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Betting line favors Seattle vs Indy for the Super Bowl

deljzc said:
I really don't think the game(s) are fixed in any way.

I think it's very hard to subtlety influence a one-and-done playoff format to try and create what you want from a league perspective. I think the randomness and variety of penalties and odd things over the years is just normal statistical variations.

Of all the sports, the NFL is least effected by "big market" forces. People watch the Super Bowl no matter if Indianapolis, Seattle, Pittsburgh or New York is playing. And the add revenue is "fixed" way before the teams are decided.

I just see no good statistical evidence that the league favors any one team over another.
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Not all of us, the last super bowl I watched had the steelers playing in it, when they are done so am I.
 
The only way we get to the SB if the following happen:

1) Shazier becomes Derrick Brooks.
2) Dupree morphs into Kevin Greene.
3) Golson AND Grant are both real players with one of them channeling Asante Samuel in his prime.
4) Jarvis Jones becomes anyone but Jarvis Jones.
5) Heath turns back the clock 5 years.
6) Coats is the reincarnation of TO.

Those six things happen and we are a lock for the SB.
 
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fogdoctor said:
The only way we get to the SB if the following happen:

1) Shazier becomes Derrick Brooks.
2) Dupree morphs into Kevin Greene.
3) Golson AND Grant are both real players with one of them channeling Asante Samuel in his prime.
4) Jarvis Jones becomes anyone but Jarvis Jones.
5) Heath turns back the clock 5 years.
6) Coats is the reincarnation of TO.

Those six things happen and we are a lock for the SB.
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We only need our D to be average. Ravens recently won a superbowl with the 17th ranked D. NE just won with the 13th ranked D. We get slightly above average and our O can carry us!
 
deljzc said:
"People" doesn't mean just you. And the ratings for Super Bowls are not effected by big market forces nearly as much as series finales like in baseball, basketball and hockey.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/216526/super-bowl-us-tv-viewership/
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I did not say it did mean just me. The phrase people not some people last time I checked I qualified as people and I do know people that do not watch if their team is not playing. I know you like numbers and stats. My take on your post was that folks will watch the game no matter who is playing, my point was not all of us will.
 
Cope said:
We only need our D to be average. Ravens recently won a superbowl with the 17th ranked D. NE just won with the 13th ranked D. We get slightly above average and our O can carry us!
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That would be improving 15 places from last year.
 
I think Dallas wins the NFC this year...they are absolutely loaded and that O-Line is probably the best in the league.

The AFC is kind of a crap-shoot to me...Steelers, Pats, Broncos, Chefs...hell, damn near anybody could win it...
 
GRBman said:
I think Dallas wins the NFC this year...they are absolutely loaded and that O-Line is probably the best in the league.

The AFC is kind of a crap-shoot to me...Steelers, Pats, Broncos, Chefs...hell, damn near anybody could win it...
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I'm thinking the p*ts will NOT win into it. I think there is an unsaid ruling as to not give the p*ts the extra help of officiating, as in the past. t*mmy b*y is going to get hit and no flags of the past. It's what happens when you don't cooperate with the " rog" FlUCK the p*ts



Salute the nation
 
Or, they do all they can to put those lying cheating *** hats in it so they can say see it really did not matter. It might be hard to figure out what is going on. It might be real good if someone could find someone on the defense and the offense to big rigged up with a transmitter that just caused huge amounts of feed back in all the radios on the field rendering them useless. That should eliminate much of the advantages the cheats have.
 
Wingman said:
Or, they do all they can to put those lying cheating *** hats in it so they can say see it really did not matter. It might be hard to figure out what is going on. It might be real good if someone could find someone on the defense and the offense to big rigged up with a transmitter that just caused huge amounts of feed back in all the radios on the field rendering them useless. That should eliminate much of the advantages the cheats have.
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If that "SCRAMBLER" guy was on 8 different teams, playing at che*ts stadium, then I'd see your point. Wouldn't that be awesome, have to go back to all HAND / body signals to get plays in n out, substitutions, ect.. Next thing you know, the p*ts would be accusing everyone else of cheating.......... FlUCK the che*tri*ts**



Salute the nation
 
I'm going to go with the Steelers chances being really really good this year. Indy? Really?
 
fogdoctor said:
The only way we get to the SB if the following happen:

1) Shazier becomes Derrick Brooks.
2) Dupree morphs into Kevin Greene.
3) Golson AND Grant are both real players with one of them channeling Asante Samuel in his prime.
4) Jarvis Jones becomes anyone but Jarvis Jones.
5) Heath turns back the clock 5 years.
6) Coats is the reincarnation of TO.

Those six things happen and we are a lock for the SB.
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And we have no key injures to Ben, Bell, Beachum or Hewyard.
 
Coach said:
The Giants were 6-10 last season. A mess. No way they make it to the super bowl.
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We went from 8-8 to 11-5 while the defense got worse. You don't need to get to the SB right away. All you need to do is get in the playoffs after which all bets are off. The NFC East is the Giants with the Eagles, Cowboys (?), and Redskins, all three of whom can be reliably counted on to **** the bed.
 
fogdoctor said:
The only way we get to the SB if the following happen:

1) Shazier becomes Derrick Brooks.
2) Dupree morphs into Kevin Greene.
3) Golson AND Grant are both real players with one of them channeling Asante Samuel in his prime.
4) Jarvis Jones becomes anyone but Jarvis Jones.
5) Heath turns back the clock 5 years.
6) Coats is the reincarnation of TO.

