Antonio Brown to holdout?

[deljzc]

I see the issue.

$6 million, $8.25 million, $8.71 million = $23 million left on his 3-years.

The fact we have restructured his contract twice puts us in a big bind trying to renegotiate a new contract. We have almost $10 million of un-allocated salary payments that we've paid Brown but have not yet counted on our salary cap accounting yet.

So we're not just looking at an increase in salary, but having to ADD $10 million to the cap too over the next three seasons.

Any increase into top-WR salaries for Brown means we're looking at VERY BIG cap hits.

The only thing I can see doing is rip up the current contract completely and give him a new 5-year or 6-year deal.

Let's say something like this:

6-year, $71 million?

2015: $1 million salary, $15 million SB
2016: $1 million salary, $10 million SB
2017: $9 million salary
2018: $11 million salary
2019: $12 million salary
2020: $12 million salary

Cap hits:

2015: $7.8 million
2016: $10.3 million
2017: $16.6 million
2018: $16.5 million
2019: $17.5 million
2020: $14.5 million

That pushes a lot of the money into late this decade, just like Roethlisberger.

 

[SteelBuckeye]

I see the issue.

$6 million, $8.25 million, $8.71 million = $23 million left on his 3-years.

The fact we have restructured his contract twice puts us in a big bind trying to renegotiate a new contract. We have almost $10 million of un-allocated salary payments that we've paid Brown but have not yet counted on our salary cap accounting yet.

So we're not just looking at an increase in salary, but having to ADD $10 million to the cap too over the next three seasons.

Any increase into top-WR salaries for Brown means we're looking at VERY BIG cap hits.

The only thing I can see doing is rip up the current contract completely and give him a new 5-year or 6-year deal.

Let's say something like this:

6-year, $71 million?

2015: $1 million salary, $15 million SB
2016: $1 million salary, $10 million SB
2017: $9 million salary
2018: $11 million salary
2019: $12 million salary
2020: $12 million salary

Cap hits:

2015: $7.8 million
2016: $10.3 million
2017: $16.6 million
2018: $16.5 million
2019: $17.5 million
2020: $14.5 million

That pushes a lot of the money into late this decade, just like Roethlisberger.

Del, do those numbers include the signing bonus money from his last contract? How does that work? Would it be one big hit or are they able to include it as part of a new signing bonus and spread it out?

 

[FSF]

I totally understand what AB is trying to do BUT the reality is that he has overperformed in the absence of a reliable #1 or #2 target the past 2 years.

In 2012, he was behind Heath in yards (816 to 787) and Wallace in targets (119-106) and yards (836-787) with Sanders and Cotch as #3 and #4s

In 2013 he broke out with 1499 rec.yds. while the #2 (Sanders) and #3 (Cotch) only started in 16 games combined yet collected 1342 yards. AB had 110 receptions while the other 2 had 113.

In 2014 he continued to be a primary target and had a career high of 181 targets followed by Heath's 91. of course he had a career high in production as his #2 (Wheaton) and #3 (Bryant) had 134 targets between them.

With the prospect of Bryant now commanding the #2 spot, there is NO WAY AB sees 181 targets ever again and thusly his production will decline with it. This IS his last opportunity to ask for a commensurate contract BEFORE this happens.

AB will IMO, never again have the number of targets he got last year...AND HE KNOWS IT. He will likely go back to 2011 stats (120+ targets) when we had a legit #1 and #2 with he and Wallace and Cotch/Sanders making up the other 70 or so targets.

If I am the Steelers, I let him do his thing this year and see where he fairs in the NFL higharchy in Yds and TDs. He's going to lose some to Bryant and maybe Wallace or a draft pick. He won't be in the same position next year to demand top 5 money because he'd be lucky to be in the top 10-15, IMO.

AB has taken advantage of a lack of known talent at the WR position as well as Heath's recovery from ACL injury which inflated his targets. Now he won't have that advantage as Heath is healthy again and Bryant looks to get alot more targets as a #2.

