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The Electoral Map

Steeltime

Steeltime

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Have not paid much attention to the polls or to the status of electoral votes - but paid a visit today to the RealClearPolitics electoral map function. This race comes down to Iowa, Georgia, Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana, and Arizona. (I give Wisconsin, Virginia and Nevada to Clinton.)

Trump needs to win every state listed. That is a tall order ... no, that is basically impossible.

I think he is may well win Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, possibly even Florida, but I just do not see him winning Pennsylvania. If he wins the noted states, and loses Pennsylvania, he loses the electoral vote 278-259.

Right now, polling data show Clinton with a 6 point advantage in Pennsylvania. If she avoids dropping dead over the next two months, I don't see how she loses a 6-point advantage in the state.
 
If we could only sell Philadelphia to New Jersey, things would be a lot better.
 
Steeltime said:
Have not paid much attention to the polls.
Click to expand...

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CNN Poll: Clinton Blows Double Digit Lead, Trails Trump By Two Points Nationally

A new CNN poll shows Republican Donald Trump has closed an 11-point gap with Democrat Hillary Clinton and leads her nationally in the race for the White House

Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepa...oints-n2214263
 
The race comes down to Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Trump has to win 3 of those 4 to prevail. If he loses 2 of those states, he loses the electoral college.
 
Steeltime said:
Have not paid much attention to the polls or to the status of electoral votes - but paid a visit today to the RealClearPolitics electoral map function. This race comes down to Iowa, Georgia, Missouri, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Indiana, and Arizona. (I give Wisconsin, Virginia and Nevada to Clinton.)

Trump needs to win every state listed. That is a tall order ... no, that is basically impossible.

I think he is may well win Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, possibly even Florida, but I just do not see him winning Pennsylvania. If he wins the noted states, and loses Pennsylvania, he loses the electoral vote 278-259.

Right now, polling data show Clinton with a 6 point advantage in Pennsylvania. If she avoids dropping dead over the next two months, I don't see how she loses a 6-point advantage in the state.
Click to expand...


Well, Trump is winning in Iowa, Maine, and Nevada. Blue states. He's in the lead in Florida and Ohio too.

If this holds, he wins. Clinton can't get to 270. In fact, if you took out Ohio, Florida, Maine, Iowa and Nevada from Obama in 2012, he's at 269 electoral votes. 270 is needed otherwise the house votes for the winner.

Clinton can't campaign as well as Obama, count on the black vote in the same numbers, is ill, and will lose the debates. Plus she's a proven liar and in many scandals.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_final_results_map.html
 
Coach said:
Clinton can't campaign as well as Obama, count on the black vote in the same numbers, is ill, and will lose the debates.
Click to expand...

The debates are going to be monumentally important this election.
 
I don't see Trump winning in PA or MI or WI
 
ark steel said:
I don't see Trump winning in PA or MI or WI
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Yep. If you run the electoral map, you see Trump MUST win 3 of 4 as to Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. I think he stands a pretty good chance in Ohio and Florida, but just don't see him winning Virginia or Pennsylvania.

The most recent Pennsylvania poll (taken before the "blackout and get carried into the van" episode, I give you that) indicate that the Hilldog has a 5-point lead in the Keystone state.
 
Steeltime said:
The debates are going to be monumentally important this election.
Click to expand...

Unless Hildebeast drops over from "pneumonia".

Steeltime said:
Yep. If you run the electoral map, you see Trump MUST win 3 of 4 as to Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. I think he stands a pretty good chance in Ohio and Florida, but just don't see him winning Virginia or Pennsylvania.
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No. Too many blacks on welfare in Pittsburgh, Philly, and Harrisburg in PA. Too many Federal employees in Virginia who will always vote for bigger government.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
No. Too many blacks on welfare in Pittsburgh, Philly, and Harrisburg in PA. Too many Federal employees in Virginia who will always vote for bigger government.
Click to expand...

Virginia I think is now a safe Democratic stronghold in Presidential contests for the reasons you mention.

If Trump loses both Virginia and Pennsylvania, then lights out.
 
Plus the governor of VA is doing everything in his power to make sure felons can vote, no way he wins there.
 
Trump wins easily, more huge shoes to drop on Clinton and the polls in every state seriously underestimate the huge Trump movement in the country.
 
come on PA. guys start spreading the gospel.... Trump can win
 
The "new" trump has cut into Clinton's lead very quickly. If he can keep it up and not have major gaffes he has a decent shot. The debates will be interesting. Trump can not win a pure debate vs Clinton. He needs to challenge her without sounding like a 10 year old. I would like to see her have a meltdown on stage with a national audience.
 
jitter77 said:
I would like to see her have a meltdown on stage with a national audience.
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And then **** herself, fall down and have a seizure. It doesn't even need to be in that order, just make it happen. Please, Baby Jesus.

After further review, I would prefer that she has a seizure at the podium, then falls down and then ***** herself. Yeah, that works.
 
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jitter77 said:
The "new" trump has cut into Clinton's lead very quickly. If he can keep it up and not have major gaffes he has a decent shot. The debates will be interesting. Trump can not win a pure debate vs Clinton. He needs to challenge her without sounding like a 10 year old. I would like to see her have a meltdown on stage with a national audience.
Click to expand...

A pure debate and Clinton loses to just about anyone. She is abrasive and not nearly as smart as people would like for her to be. "Her" ideas are stagnant and stupid.
 
Trump is exciting the Reps and people don't realize how bad Romney did in this regard. Romney got 11 MILLION fewer votes than the mediocre McCain in 2008. Me thinks Trump destroys McCains numbers and beats the **** in a landslide.
 
IndySteel said:
And then **** herself, fall down and have a seizure. It doesn't even need to be in that order, just make it happen. Please, Baby Jesus.

After further review, I would prefer that she has a seizure at the podium, then falls down and then ***** herself. Yeah, that works.
Click to expand...

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to IndySteel again.
 
ark steel said:
I don't see Trump winning in PA or MI or WI
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Well see. Hillary has an edge here but it's close and she's fading. At the very least the Dems who seldom spend a lot of money or time in these states in the final weeks will be busy defending them instead of focusing elsewhere.

I think Trump can win in any of these states. If he take 1 out of 3 and wins ohio and Florida he's in good shape.
 
IndySteel said:
And then **** herself, fall down and have a seizure. It doesn't even need to be in that order, just make it happen. Please, Baby Jesus.

After further review, I would prefer that she has a seizure at the podium, then falls down and then ***** herself. Yeah, that works.
Click to expand...

I would rather see her fall down, then go into seizure and close it by ******** herself under seizure.
 
Okay, I see that Colorado has now turned into a "toss-up" state, where the most recent poll shows Trump leading by 3 points. If Trump wins Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa and Missouri, as well as Maine's CD2 (where he is up 10 points), and Hillary wins Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Oregon, and New Mexico ... guess what?

The electoral count is 269-269.
 
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