceable at best QB. Be careful what you wish for here!

I would sign someone like a Kenny Stills who could immediately add a deep threat for Ben and give AB relief from double teams. Bryant is an unknown at this point and if he comes back with the right attitude then that makes this team even more dangerous. Rogers should and I say should continue to develop in the slot role and Coates is an unknown as well. Who knows what you will get with him. DHB is a journeyman and his best use is on ST. Bring in another weapon and look at Stills.

Draft a TE no later than round two. Most likely Howard long gone so look at the Miami TE who with James would secure that position for years. Green is an unknown here as well so you can't trust that he's stay on the field. Best way to predict future is look at history. I'd cut ties with Green.

Give Ben some guys he can rely on and if it takes F/A and the draft then make it happen.

 

[CoolieMan]

Yes, because, as we found out afterward, he had a double hernia. So I'll cut him - and management - some slack.

He'll be back this season, and an important part of their offense. They obviously didn't realize what they had when they redshirted him most of the year.

They do now.

it is tough for a 7th rounder to get time with the 1st team. Ayers had a high ankle sprain in training camp that had to limit his elusiveness, but he didn't miss any time. That shows heart to stay out there. Hopefully he stays healthy this off season and can make a splash next training camp.

 

[GMC]

I am not saying ben is not a good qb and we know what the landry Jones Steelers look like and it is not pretty. However that does not mean ben is a god and has not regressed. Several games in a row he was missing open guys mostly high. That stuff happens but my biggest knock is him simply not taking what the defense gives. As for a replacement the draft seems weak at qb so I would not waste a higher pick on a qb this year.

Regressed? Given his age and punishment he's sustained over his career, maybe a bit. However, he's still better than all but a few of his peers. The team's still winning because of him, not in spite of.

 

[21STEELERS21]

Considering they lost their #2, #3, #4 receiving targets from 2015 (Miller, Bryant, Wheaton), 2016 wasn't that bad of an offensive year.

 

[Chicoman]

Funny how some people forget the QB carousel that was going on here for 22 years before Big Ben arrived and now some think he's declining in his QB play. The guy is a future HoF'er without question....IMO he certainly seems to be making better decisions with the football than he has previously in his career. Let's enjoy the last few years of Big Ben before he goes off into retirement. Sure it's time to start looking to see if a QB is available so he can learn for a few years under Ben until he's ready just like the Packers did with Aaron Rogers. Ben is not going to be like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning and stick around til he's 40. I see him playing 2 or 3 more years at best. I just hope he can bring us to the promised land one more time! Mettenberger is not the answer for the Steelers at QB and they know this....he doesn't understand the playbook. Steelers are talking about going after Josh McNown from the Clowns in FA. Landry will want too much $$$ and we have FA's in the years ahead if we are going to keep our Steelers as contenders....including Stephon Tuitt, LeVeon Bell, Antionio Brown, Ryan Shazier and several others.....

GO BEN!

 

[deljzc]

I didn't see any regression with Roethlisberger. But this is the first off-season where I am starting to think of a countdown with his career. With his talk of wanting time off and "retirement" to his age (35 next Thursday) and injury history, I think we can really say with 90% certainty that we are in the last three seasons on his career now.

That means a new starting QB for the Steelers in 2020.

I think I'm not alone is saying I don't want that to be Landry Jones. At that point Jones would be entering his EIGHTH season and be 31 years old.

So we have three drafts with likely late draft positions to think what we are going to do.

1. We could do nothing and wait and see if one of these next three seasons Roethlisberger has a very bad injury, is knocked out for extended time (maybe season ending), we go 4-12 or 6-10, get a top-10 pick and use that to select a quarterback (and hope one is available worth taking). After a season-ending injury the writing would be on the wall for Roethlisberger's career and that's that. Problem solved.

2. We could do nothing and Roethlisberger stays healthy, we have great success and after a deep playoff run, Roethlisberger walks into the sunset on his terms. We are stuck with Landry Jones or a mediocre free agent starter for a season or two and we don't really consider the position until then. In all likelihood we are not going to be in position to draft a good prospect after Roethlisberger retires because we are picking between #26-#32 in the draft. So we wait for a bad season with Jones/bad FA and THEN draft a QB in 2021 or 2022.

