As soon as it was first reported that the Pittsburgh Steelers “expect” to sign quarterback Ryan Tannehill in free agency the following month, I wanted to look at his numbers both with and without Arthur Smith, analyze his play’s recent decline, and see if Kenny Pickett could achieve a similar turnaround if Smith called plays.
Before joining the Titans, Tannehill was a mediocre quarterback for the Miami Dolphins. However, after one season in Smith’s playbook, he became a Pro Bowl player and contributed two seasons of excellent play for the Titans. In his first season there, he assisted in leading the Titans all the way to the AFC Championship Game. Here are some of his most important passing stats from the previous few seasons, broken down by year:
QB Tannehill Ryan
Season Yards TD Int Completion Percentage FYA/A 20181,979 17, 9 64, 2 5.29 2019, 2,742 22, 6 70, 3 8.52 2020, 3,819 33, 7 65, 5 7.9 20213,734 ~ 21 ~ 14 ~ 67.2 ~ 5.53 ~ 20221,616 4,7,64.8, 4.39, 2,536 13, 65.2, 6.39, 2023
Considering that he only started 10 games in 2019, the seasons of 2019 and 2020 were by far the finest two of his career in terms of score production and adjusted net yards per passing attempt. He worked for Smith for just those two seasons. Tannehill has been experiencing a decline in his numbers ever since Smith left for Atlanta. He’s getting close to the conclusion of his career, so part of that is age. Prior to the 2022 season, he also lost his top target, wide receiver A.J. Brown, in a trade. But as a passer, there’s no doubting that Smith got the best out of him. In fact, during his first season under Smith, he was named the AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
Tannehill’s ANY/A sharply declined, reaching an extremely unfavorable 4.29 in 2023, indicating that his days as a full-time starter are probably finished. However, signing him has advantages beyond his performance. Since being drafted, Pickett will be learning a new scheme for the first time. Tannehill, an experienced player who has succeeded in Smith’s offense, might greatly simplify the transition for Pickett. The identical stats from Pickett’s first two seasons are displayed here.
QB Season Yards TD Int Comp Completion Percentage ANY/A 2022 2,404 7 9 63 4.7 2023 2,070 6 4 62 5.29
Tannehill’s ANY/A was 5.29 in 2018, before he started training with Smith. That is precisely the same number that Pickett had in 2023. It’s perhaps asking too much to expect Pickett’s to increase by 3.23 in a single season, but Smith has shown as the play caller that he can be a tremendous asset to his quarterback. Although Tannehill had a stronger body of work—he had already thrown more than 20 touchdown passes in three separate seasons and more than 4,000 passing yards in two Dolphins seasons—his ANY/A stat in 2023 consistently hovered about where Pickett’s did.
After his third season, Pickett will be in a lot better position with a far better career trajectory if he can make even half the leap that Tannehill made. In 2024, he will be surrounded by capable weapons, and the offensive line should be at its strongest point in a number of seasons. Everything is in place for Pickett to have one more shot to demonstrate whether or not he is the Steelers’ long-term solution.
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