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I agree, largely, with your post, except for the last part. I’m January, we were in a very similar situation, and Tomlin elected to go for the onside kick. To nobody’s surprise, it was unsuccessful, as onside kicks rarely are. Not sticking up for him, but this is a perfect example of “when it works/doesn’t work, the coach is a ...........”
The chance at successfully recovering an onside kick is low. The chance at this defense making a stop is even lower.