Will Howard and Gruden

[topseed]

The league could turn out to be wrong on him, but when it comes to QBs who are either drafted late or undrafted, the league turns out to be right far more often than not.

Conversely, the league has been wrong more often than not when it comes to QBs drafted in the first round.

2014
#3 Blake Bortles
#22 Johnny Manziel
#32 Teddy Bridgewater

2015
#1 Jameis Winston
#2 Marcus Mariota

2016
#1 Jared Goff
#2 Carson Wentz
#26 Paxton Lynch

2017
#2 Mitchell Trubisky
#10 Deshaun Watson
#12 Patrick Mahomes

2018
#1 Baker Mayfield
#3 Sam Darnold
#7 Josh Allen
#10 Josh Rosen
#32 Lamar Jackson

2019
#1 Kyler Murray
#6 Daniel Jones
#15 Dwayne Haskins

2020
#1 Joe Burrow
#5 Tua Tagovailoa
#6 Justin Herbert
#26 Jordan Love

2021
#1 Trevor Lawrence
#2 Zach Wilson
#3 Trey Lance
#11 Justin Fields
#15 Mac Jones

2022
#20 Kenny Pickett

2023
#1 Bryce Young
#2 CJ Stroud
#4 Anthony Richardson

2024
#1 Caleb Williams
#2 Jayden Daniels
#3 Drake Maye
#8 Michael Penix
#10 JJ McCarthy
#12 Bo Nix

There's a lot more career back-ups and never-was guys on that list than franchise quarterbacks. Bottom line is: Predicting NFL success from a QB, even from some of those who check all the boxes, is a crapshoot. Whether it's the league, or Mel Kiper Jr., or you and me.

 

[Drink IRON City]

Great post topseed, thank you



That gives more reason to how fortunate we were to have Ben for so many years.

A true Franchise QB.



Salute the nation

 

[Steeltime]

Conversely, the league has been wrong more often than not when it comes to QBs drafted in the first round.

2014
#3 Blake Bortles
#22 Johnny Manziel
#32 Teddy Bridgewater

2015
#1 Jameis Winston
#2 Marcus Mariota

2016
#1 Jared Goff
#2 Carson Wentz
#26 Paxton Lynch

2017
#2 Mitchell Trubisky
#10 Deshaun Watson
#12 Patrick Mahomes

2018
#1 Baker Mayfield
#3 Sam Darnold
#7 Josh Allen
#10 Josh Rosen
#32 Lamar Jackson

2019
#1 Kyler Murray
#6 Daniel Jones
#15 Dwayne Haskins

2020
#1 Joe Burrow
#5 Tua Tagovailoa
#6 Justin Herbert
#26 Jordan Love

2021
#1 Trevor Lawrence
#2 Zach Wilson
#3 Trey Lance
#11 Justin Fields
#15 Mac Jones

2022
#20 Kenny Pickett

2023
#1 Bryce Young
#2 CJ Stroud
#4 Anthony Richardson

2024
#1 Caleb Williams
#2 Jayden Daniels
#3 Drake Maye
#8 Michael Penix
#10 JJ McCarthy
#12 Bo Nix

There's a lot more career back-ups and never-was guys on that list than franchise quarterbacks. Bottom line is: Predicting NFL success from a QB, even from some of those who check all the boxes, is a crapshoot. Whether it's the league, or Mel Kiper Jr., or you and me.

Nice work, topseed. When a lot of knowledgeable people say a QB draft is weak - like 2022 - we should probably listen. And when they say a QB draft is deep and good - 2004 and 2020 - again we should listen.

But listening is not projecting. More blue-chip prospects fail than succeed. And I think the 2024 draft with 6 QB's taken in the first 12 picks was driven in large part by the relative weakness of the 2025 QB pool.

 

[Steelers War Room]

Conversely, the league has been wrong more often than not when it comes to QBs drafted in the first round.

2014
#3 Blake Bortles
#22 Johnny Manziel
#32 Teddy Bridgewater

2015
#1 Jameis Winston
#2 Marcus Mariota

2016
#1 Jared Goff
#2 Carson Wentz
#26 Paxton Lynch

2017
#2 Mitchell Trubisky
#10 Deshaun Watson
#12 Patrick Mahomes

2018
#1 Baker Mayfield
#3 Sam Darnold
#7 Josh Allen
#10 Josh Rosen
#32 Lamar Jackson

2019
#1 Kyler Murray
#6 Daniel Jones
#15 Dwayne Haskins

2020
#1 Joe Burrow
#5 Tua Tagovailoa
#6 Justin Herbert
#26 Jordan Love

2021
#1 Trevor Lawrence
#2 Zach Wilson
#3 Trey Lance
#11 Justin Fields
#15 Mac Jones

2022
#20 Kenny Pickett

2023
#1 Bryce Young
#2 CJ Stroud
#4 Anthony Richardson

2024
#1 Caleb Williams
#2 Jayden Daniels
#3 Drake Maye
#8 Michael Penix
#10 JJ McCarthy
#12 Bo Nix

There's a lot more career back-ups and never-was guys on that list than franchise quarterbacks. Bottom line is: Predicting NFL success from a QB, even from some of those who check all the boxes, is a crapshoot. Whether it's the league, or Mel Kiper Jr., or you and me.

