TNF: Purple rats vs orange bungle turds.

[suncitysteel]

Pickett had the far superior first game. And tgats why just stat grabbing can absolutely lead to bad conclusions

Pickett threw three picks, two of which hit the wr in the hands and deflected for a int and one that was a desperation hail mary at the end of the game.

Browning threw one Td.. it was a garbage time Td, off a drive that started-down 3 tds with 4 minutes left and against pure prevent… up until that drive he was 5-11 for 37 yards in over a half

He finished 8-14 for 68 yards and a td

Ahhh, yes, nuance and context. Thank you. Just goes to show that stats are only part of the equation.

I hope next gen does something on his completion probability because he had a few that I would say were very low probability with lack of separation and the tight window he had to throw it into.

Yet another thing I hate about current football and the over-reliance on stupid "fantasy" stats and computer analysis .... "next gen", "analytics".... like when I hear the Monday morning mouthpieces say some stupid crap like, "that QB pass in the corner of the end zone, according to analytics, had a 10.6% chance of being a touchdown." Really? Exactly 10.6%? Where do they get this stuff?

Here's a good, reliable stat for you: Does the QB in question win, regardless of nerdy stats and over-analysis? How's his QB's 4th quarter comeback win tally?

As a post-script, I still hold Kenny accountable for his less-than-stellar progression reads and pocket awareness.. but those things are fixable. Bottom line, he's winning when it counts.

 

[Hypocycloids]

I showed on another thread by looking at the available passing charts on next gen stats that Ben in 2021 under Canada threw left 107, middle 145, and right 148. Pickett in 2022 threw left 112, middle 82, and right 111. In 2023 he has thrown left 82, middle 45, and right 84. I also have shown game film showing routes and open guys in the middle. Deep middle is tough to throw in the NFL. It either has to be cover 0 or you have to move the safety. If you look at heat charts of every single QB you will notice they all are cold or blue in the deep middle. Just not a lot of opportunities when you are throwing right where the safeties live. But 10 yards an in is where there's a lot of opportunities to move chains. Kenny is either not seeing them, or late to see them, or throwing an inaccurate ball.

I don't get to watch all the games, so I didn't realize Kenny threw even that many times down the middle. I got the impression that he never or rarely throws down the middle.

 

[FordFairLane]

Ahhh, yes, nuance and context. Thank you. Just goes to show that stats are only part of the equation.



Yet another thing I hate about current football and the over-reliance on stupid "fantasy" stats and computer analysis .... "next gen", "analytics".... like when I hear the Monday morning mouthpieces say some stupid crap like, "that QB pass in the corner of the end zone, according to analytics, had a 10.6% chance of being a touchdown." Really? Exactly 10.6%? Where do they get this stuff?

Here's a good, reliable stat for you: Does the QB in question win, regardless of nerdy stats and over-analysis? How's his QB's 4th quarter comeback win tally?

As a post-script, I still hold Kenny accountable for his less-than-stellar progression reads and pocket awareness.. but those things are fixable. Bottom line, he's winning when it counts.

Analytics are here to stay. If you don't use they your team will die. In business we call it the blockbuster phenomenon. Or XYZ adaption. Blockbuster was on an X trajectory in growth. They had an opportunity to stay ahead of netflix (Z)or continue with their antiquated business model(Y). That is the YZ mark on the growth chart. Y is you be Blockbuster and you go from 8 billion evaluation to having 3 stores remaining. If they would have adapted or even been ahead of the trend they would have been on the Z line and continued to grow. Billy Beane wrote a book called Moneyball 20 years ago talking about analytics.

 

[FordFairLane]

I don't get to watch all the games, so I didn't realize Kenny threw even that many times down the middle. I got the impression that he never or rarely throws down the middle.