3. We shotgun approach the problem with late round boom/bust prospects over the next thee drafts. We hope to "hit" on someone like Dak Prescott, Tyrod Taylor, Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins (those are the most recent examples and what to best expect). This seems to be (on average) a 4th round investment, which is what Landry Jones was so the Steelers certainly could be looking to do that again now that Jones is past his rookie contract. If anything you might see it more frequently over the next 3 drafts (like twice). As stated, I think in this draft those prospects are Pat Mahomes (who I really don't like) or Chad Kelly (who I do like but is a super risk). All signs seem to point to Mohomes getting picked earlier than we want to draft a QB (hopefully), but I don't guarantee that after watching his tape (which I thought was pretty bad).

Those are the solutions and options moving forward in all reality.

 

[ark steel]

I didn't see any regression with Roethlisberger. But this is the first off-season where I am starting to think of a countdown with his career. With his talk of wanting time off and "retirement" to his age (35 next Thursday) and injury history, I think we can really say with 90% certainty that we are in the last three seasons on his career now.

That means a new starting QB for the Steelers in 2020.

I think I'm not alone is saying I don't want that to be Landry Jones. At that point Jones would be entering his EIGHTH season and be 31 years old.

So we have three drafts with likely late draft positions to think what we are going to do.

1. We could do nothing and wait and see if one of these next three seasons Roethlisberger has a very bad injury, is knocked out for extended time (maybe season ending), we go 4-12 or 6-10, get a top-10 pick and use that to select a quarterback (and hope one is available worth taking). After a season-ending injury the writing would be on the wall for Roethlisberger's career and that's that. Problem solved.

2. We could do nothing and Roethlisberger stays healthy, we have great success and after a deep playoff run, Roethlisberger walks into the sunset on his terms. We are stuck with Landry Jones or a mediocre free agent starter for a season or two and we don't really consider the position until then. In all likelihood we are not going to be in position to draft a good prospect after Roethlisberger retires because we are picking between #26-#32 in the draft. So we wait for a bad season with Jones/bad FA and THEN draft a QB in 2021 or 2022.

3. We shotgun approach the problem with late round boom/bust prospects over the next thee drafts. We hope to "hit" on someone like Dak Prescott, Tyrod Taylor, Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins (those are the most recent examples and what to best expect). This seems to be (on average) a 4th round investment, which is what Landry Jones was so the Steelers certainly could be looking to do that again now that Jones is past his rookie contract. If anything you might see it more frequently over the next 3 drafts (like twice). As stated, I think in this draft those prospects are Pat Mahomes (who I really don't like) or Chad Kelly (who I do like but is a super risk). All signs seem to point to Mohomes getting picked earlier than we want to draft a QB (hopefully), but I don't guarantee that after watching his tape (which I thought was pretty bad).

Those are the solutions and options moving forward in all reality.

Instead of the draft, is there a good quality back up out there that might be an above average starter? Maybe AJ McCarron? you have to pay more than you do for a drafted prospect but have a little bit of an NFL body of work to look at. I liked the idea of Glennon (from TB?) as a better back up than Landry, but not as a projected replacement for Ben.

 

[Steel Vanguard]

The problem is AJ McCarron is that he's a jerk. He's a better football player than Johnny Manziel, but he has a similar ego maniacal personality. On a team where the defense is expected to rule the locker room, I'm not sure that goes over well. If I was going to steal a project player, it would be someone with huge upside like Cardale Jones. Thing is, he may get the reigns in Buffalo this year.

I think Deljzc is right, shotgun approach to the draft. Take the most talented late round guy 3 years in a row. If none of them pan, draft one high.

 

[ark steel]

The problem is AJ McCarron is that he's a jerk. He's a better football player than Johnny Manziel, but he has a similar ego maniacal personality. On a team where the defense is expected to rule the locker room, I'm not sure that goes over well. If I was going to steal a project player, it would be someone with huge upside like Cardale Jones. Thing is, he may get the reigns in Buffalo this year.

I think Deljzc is right, shotgun approach to the draft. Take the most talented late round guy 3 years in a row. If none of them pan, draft one high.

Honestly, besides McCarron, the only backups whose names I can think of off of the top of my head were Mallet, Garropolo and Glennon. I'm not even sure Glennon was in the league last year. I did read that McCarron was cocky, Wiki mentioned that his answer, at the combine to what his best attribute is, his answer was "Winning".

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/10932201/aj-mccarron-cincinnati-bengals-hurt-pre-draft-reports

 

[ark steel]

took a look at profootball reference to get an idea of the draft positions of QB's who have had some success in the league. Search parameters were to find out how many seasons the QB had an AV greater than or equal to 5. Includes only those drafted in 1995 (just picked a year) or later. This does leave out people who were drafted in the last 5 years, though. In any event, there are 58 QB's who had 5 seasons or more of an AV of 5.