His agent's know this too. Thus the move now to 'try' to squeeze some contract value out of his past production while being the 'lone ranger' at #1 on this team.

Very astute, Karma to you sir. By the end of this deal, Brown will likely be catching about 80 balls a year, which in this pass happy league, is replaceable and not distinguishable. He most certainly won't come near his record breaking production of last year with Bryant in year 2 and Wheaton also becoming more of a threat.

 

[swal75]

I see the issue.

$6 million, $8.25 million, $8.71 million = $23 million left on his 3-years.

The fact we have restructured his contract twice puts us in a big bind trying to renegotiate a new contract. We have almost $10 million of un-allocated salary payments that we've paid Brown but have not yet counted on our salary cap accounting yet.

So we're not just looking at an increase in salary, but having to ADD $10 million to the cap too over the next three seasons.

Any increase into top-WR salaries for Brown means we're looking at VERY BIG cap hits.

The only thing I can see doing is rip up the current contract completely and give him a new 5-year or 6-year deal.

Let's say something like this:

6-year, $71 million?

2015: $1 million salary, $15 million SB
2016: $1 million salary, $10 million SB
2017: $9 million salary
2018: $11 million salary
2019: $12 million salary
2020: $12 million salary

Cap hits:

2015: $7.8 million
2016: $10.3 million
2017: $16.6 million
2018: $16.5 million
2019: $17.5 million
2020: $14.5 million

That pushes a lot of the money into late this decade, just like Roethlisberger.

I think about this pretty much the same way you do, except that I would subtract 3M from your figures to account for the original proration due in 15/16(before the restructuring). And I'd put the maximum forfeiture language in by law if he holds out at any point.

 

[thesteelcity]

Trading him would be a mistake. Ben and Brown are special together. Hope that there is a compromise that makes both sides happy. Just so he is a Training Camp, I don't mind he is not there this week. Let it play out before we have him in a different uni next year.

 

[slashsteel]

I am not too concerned with this. I don't think Brown will take it to extremes................

 

[FSF]

BTW, Brown led the NFL in receptions last year LARGELY because he was a close #2 in targets. Demarious Thomas had 2 more than AB.

Why did Emanuel Sanders have a career year? His targets nearly doubled w Denver at 141 for the year!

Dead on accurate: In another thread I referred to how Ward had the 3rd most receptions in the NFL from 2001-2004 (when he signed his deal to when he held out): 381
Harrison had 432 receptions -- 51 more on 81 more times thrown to
Holt had 383 receptions - 2 more on 42 more times thrown to

 

[deljzc]

Del, do those numbers include the signing bonus money from his last contract? How does that work? Would it be one big hit or are they able to include it as part of a new signing bonus and spread it out?

I THINK it can stay where it's at (spread out over the next 3 seasons). I'm not entirely sure because it's pretty rare to rip up contracts with 3-years left and sign a new one.

The only change if you CAN'T do this is $1.700 million gets shifted from 2017 to 2016.

 

[Litos]

Del the problem is that I don't think he would want a 10 millons a year for 6 years, it will be the same problem again in a couple of years.

 

[SteelBuckeye]

Del the problem is that I don't think he would want a 10 millons a year for 6 years, it will be the same problem again in a couple of years.

Which may be why the Steelers are looking at WRs rated as first round prospects in this year's draft. As someone noted above, it kind of makes sense.

 

[steelhurt]

I totally understand what AB is trying to do BUT the reality is that he has overperformed in the absence of a reliable #1 or #2 target the past 2 years.

In 2012, he was behind Heath in yards (816 to 787) and Wallace in targets (119-106) and yards (836-787) with Sanders and Cotch as #3 and #4s

In 2013 he broke out with 1499 rec.yds. while the #2 (Sanders) and #3 (Cotch) only started in 16 games combined yet collected 1342 yards. AB had 110 receptions while the other 2 had 113.