Those six things happen and we are a lock for the SB.
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I think he can be better than TO...
 
We only need our D to slow the bleed not be a wall. If our offense stays healthy and doesn't take half the damn year to get **** figured out,they could break more records. I just want that 7th Superbowl and i want Ben to win MVP in it. It's off season I'm optimistic...haha.
 
I suspect we have added some pieces this year that will be helpful but we are likely at least a year away from making a visit the the game in feb.
 
Wingman said:
I suspect we have added some pieces this year that will be helpful but we are likely at least a year away from making a visit the the game in feb.
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So you're saying there's a chance?
 
IMO there are too many questions for the Colts to goto a Super Bowl. They have a suspect running game with Frank Gore who is 32 years old now and has a lot of mileage on him for a guy his age. Not to mention Andrew Luck has got to be one of the worst QB's when it comes to protecting the football. He carelessly tosses it up for grabs when the games are on the line and doesn't tuck the ball away when he runs. He needs to mature a little more and be better in his decision making tossing that football around. He tries to force it too much and it ultimately costs the team!
 
Ron Burgundy said:
So you're saying there's a chance?
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Ron, there is always a chance, sometimes they are better than others. I suspect we will have more of an idea after the preseason games conclude and we will see if the team is ready to go on opening day.
 
Indianapolis has done a pretty decent job of exceeding regular season expectations. And no team in the league has had their expectations rise as much since Andrew Luck arrived.

This was a team that (based on Vegas win/loss bets) was predicted to win only 6.6 games in 2012, 8.6 games in 2013 and now up to 10.1 games in 2014. Each year they got 11 wins and have gone one round deeper in the playoffs.

Andrew Luck's DQR has also dramatically increased each season: 73.5 to 86.8 to 95.7

So a lot of the trends seem to indicate Indianapolis is ready to make the next step. They also play in a relatively weak division so getting to 11-12 wins seems almost assured unless injuries derail their season.

That's the formula for success, right? Continue to improve. Keep dominating your division. Get further in the playoffs and gain experience in big moments.
 
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Chicoman said:
IMO there are too many questions for the Colts to goto a Super Bowl. They have a suspect running game with Frank Gore who is 32 years old now and has a lot of mileage on him for a guy his age. Not to mention Andrew Luck has got to be one of the worst QB's when it comes to protecting the football. He carelessly tosses it up for grabs when the games are on the line and doesn't tuck the ball away when he runs. He needs to mature a little more and be better in his decision making tossing that football around. He tries to force it too much and it ultimately costs the team!
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Luck does not exactly have the luxury to play it safe with the running game and defense he plays with. He has to take some chances for the Colts to win games.
 
deljzc said:
Indianapolis has done a pretty decent job of exceeding regular season expectations. And no team in the league has had their expectations rise as much since Andrew Luck arrived.

This was a team that (based on Vegas win/loss bets) was predicted to win only 6.6 games in 2012, 8.6 games in 2013 and now up to 10.1 games in 2014. Each year they got 11 wins and have gone one round deeper in the playoffs each year.

Andrew Luck's DQR has also dramatically increased each season: 73.5 to 86.8 to 95.7

So a lot of the trends seem to indicate Indianapolis is ready to make the next step. They also play in a relatively weak division so getting to 11-12 wins seems almost assured unless injuries derail their season.

That's the formula for success, right? Continue to improve. Keep dominating your division. Get further in the playoffs and gain experience in big moments.
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I just do not see the Colts reaching the Super Bowl with that defense. I know they have advanced a step further in each of Luck's three seasons, but they were totally obliterated by the Patriots and likely do not make it past the Broncos with a healthy Peyton.
 
Chicoman said:
IMO there are too many questions for the Colts to goto a Super Bowl. They have a suspect running game with Frank Gore who is 32 years old now and has a lot of mileage on him for a guy his age. Not to mention Andrew Luck has got to be one of the worst QB's when it comes to protecting the football. He carelessly tosses it up for grabs when the games are on the line and doesn't tuck the ball away when he runs. He needs to mature a little more and be better in his decision making tossing that football around. He tries to force it too much and it ultimately costs the team!
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You do realize in 2013 he had only 11 turnovers in 646 drop backs, right? Last year he had 24 turnovers, but no player in the league came close to his 75 20+ yard plays or 45 total touchdowns.

Not sure I'm ready to call Andrew Luck "turnover prone" yet.
 
Punxsutawney said:
I just do not see the Colts reaching the Super Bowl with that defense. I know they have advanced a step further in each of Luck's three seasons, but they were totally obliterated by the Patriots and likely do not make it past the Broncos with a healthy Peyton.
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Nothing is a guarantee.

And I do think if they get Denver at home they would be a pretty good favorite. Maybe New England is their cryptonite, but that doesn't mean things can't work out and you get there.

They have a good shot of getting 12 wins and getting home field throughout. I'm not convinced New England is getting to 13+ wins this year missing Brady for 4 games (tbd). And I think Denver takes a bit of a step back.

If the AFC playoffs go through Indianapolis, I think they have a pretty decent shot.

I also think they match up pretty well against Seattle too just because I think Luck's arm strength downfield could beat the Cover-1 they like to play and put pressure on Seattle to cover all parts of the field.

They need to improve their defense. I'm not giving up on Bjorn Werner (he gets another shot like Jarvis Jones). I liked the Josh Chapman pick a few years ago and he's turning into a decent NT prospect. They just need more bodies for Pagano to work with to get that defense at 15th or better.
 
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