Looks like 39 of them were drafted in the first three rounds. Those not drafted in the first three rounds:

Player	Draft	From	To	Tm	Count
David Garrard\GarrDa00	4-108	2005	2010	JAX	6
Aaron Brooks\BrooAa00	4-131	2000	2005	NOR	6
Rich Gannon\GannRi00	4-98	1997	2002	KAN/OAK	6
Mark Brunell\BrunMa00	5-118	1995	2006	JAX/WAS	10
Jeff Blake\BlakJe00	6-166	1995	2003	CIN/NOR/BAL/ARI	7
Marc Bulger\BulgMa00	6-168	2002	2008	STL	6
Matt Hasselbeck\HassMa00	6-187	2001	2011	SEA/TEN	10
Tom Brady\BradTo00	6-199	2001	2016	NWE	15
Gus Frerotte\FrerGu00	7-197	1995	2008	WAS/DET/DEN/MIA/MIN	7
Ryan Fitzpatrick\FitzRy00	7-250	2010	2016	BUF/TEN/HOU/NYJ	7
Elvis Grbac\GrbaEl00	8-219	1995	2001	SFO/KAN/BAL	5
Trent Green\GreeTr00	8-222	1998	2006	WAS/STL/KAN	8
Brad Johnson\JohnBr00	9-227	1996	2006	MIN/WAS/TAM	9
Jeff Garcia\GarcJe00		1999	2008	SFO/CLE/PHI/TAM	9
Tony Romo\RomoTo00		2006	2014	DAL	9
Kurt Warner*\WarnKu00		1999	2009	STL/NYG/ARI	9
Jon Kitna\KitnJo00		1999	2010	SEA/CIN/DET/DAL	8
Jake Delhomme\DelhJa00		2003	2008	CAR	5
Doug Flutie\FlutDo00	11-285	1998	2003	BUF/SDG	5

<tbody>
</tbody><colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 

[deljzc]

Here is the list since 2000. You have to sort the list manually by AV (just click the top of that column).

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...l&conference_id=any&show=all&order_by=default

There are only 10 worth talking about (20+ AV) out of 127 total picked (that's 7.8%).

Brady, Fitzpatrick, Gerrard, Bulger, Cassell, Orton, Cousins, Taylor, D. Anderson and Dak Prescott.

So even if we shotgun approach the next three drafts and force a round 4 pick every year on a QB, the chances of us finding anyone even remotely good (and I would venture many here wouldn't be happy with half those above) are about 1 in 20.

 

[deljzc]

Just for ***** and giggles, the % of QB's that are drafted in the 1st round since 2000 and get to 20+ AV is 69% (31 out of 45).

 

[Steel Vanguard]

The alternative is drafting high when Ben retires. We're a young and improving team, so barring major injury we'll still be contending in 2020.

That means we're going to have to deal our way up the first round to draft a quality QB. I don't like our chances there because our choices become risking the whole draft to go up and get a guy who could bust, or wait till the end of the round and take a flyer on a second tier QB. Seems like a lose/lose proposition.

 

[deljzc]

I would also argue the true threshold for a successful, winning QB is 50 AV (with 100+ being a great franchise guy). Here's how it stacks up.

Drafted in round 1: 15 + 3 likely (Winston, Wentz and Mariotta) out of 45 = 40%

Drafted round 2 or 3: 4 + 1 likely (Carr) out of 41 = 12.2%

Drafted round 4 or later: 4 + 2 likely (Cousins, Prescott) out of 127 = 4.7%

Undrafted: 1 (Romo) out of ??? = likely less than 1%

 

[Steel Vanguard]

I wish I could find that number for 1st round busts in the last 20 years. It's a huge number. Like 80%.

 

[ark steel]

I would also argue the true threshold for a successful, winning QB is 50 AV (with 100+ being a great franchise guy). Here's how it stacks up.

Drafted in round 1: 15 + 3 likely (Winston, Wentz and Mariotta) out of 45 = 40%

Drafted round 2 or 3: 4 + 1 likely (Carr) out of 41 = 12.2%

Drafted round 4 or later: 4 + 2 likely (Cousins, Prescott) out of 127 = 4.7%

Undrafted: 1 (Romo) out of ??? = likely less than 1%

I wondered what AV one might use to consider someone "good" or "successful".

 

[steelpastor]

.