In 2014 he continued to be a primary target and had a career high of 181 targets followed by Heath's 91. of course he had a career high in production as his #2 (Wheaton) and #3 (Bryant) had 134 targets between them.

With the prospect of Bryant now commanding the #2 spot, there is NO WAY AB sees 181 targets ever again and thusly his production will decline with it. This IS his last opportunity to ask for a commensurate contract BEFORE this happens.

AB will IMO, never again have the number of targets he got last year...AND HE KNOWS IT. He will likely go back to 2011 stats (120+ targets) when we had a legit #1 and #2 with he and Wallace and Cotch/Sanders making up the other 70 or so targets.

If I am the Steelers, I let him do his thing this year and see where he fairs in the NFL higharchy in Yds and TDs. He's going to lose some to Bryant and maybe Wallace or a draft pick. He won't be in the same position next year to demand top 5 money because he'd be lucky to be in the top 10-15, IMO.

AB has taken advantage of a lack of known talent at the WR position as well as Heath's recovery from ACL injury which inflated his targets. Now he won't have that advantage as Heath is healthy again and Bryant looks to get alot more targets as a #2.

His agent's know this too. Thus the move now to 'try' to squeeze some contract value out of his past production while being the 'lone ranger' at #1 on this team.

This has been my thinking all along. Its about the number of opportunities or targets that's he's been afforded do to the lack of experience from the other receivers on this team. That will all change this year as you've mentioned and his numbers will go down with the emergence of Wheaton and especially Bryant. I agree with your post but I would not re-negotiate his contract at this point because it sends out a terrible message to the rest of the team. Also, see how the three of them perform this year and if Bryant and Wheaton's production goes significantly upward, I seriously look for a trading partner next year in the off season. With two years left on his contract at that time and you should be able to find a team that will deal a couple premium picks for him. That way you can pay Wheaton, Bryant and don't forget Bell.

 

[BLITZ]

He signed a contract. he should honor it. If he doesn't he should be forced to pay back his signing bonus. even in my line of work I would have to. I signed a 7 year contract. if I leave before that 7 years my yearly bonus is forfeited back to the company. I get that a lot of contracts are not met by the owners, but I think a lot of these long term contracts are signed with the knowledge that they are gong to be shorter than signed.

 

[FSF]

Del the problem is that I don't think he would want a 10 millons a year for 6 years, it will be the same problem again in a couple of years.

Another guy who had that attitude problem was Alan Faneca.

When he signed his big deal, it was equivalent to the best paid OL in the league. By 2007, what a surprise....salaries increased so his was no longer at the top and he was angry about it. Its not like the Steelers didn't give him market value when he was signing the deal, so I never got why he was so pissed off. He still had game left, but like Porter, he didn't have enough years left to justify paying him huge money for the half life of football he had left.

And the irony of it is that he signed the biggest contract for an OL in NFL history in 2008 ($40 million $21 guaranteed, over 5 years) -- a record that lasted a month or two. And did he see all 5 years? Heck no - he was cut after only 2, although he was a Pro Bowler in 2008 and 2009, like many OL the last one was more on reputation than on merit -- he was cut following that "Pro Bowl" season. If not for the ego of it, he probably could have signed a deal for less money but would have earned close to the same and gotten another Super Ring (maybe 2) out of it.....

So ultimately he signed a bigger initial contract, with NY taxes wonder how much he really netted more.....and lost out on winning Super Bowls while the Jets got stuck with a cap hit.

 

[TDX27]

Personal attacks against someone for posting his opinion are unnecessary and illogical. If you disagree with someone's post/opinion, I'm sure you could do so in a manner more befitting someone of your obvious intelligence. (I am not being sarcastic. I've seen many examples of your posts that show you to be a better person than this).

That said, he signed the ONLY contract available to him at that time. Was it a GREAT contract? Probably for the AB that was a known commodity at that time. Is it still a GREAT contract? Probably not. I have no problem with him missing voluntary workouts as a way to express his desire for a redone contract. If it extends to mandatory workouts and/or training camp, then he will have caused a distraction worthy of the ire he seems to be getting from some quarters.