If you break it down by outside 2/3 to inside 1/3 that is 166 outside to 45 inside. So if you just watch the game and don't get into the analytics of it most would think he isn't throwing to the middle because he is only doing so 1/4 of his throws. That is not a lot of middle passes by any stretch. If I had the time I would love to analyze every snap and see how many guys are open per game in the middle. I mean I see guys he misses but is it because the middle is so rarely open that he doesn't look there or maybe he just has a hard time reading the middle. I think it is a combination of both. But unless I really dived deep I can't say for certain.

 

[jitter77]

If you break it down by outside 2/3 to inside 1/3 that is 166 outside to 45 inside. So if you just watch the game and don't get into the analytics of it most would think he isn't throwing to the middle because he is only doing so 1/4 of his throws. That is not a lot of middle passes by any stretch. If I had the time I would love to analyze every snap and see how many guys are open per game in the middle. I mean I see guys he misses but is it because the middle is so rarely open that he doesn't look there or maybe he just has a hard time reading the middle. I think it is a combination of both. But unless I really dived deep I can't say for certain.

In your analysis you also forgot he might be told to throw short outside. If your 1 and 2 reads are short out throws by the time you get to your 3rd read in the middle it will be too late or he will be out of time. To me the play to Pickens in the Ravens game sticks out. I don't care what they say, but that was not Canada's call. He was totally stoic. If that was his normal reaction then fine, but he has shown plenty of emotion in the box on both good and bad plays. He seemed genuinely stunned that Pickett threw it deep to Pickens

 

[slashsteel]

In your analysis you also forgot he might be told to throw short outside. If your 1 and 2 reads are short out throws by the time you get to your 3rd read in the middle it will be too late or he will be out of time. To me the play to Pickens in the Ravens game sticks out. I don't care what they say, but that was not Canada's call. He was totally stoic. If that was his normal reaction then fine, but he has shown plenty of emotion in the box on both good and bad plays. He seemed genuinely stunned that Pickett threw it deep to Pickens

Yep that is the design of the scheme. Safe live in their fears crap. It is getting to be really obvious that is the majority of the problem.

 

[FordFairLane]

In your analysis you also forgot he might be told to throw short outside. If your 1 and 2 reads are short out throws by the time you get to your 3rd read in the middle it will be too late or he will be out of time. To me the play to Pickens in the Ravens game sticks out. I don't care what they say, but that was not Canada's call. He was totally stoic. If that was his normal reaction then fine, but he has shown plenty of emotion in the box on both good and bad plays. He seemed genuinely stunned that Pickett threw it deep to Pickens

Maybe, but I don't understand why we would go from a decent amount of over the middle passes to a dramatic drop vs when Ben was in unless it is a comfort thing with Kenny. I honestly think the game right now is too fast for him. Just getting through his reads and is pre-snap recognition isn't there yet. I read an article and that was also Chris Hoke's thinks and he brought up some points on why he thought so.

I really don't know about the Pickens TD. I mean it was cover 0 and my freshman QB son immediately recognized it and said Austin and Pickens will be wide open. So, I hope Kenny saw it. I know it wasn't a complete audible because he didn't gesture the receivers at all or call out to them. He called out a protection to the OL to cover the blitz so if he did make the adjustment or gave Pickens and Austin an option it was in the huddle. We will find out probably next year when Canada is gone and they can freely speak about it.

 

[jitter77]

Ben might not have stuck to the script or had more freedom. There are just so many variables. Without having insider knowledge we are all grasping at straws

 

[Drink IRON City]

Ben might not have stuck to the script or had more freedom. There are just so many variables. Without having insider knowledge we are all grasping at straws

Some straws are grasped harder than others by those grasping.

FF took a lot out of the game over the course of its life. Way way way back when it first started, I spoke of this being the beginning of the end. Some here have become so in flamed in stats (FF driven) that they feels the game is won or lost by the generation of said stats analytically. Those same statistician have eliminated the person / human part of how those stats are generated and how analytical is not a perfect science.

Bottom line is the NFL has changed due to FF and the gambling partnership. Those that think the “Safety” of the players is a real concern of the NFL are vastly fooled as the real concern is keeping said “play makers” on the field to generate the stats.


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