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Right now, it looks like 11 wins would pretty much guarantee a spot in the playoffs. In fact, if we win 11, with the loss being to either Atlanta, or NO, we would likely win the division, as that would entail sweeping Cincy, which would leave them unable to reach 11 wins. Baltimore or Cleveland would have to win out, as we would have the tiebreaker over both (division record for Baltimore, and conference record for Cleveland).
It's a bit too early to really do the wild card, but the competition is the division teams, along with KC, Miami, and SD, with Houston and Buffalo as long shots that need help. We can take care of KC ourselves, but it would really help if Denver can beat Miami this Sunday, as after this weekend Miami has by far the softest remaining schedule of the 4 loss teams. San Diego isn't going to survive, with Baltimore, New England, San Francisco, Denver, and KC to close out the season. If Houston can beat Cincy this weekend, they will have a chance with a fairly soft schedule down the stretch. Cincy needs this game badly, as they have us twice, plus host Denver, and play Cleveland on the road. Cleveland has 4 of 6 on the road. The Rats really need to win at NO this Monday, as they have road games at Miami, and Houston, and have to host SD, and Cleveland, with only a home game vs Jax that can be considered a breather. With Cleveland, Denver, NE, and Green Bay left, Buffalo has no chance. Looking at this realistically, if we don't win the division, Miami, KC, and either Baltimore, or Cincy will be the competition for a wild card at 10 wins. If these teams stumble to the point where 9 wins is the cutoff, then Houston and Cleveland may enter the picture. 11 wins locks up a spot, either division, or wild card.
It's a bit too early to really do the wild card, but the competition is the division teams, along with KC, Miami, and SD, with Houston and Buffalo as long shots that need help. We can take care of KC ourselves, but it would really help if Denver can beat Miami this Sunday, as after this weekend Miami has by far the softest remaining schedule of the 4 loss teams. San Diego isn't going to survive, with Baltimore, New England, San Francisco, Denver, and KC to close out the season. If Houston can beat Cincy this weekend, they will have a chance with a fairly soft schedule down the stretch. Cincy needs this game badly, as they have us twice, plus host Denver, and play Cleveland on the road. Cleveland has 4 of 6 on the road. The Rats really need to win at NO this Monday, as they have road games at Miami, and Houston, and have to host SD, and Cleveland, with only a home game vs Jax that can be considered a breather. With Cleveland, Denver, NE, and Green Bay left, Buffalo has no chance. Looking at this realistically, if we don't win the division, Miami, KC, and either Baltimore, or Cincy will be the competition for a wild card at 10 wins. If these teams stumble to the point where 9 wins is the cutoff, then Houston and Cleveland may enter the picture. 11 wins locks up a spot, either division, or wild card.