OK... here is my thought. We target some perennial loser teams and trade our 3rd round pick in 2017 for a 2nd round pick in 2018. Then we take the 2nd round pick in 2018 (during the 2018 draft) and trade it to another loser team for a 1st rounder in 2019. So in 2019... we have two 1st round picks... which is packaged together should get a shot at a good starter.

Other teams have worked the draft this way before.
.

 

[CharlesDavenport]

So just curious, is everyone's assessment that this is such a weak QB class based on personal film study or the talking heads repeating this thought? Just wondering.

Good question. Here is a good story about how the Patriots ended up drafting Brady in round six - http://www.businessinsider.com/patriots-draft-tom-brady-2014-5

That won't happen with us. We like stupid athletic guys.

 

[Steel Vanguard]

Good question. Here is a good story about how the Patriots ended up drafting Brady in round six - http://www.businessinsider.com/patriots-draft-tom-brady-2014-5

That won't happen with us. We like stupid athletic guys.

This article is horseshit. They took a flyer and got lucky. It was no genius move and everyone who knows anything about drafts knows that after round 4 it's not about scouting anymore. You're taking guys who either fit your system, or have the best available upside.

This is just the ****** *** Patriots trying to take credit for more **** they got for free and didn't earn.

**** them, and **** Tom.

 

[Drink IRON City]

This article is horseshit. They took a flyer and got lucky. It was no genius move and everyone who knows anything about drafts knows that after round 4 it's not about scouting anymore. You're taking guys who either fit your system, or have the best available upside.

This is just the ****** *** Patriots trying to take credit for more **** they got for free and didn't earn.

**** them, and **** Tom.

Double YOI on the **** t*mmy b*y. !!!!!!!!!!!





Salute the nation

 

[deljzc]

Just remember Colbert had Tee Martin ahead of Tom Brady on his board....

 

[ianv2012]

Good question. Here is a good story about how the Patriots ended up drafting Brady in round six - http://www.businessinsider.com/patriots-draft-tom-brady-2014-5

That won't happen with us. We like stupid athletic guys.

Well I sure wouldn't call Landry Jones stupid athletic, in fact he isn't very athletic at all, definitely a pocket passer. They took him in the 4th rd as a flyer based on his production at Oklahoma.

In any case as "weak" a QB class as this supposedly is there are three guys that intrigue me and I feel would find their perfect spot in Pittsburgh due to not having to be thrown to the wolves, and would have the time they need to sit behind Ben learning from him while improving their craft at QB (Aaron Rodgers had throwing mechanic, and throwing stance questions out of Cal, just food for thought and I'm not implying any of these would be Aaron Rodgers).

1- Deshone Kizer: Incredibly talented with all the ability you'd want in a QB. The issue he struggles with is consistent mechanics, but when his mechanics were proper he could make any throw with velocity or touch. Time behind Ben provides him the enviroment to become consistent in his mechanics and grow into a consistent QB with all world ability, very high cieling.

2- Patrick Mahomes: Almost exact same issue as Kizer, but probably not as athletic yet he most likely has the stronger arm (deep ball wise). Also forgot to mention that both Mahomes and Kizer have played in shotgun systems and would have to grow in playing under center, but this is yet another reason why Pittsburgh is a great spot for them to take the time to hone their craft.

3- Nathan Peterman: he's the most polished among the three, and has experience in a pro style system. He'd be ready to go sooner as Ben's backup than the other two, but he he has a lower cieling in terms of "talent". I don't knock him for this, but instead think he could develop into a good starting QB, and he can be had around the 3rd or 4th round. No reason why the guy couldn't grow in our culture and system to be a trustworthy QB for years. *I think of Phil Simms with the Giants, was he the greatest QB ever? No, but he was perfect for his team, and they trusted him to lead the offense which I think Peterman has the potential of doing.*

Honorable Mention: I didn't list Watson, but that doesn't mean I am opposed to taking him if he some how fell to our 2nd round pick, the guy is a winner and may have the confidence and drive to be the best out of this class. Attitude and character is important, which is where my ability to assess these young men falls short, but I don't dislike Watson at all, as he is yet another guy who could benefit from being behind Ben.

 

[Steel Vanguard]

Just remember Colbert had Tee Martin ahead of Tom Brady on his board....

Tee was plainly more talented.

And lest we forget that Brady and Kraft colluded with Goodell and the competition committee to rig the rules in his favor. What has happened with Brady is unprecedented in all of sport. We should not be comparing him to anyone.

 

[Coryea]

Just remember Colbert had Tee Martin ahead of Tom Brady on his board....

Along with pretty much every other GM

 

[Steeltime]

Along with pretty much every other GM