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Salary cap expected to be 180 instead of 175 per Mark Kaboly,

Coryea

Coryea

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We rolled over about 5 million in cap and save 5.2 million with Vance retiring. We've gained 15 million in cap space without having to do anything. Pouncey or DeCastro are likely gone, as is one of Haden or Nelson, so whichever two are out roughly saves another 12-15 million in cap space.
 
Not sure how Kaboly knows what the cap number is going to be. It doesn't get announced until after the season has ended between league years. At best he is guessing as is everyone else until it is formally announced.
 
Hines57 said:
Not sure how Kaboly knows what the cap number is going to be. It doesn't get announced until after the season has ended between league years. At best he is guessing as is everyone else until it is formally announced.
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He doesn't know, it's just speculations right now. I read a column from everybody's favorite person Mike Florio from Dec. that said that the Cap could be 195m. the point is nobody knows, the NFLPA will be involved with this and the season isn't even over yet. if I was to guess what it would be. between 185 and 195. they will most likely meet in the middle at 190m.
 
Yeah ... They should all hold off on trying to guess what the cap will be. Especially since the league is working feverishly to get that money in the bank from a new TV deal; which would change all the math.
 
SteelBuckeye said:
Yeah ... They should all hold off on trying to guess what the cap will be. Especially since the league is working feverishly to get that money in the bank from a new TV deal; which would change all the math.
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From what I've heard just listening to the NFL guys, it doesn't sound like the TV money is going to hit the cap until after this coming season.
 
vance only official retirment i sense MP is going to wait on ben, I really think MP doesnt want to go out like losing that type of game where he screwed up the momentum.
 
F83 said:
vance only official retirment i sense MP is going to wait on ben, I really think MP doesnt want to go out like losing that type of game where he screwed up the momentum.
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Never make an important decision when you’re upset


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Coryea said:
From what I've heard just listening to the NFL guys, it doesn't sound like the TV money is going to hit the cap until after this coming season.
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I've heard a few talking heads mention an "advance" against future caps that come after the TV deal for this year. Stupid move on the NFLPA's side if so. All advances end up costing you in the long run.
 
SteelBuckeye said:
I've heard a few talking heads mention an "advance" against future caps that come after the TV deal for this year. Stupid move on the NFLPA's side if so. All advances end up costing you in the long run.
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Yeah they are deciding whether to hit the cap dip now or slowly over time
 
so here is the basic breakdown

Pre covid... the cap was expected to be slightly north of 200 million dollars.
Last season it was 198 million

The NFL's marketing structure is heavily based on TV money. Attendance, merchandising, and concessions makes up well under 20% of the cap space. Pre season they calculated a cap number of 175 million based on a lowball calculation minus attendance. This number put the steelers, who hover near the cap ad expect increases and extentions to cover for them, about 21 million over the cap

there were things naysayers didnt realize though...

a.) unspent cap money rolls over
b.) the cap number was a guesstimate, not a hard number
c.) once the NFLPA actually runs the numbers they were going to flip out...

look up my earlier breakdowns of the cap money... an outrageously high percentage of the cap space is tied up in 5 teams... they dont have the roster space to utilize all of that, so the vast majority of UFAs will have to either get the few premium contracts that will be available or basically work for league minimum.

I highly doubt there wont be some plant for teams to borrow against future cap space this year... its not really feasible even at 180 mill to do this... it has to be in the 190 range to work... if that means it stays stagnent for a couple years so be it...
 
SteelBuckeye said:
I've heard a few talking heads mention an "advance" against future caps that come after the TV deal for this year. Stupid move on the NFLPA's side if so. All advances end up costing you in the long run.
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For the NFLPA, they don't want a bunch of highly paid Vets getting salary purged and then not able to find work without taking significant salary cut. With the new TV deal, the long term loss to the players may well be minimized if the TV deal add significant revenue.
 
madinsomniac said:
Those numbers are misleading... that is assuming that the cap drops to the 175mil level the NFL spoke about previous to the season. They are reworking TV deals so that may or may not be final, and there is talk of spreading the cap hit over multiple years... so if the cap drops to 175 then yes they are there, however over 5 million dollars rolls over from this year, so the number drops to 15 million... if they extend ben a couple years out, they can reduce his cap hit by that amount in and of itself... several other reworks and a few cuts and they will have plenty of money to sign a roster...


lets look at it this way... every team will lose 23 million dollars of cap space next year, unless they ultimately spread that hit over four or five years... to put that into perspective, this year 27 of 32 teams would have had to cut players this season to get under that number... 23 of them would have had to trim OVER 10 million from the cap

or how about this... the cap is calculated using the top 51 up until the season, then the active 53 afterwards... here is the issues the nfl has with next year if they don't adjust things

1 just to get to 53 man rosters, there are 1696 roster spots that must be filled for the 32 teams... as of today there are 1192 under contract for next season, meaning 504 players must be signed by the 32 teams next year.... cap space right now sits at 448 million dollars though its not as bad as that sounds.... after cap rollovers its projected to be around 791 million dollars... that averages out to a million and a half per free agent, and that sounds doable... but here is the hitch....

the top 5 cap space teams have $463,118,959 of that cap space... for 66 spots... that 58% of the cap space for 13% of the roster space
That leaves 328,193,748 for 438 players on 27 teams... basically teams will cap adjust a ton, but that's going to be just to fill out a roster.. large long term contracts are going to be few and far between.... the Pats, Colts and Redskins will be able to hit UFA well, but the top two teams will be the Jets and Jags, and frankly those are going to be hard sells to the best talent after recent fiascos with their front office moves...

so yeah face value the cap situation sounds scary... but it isn't really that bad comparatively... the saints, on the other hand are ******... almost 100 million in the hole so much of their top talent will be moving on...
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I wrote this months ago... the numbers tweak slightly but it still is the same issue... a lot of the teams that have big cap space aren’t teams that are going to spend to the cap... and they have limited spots... free agents aren’t going to want to all take significant pay cuts to play... people talk cap space but they don’t realize that these teams all have significant roster spots to fill... once you put weighted league minimum in place tgere isn’t a lot of money to go around... basically you are going to have a bunch of players running to the pats...
 
