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Nothing is a guarantee.
And I do think if they get Denver at home they would be a pretty good favorite. Maybe New England is their cryptonite, but that doesn't mean things can't work out and you get there.
They have a good shot of getting 12 wins and getting home field throughout. I'm not convinced New England is getting to 13+ wins this year missing Brady for 4 games (tbd). And I think Denver takes a bit of a step back.
If the AFC playoffs go through Indianapolis, I think they have a pretty decent shot.
I also think they match up pretty well against Seattle too just because I think Luck's arm strength downfield could beat the Cover-1 they like to play and put pressure on Seattle to cover all parts of the field.
They need to improve their defense. I'm not giving up on Bjorn Werner (he gets another shot like Jarvis Jones). I liked the Josh Chapman pick a few years ago and he's turning into a decent NT prospect. They just need more bodies for Pagano to work with to get that defense at 15th or better.
I actually think the kid Newsome they drafted in the later rounds last year may emerge as their best edge player. He flashed impressive ability in some of the Colts games I watched.
I just do not know if they've done near enough to improve their run defense, which is where the Patriots always seem to take advantage of them.
As for the AFC in general, I think the Broncos are the strong favorites, assuming Peyton's thigh has fully healed. New England is going to take step or two back defensively without Revis. After the Broncos, I think there are a handful of teams, including the Patriots, Steelers, Ravens and Colts, that have a legit shot.
The Jets are my dark horse, based on whether Geno Smith can build on the improvement he showed down the stretch last season. That defense will just be downright stupid.