Do I believe that he eventually gets more money? I think it's possible. He won't get $16M, or even $12M, but maybe they work out something to put him in the top 10 of WR salaries. Which isn't that far off from where he's at now. I don't think it will be a new contract, but rather an extension.

Now, if he's asking for too much money ... all bets are off as to what they can/will do with him.

I think you missed where he attacked me first. Go back and read.

 

[deljzc]

Del the problem is that I don't think he would want a 10 millons a year for 6 years, it will be the same problem again in a couple of years.

Well... it's a raise over the next 3 season from what he has coming ($23 million) up to $36 million. And it increases his 2015 take-home pay from $6 million to $16 million.

When 2018 comes around maybe he'll feel $11 and $12 million salaries is underpaid again.

Those are still pretty significant increases from a team that doesn't HAVE to do anything.

I'm not even saying I would do it. I would play hardball and see exactly how far he wants to take this first. But this type of deal would be in the back of my mind as a possible resolution.

 

[6Rings]

This will not end good for him. The Steelers are NOT gonna let him run ****. He will either give up and report, be traded, or the Steelers will let him sit out and rott ( They will trade him before they pay a player to sit at home). May need to get the Dolphins or the Eagles on the phone. The time is right to bend Chip Kelly over..

 

[Troglodyte]

Hold out? But Antonio, what about your stupid 5 catches and 50 yards streak?

 

[south dakota STEEL]

Again with this false logic.

What happens if Brown tore an achilles and never panned out? Would the Steeler's or any NFL team 'honor' his contract? Would they wait to cut him until there was only 1 year left? No- they would cut his *** with the quickness and not pay him. Simple as that.

Brown is a hard worker who has out played his contract. Explain to me how that makes you a Diva? Pay him more, but tack on more years.

So he is not smart enough to have insurance? He works, he should have insurance. He's self-employed, basically. He may not have the millions he has now, if injured, but it will be more than enough to support him and family. Until he works as a talking head for a sports show

 

[AggieSteel]

Just give him what he wants

 

[Troglodyte]

What happens if Brown tore an achilles and never panned out? Would the Steeler's or any NFL team 'honor' his contract? Would they wait to cut him until there was only 1 year left? No- they would cut his *** with the quickness and not pay him. Simple as that.

But he'd be able to keep all of his signing bonus. Had the Steelers known he would want a better deal after 3 years, they would have given him considerably less up-front.

 

[SteelBuckeye]

But he'd be able to keep all of his signing bonus. Had the Steelers known he would want a better deal after 3 years, they would have given him considerably less up-front.

They only gave him $8.5M up front ...

 

[south dakota STEEL]

He was overpaid when he signed the contract now he is underpaid, the contract had risks for both parties and now Brown wants it both ways, **** him, play or holdout I couldn'tt care less.

Nice! I agree!

Love having him, but....

 

[Wingman]

I believe the issue here is the tail wagging the dog.

 

[steelerscotty]

I hope this gets worked out. Brown will probably never have as much trade value as he does right now so, if we are going to part ways with him, id rather do it now rather than after a long summer hold out.

 

[Gareth]

It would be nice if someone confirmed that this was more than just rumors based on him not going to voluntary OTA's.

If it is, Colbert or Rooney need to quietly contact him and tell him there will be no negotiations this year. If he gets his *** to camp on time and continues to work hard and step up and lead they will sit down next off season and try to approach terms for a lengthy extension.

He is a great player.

He has 3 years left under contract.

Is he outplaying his contract?

Sure.

That's how these things go when you take a risk on a player.

They either develop and you have a couple bargain years until their big pay day....or they don;t and you over pay until they are cut.

Many more fall into the cut than the bargain category.

I'm really not sure what leverage he thinks he has.

He can play, or sit, be fined, and lose a lot of negotiating leverage for his future.