SteelBuckeye said:
Yeah ... They should all hold off on trying to guess what the cap will be. Especially since the league is working feverishly to get that money in the bank from a new TV deal; which would change all the math.
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Plus they are still playing and can't determine cap till season is over or near over in order for all teams to have same fair advantage to comply.
It's speculation on whoever puts out a number until its' decided by the NFL and announced.




Salute the nation
 
If the cap ends up being $185M There will be a ton of high quality FAs that will end up signing contracts below their value, if they want to play.
 
Cope said:
If the cap ends up being $185M There will be a ton of high quality FAs that will end up signing contracts below their value, if they want to play.
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Steelerfan81 said:
The cap could possibly go up as high as 188m.
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I'm speculating end February / first part March is when we might get official final cap number. Do either of you have a better time frame ? I haven't heard anything as when the adjusted "cap" will come out .



Salute the nation
 
Drink IRON City said:
I'm speculating end February / first part March is when we might get official final cap number. Do either of you have a better time frame ? I haven't heard anything as when the adjusted "cap" will come out .



Salute the nation
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It has to come out before FA starts which begins Mar 17 this year. In 20, they waited till the last minute to announce because covid. I would expect a little more lead time this year so I would guess your time frame is spot on unless delayed by some new negotiation between NFL and NFLPA meant to ease some of the pain.

BTW - if it comes in at 185, Steelers roll 5M over and put us at 190. Projected status for us is 203M less 5.2M for the Vance retirement so 198ish. That would mean we would only have about 8M more to break even. After that, it is money to fill open spots in draft and/or FA.
 
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madinsomniac said:
They dont have the roster space to utilize all of that, so the vast majority of UFAs will have to either get the few premium contracts that will be available or basically work for league minimum.

.
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I was thinking exactly that a couple of weeks ago. There could be a lot of FA bargains out there. Terrible year to be a FA. Also the cap size could depend on how much player movement the owners decide they want in the off season. The lower the cap, the more moves that will have to be made to achieve it. It seems to me most owners are a pretty conservative bunch and will want stability. Let's face it - $10 million is a drop in the bucket what these franchises are worth in the long run. Especially after saving the majority of revenue for what could have been a disastrous season.
 
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Hoot said:
It has to come out before FA starts which begins Mar 17 this year. In 20, they waited till the last minute to announce because covid. I would expect a little more lead time this year so I would guess your time frame is spot on unless delayed by some new negotiation between NFL and NFLPA meant to ease some of the pain.

BTW - if it comes in at 185, Steelers roll 5M over and put us at 190. Projected status for us is 203M less 5.2M for the Vance retirement so 198ish. That would mean we would only have about 8M more to break even. After that, it is money to fill open spots in draft and/or FA.
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I have seen them work more. I think they will maneuver and be fine. Who gets lost in the shuffle. We'll see.

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slashsteel said:
I have seen them work more. I think they will maneuver and be fine. Who gets lost in the shuffle. We'll see.

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IIRC correctly, a restructure of Cam would be another 7ish Mil and if MP does retire, that is another 8. Don't think we will see many moves though until the coaching staff is settled and the team knows the actual cap number. I am hoping they at least keep it flat from this year and spread any losses into future years (which are hopefully partially offset by a new TV deal)
 
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-free-agency-top-100-free-agents

Here is good ol PFF’s top 100 free agents...

Yeah they are a tad delusional...
Hint, they rank Dupree tge 55th best free agent and suggest he will sign a one year prove it deal with the colts for ten million... if that were to happen he should just resign here, where he knows he can stat up for next season...


The thing remains that for tgese guys to get the money numbers thrown around either the league will have to get that number north of 180 or a lot of creative cap maneuvering will need done handicapping cap space for the next few seasons for everyone...

I think a lot of guys are going to take bargin one year deals to push their ufa back into a more reasonable market...
 
madinsomniac said:
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-free-agency-top-100-free-agents

Here is good ol PFF’s top 100 free agents...

Yeah they are a tad delusional...
Hint, they rank Dupree tge 55th best free agent and suggest he will sign a one year prove it deal with the colts for ten million... if that were to happen he should just resign here, where he knows he can stat up for next season...


The thing remains that for tgese guys to get the money numbers thrown around either the league will have to get that number north of 180 or a lot of creative cap maneuvering will need done handicapping cap space for the next few seasons for everyone...

I think a lot of guys are going to take bargin one year deals to push their ufa back into a more reasonable market...
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I’m on the boat that I would love to see Dupree reign with us. The combo of him and Watt is dangerous. Losing him last year was a huge loss for the team and I think it showed in how the defense ended the season.
 
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