This post is also the answer to "we can just draft a QB next year, it's going to be a great QB draft."

 

[WindyCitySteel]

There's a lot more career back-ups and never-was guys on that list than franchise quarterbacks. Bottom line is: Predicting NFL success from a QB, even from some of those who check all the boxes, is a crapshoot. Whether it's the league, or Mel Kiper Jr., or you and me.

Yup, you can go back even further….it’s a really hard position to evaluate, so many factors involved and even if you think you have a “can’t miss” guy, you don’t know until the bullets are live.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

The ten previous drafts produced these first rounders:

2013: EJ Manuel
2012: Luck, RGIII, Tannehill
2011: Newton, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder
2010: Bradford, Tebow
2009: Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2007: Russell, Quinn
2006: Young, Leinart, Cutler
2005: Smith, Rodgers, Campbell
2004: Manning, Rivers, Ben, Losman

2004 draft carried that decade. Better mid to good QBs than the next one, though...

 

[Black & Gold Bleeder]

just a comparason. Will howard 6'4" 236

The 6-foot-4, 236-pound Howard has classic size for the position. He threw for just over 4,000 yards with 35 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2024, completing 73 percent of his passes, also adding 226 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground.

Same size as andrew luck.

 

[steel dino]

Conversely, the league has been wrong more often than not when it comes to QBs drafted in the first round.

2014
#3 Blake Bortles
#22 Johnny Manziel
#32 Teddy Bridgewater

2015
#1 Jameis Winston
#2 Marcus Mariota

#1 Jared Goff
#2 Carson Wentz
#26 Paxton Lynch

2017
#2 Mitchell Trubisky
#10 Deshaun Watson
#12 Patrick Mahomes

2018
#1 Baker Mayfield
#3 Sam Darnold
#7 Josh Allen
#10 Josh Rosen
#32 Lamar Jackson

2019
#1 Kyler Murray
#6 Daniel Jones
#15 Dwayne Haskins

2020
#1 Joe Burrow
#5 Tua Tagovailoa
#6 Justin Herbert
#26 Jordan Love

2021
#1 Trevor Lawrence
#2 Zach Wilson
#3 Trey Lance
#11 Justin Fields
#15 Mac Jones

2022
#20 Kenny Pickett

2023
#1 Bryce Young
#2 CJ Stroud
#4 Anthony Richardson

2024
#1 Caleb Williams
#2 Jayden Daniels
#3 Drake Maye
#8 Michael Penix
#10 JJ McCarthy
#12 Bo Nix

There's a lot more career back-ups and never-was guys on that list than franchise quarterbacks. Bottom line is: Predicting NFL success from a QB, even from some of those who check all the boxes, is a crapshoot. Whether it's the league, or Mel Kiper Jr., or you and me.

Didn’t realize how good the 2018 class was..
Great summary man!

 

[Ovi]

I think Howard is going to be a surprise. I could see a Kirk Cousins/Derek Carr type of career which isn't bad

 

[Steelers War Room]

Didn’t realize how good the 2018 class was..
Great summary man!

I think 2018 is a great overview of what a first round QB is.

Sometimes you have a guy who is destined to succeed - Allen
Sometimes you have a guy who is destined to fail - Rosen
Sometimes you have a guy, who in the right system, with the right coaching, can be great - Lamar
Sometimes you have guys who are more team dependent, and can look like wasted picks on one team, then very good QBs on another - Darnold & Mayfield

It's a crap shoot. That's why I don't fall into the thinking that it's just about drafting a QB in the first round and problem solved. Maybe not a crap shoot exactly (pure luck) but it's also about evaluation of a early 20s kid and how his skill and mindset can mesh within your organization, and your ability to mold him to stardom. Sounds easy, but if it was then that list above wouldn't look as sad as it does.

 

[Lloyd]

Conversely, the league has been wrong more often than not when it comes to QBs drafted in the first round.

2014
#3 Blake Bortles
#22 Johnny Manziel
#32 Teddy Bridgewater

2015
#1 Jameis Winston
#2 Marcus Mariota

2016
#1 Jared Goff
#2 Carson Wentz
#26 Paxton Lynch

2017
#2 Mitchell Trubisky
#10 Deshaun Watson
#12 Patrick Mahomes

2018
#1 Baker Mayfield
#3 Sam Darnold
#7 Josh Allen
#10 Josh Rosen
#32 Lamar Jackson

2019
#1 Kyler Murray
#6 Daniel Jones
#15 Dwayne Haskins

2020
#1 Joe Burrow
#5 Tua Tagovailoa
#6 Justin Herbert
#26 Jordan Love

2021
#1 Trevor Lawrence
#2 Zach Wilson
#3 Trey Lance
#11 Justin Fields
#15 Mac Jones

2022
#20 Kenny Pickett

2023
#1 Bryce Young
#2 CJ Stroud
#4 Anthony Richardson

2024
#1 Caleb Williams
#2 Jayden Daniels
#3 Drake Maye
#8 Michael Penix
#10 JJ McCarthy
#12 Bo Nix

There's a lot more career back-ups and never-was guys on that list than franchise quarterbacks. Bottom line is: Predicting NFL success from a QB, even from some of those who check all the boxes, is a crapshoot. Whether it's the league, or Mel Kiper Jr., or you and me.

It always has been, and likely always will be, a crap shoot.