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Splash play chart.

C

Coach

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Every defense needs them. So being a bit of a stat geek, I'm going to create a " Splash Play Chart " to better reflect who our best players are at getting the defense off the field. It won't be perfect and doesn't mean a player with more points is better than another with fewer points as there is more that goes into being a good player than just splash plays. This chart can be tweaked at a later date with quality feed back.

If there was data on QB who had to throw to throw the ball away, I'd consider that worth a point. If there was the data on a KO of the QB or top skill player with a legal tackle, I'd consider that worth an extra 3 points. I hope you all enjoy this for what it is.

Key:

Sack - 1 point
Pass defended - 1 point
Tackle for loss -1 point
Forced fumble - 1 point
Fumble recovery - 2 points
Interception - 3 points
Blocked punt - 3 points
Blocked Field Goal - 3 points
Safety - 4 points. A score, plus the ball back for the offense is why I gave it a high rating/
Pick six interception - an additional 6 points
Fumble recovery that leads to a score - 6 points

Data as of 11-19-17, listing all 11 starters, plus Hinton who plays a lot of snaps

Shazier 20 points
Watt 20 points
Heyward 18 points
Hilton 14 points
Davis 14 points
Burns 13 points
Dupree 11 points
Haden 9 points
Tuitt 8 points
Williams 8 points
Hargrave 5 points
Mitchell 3 points


http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-steelers


Coach's Comments: Injuries are why Tuitt rates low. The lack of targets due to good coverage, plus the injury is why Haden rates low. With more games played, I think both players would be at 13 points or higher.
 
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That can’t be right. Your reported low rated strong safety is tied for 4th in this chart.

Why is a fumble recovery worth less than a INT? They are the same, a turnover.


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I don't know about sacks only being given 1 point, the lowest play. We are looking for sacks and turnovers (int's and fumbles recovered) typically as splash plays. Maybe if a sack was 2 pts and a QB hurry is one would make more sense.
 
Using Coaches criteria it does show who our BEST 3 or 4 players are. Wouldn't those same three or four be mentioned as our best players even if NOT in a score card format????
I'm a little surprised as to Bud Durpee's positioning in that list. Take it for what it is as all the players are scored the same criteria as the other. Thanks Coach for a different way to
look at the splash play of the players.

TAKE NOTE that Joe Haden is not currently on the field of play when mentioning our best 3-4 players currently playing.


Salute the nation
 
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Drink IRON City Using Coaches criteria it does show who our BEST 3 or 4 players are. Wouldn't those same three or four be mentioned as our best players even if NOT in a score card format????

I'm a little surprised as to Bud Durpee's positioning in that list. Take it for what it is as all the players are scored the same criteria as the other. Thanks Coach for a different way to
look at the splash play of the players.

TAKE NOTE that Joe Haden is not currently on the field of play when mentioning our best 3-4 players currently playing.
Click to expand...

Thanks. I agree Shazier, Watt and Heyward are among out top 5 players on defense. I'd put Tuitt and Haden, who missed time due to injures in our top 5 as well.

The biggest surprise to me was Hilton who has been excellent in his role. I wasn't initially planning to list him, just the starters. His production really stands out!
 
A sack should be worth more than a pass defended.

A sack produces negative yards. A pass defended merely produces a loss of down with 0 yardage. I mean in the greater scheme of the universe, a sack is a better outcome than a pass defended. Particularly if you're talking "Splash Plays".

Furthermore, I would argue that it's not fair to penalize a defensive player if the offense can't capitalize on their work. A fumble recovery that results in an offensive score on the following drive should not be worth more than a fumble recovery that the offense ***** the bed on. That's not Stephon Tuitt's fault. Right?

At the end of the day a big defensive play is a big defensive play regardless of what the offense does with it. That's my thought.
 
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Ike Kelly said:
That can’t be right. Your reported low rated strong safety is tied for 4th in this chart.

Why is a fumble recovery worth less than a INT? They are the same, a turnover.


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Click to expand...

I'll always respond to football contest, Ike. Glad you seem to like my new chart over say PFF's grading system :). As I mentioned in the initial post, its not a complete ranking for the defense, only on splash plays.

As to why I made the interception worth 3 points, an a fumble recovery worth 2 points, for the most part the same player creates the interceptions, and its a split second type of opportunity that end as soon as the ball hits the ground. Usually, but not always the return on an interception is greater.

A fumble recovery is also very important, but really anyone with in diving range of the ball qualifies, and the play is not whistled dead like it is once the pass hits the ground. Sometimes the way the ball bounces ( luck ) determines who gets a fumble recovery. This is why I feel Interceptions are more valuable and from a psychological point, interceptions can mess with a QB's confidence more.

But if the same player forces and recovers the fumble, its worth more than the interception on the chart. I said I can tweak a bit.
 
wig said:
A sack should be worth more than a pass defended.

A sack produces negative yards. A pass defended merely produces a loss of down with 0 yardage. I mean in the greater scheme of the universe, a sack is a better outcome than a pass defended. Particularly if you're talking "Splash Plays".

Furthermore, I would argue that it's not fair to penalize a defensive player if the offense can't capitalize on their work. A fumble recovery that results in an offensive score on the following drive should not be worth more than a fumble recovery that the offense ***** the bed on. That's not Stephon Tuitt's fault. Right?

At the end of the day a big defensive play is a big defensive play regardless of what the offense does with it. That's my thought.
Click to expand...

You could argue a sack from a yardage stand point and be proven correct especially if it takes a team out of scoring range, but the flip side is a clean pass defended prevents more yardage in most cases.

For example If Haden deflects a 20 yard pass that would have been caught, I'll take that over a sack for a 3 yard loss. Either way its a loss of down. I'd rather prevent 20 yards since he made the play then gain 3. Because if the pass was compete, its hurts more. I guess you could say where the PD happens could determine its value best.

I did add extra points for fumble recoveries that lead directly to a touchdown for 6 points. Perhaps fumble recoveries that lead to field goals should be worth three but that would require custom tracking.

Like I said this is a work in progess. Appreciate the feed back and I can change the forula a bit with good reasoning.
 
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And how many blown coverages and easy TD's were caused by everyone running around like chickens with their head cut off trying to make "splash" plays, and leaving gaping holes in the defense?
 
Forgot to us negative numbers for negative splash plays
 
I would say a fumble recovery that immediately puts the offense in FG position may be worth more, but otherwise, you can't really blame the defense if the offense can't capitalize.

I can see your point on passes defensed vs sacks.
 
Coach said:
I'll always respond to football contest, Ike. Glad you seem to like my new chart over say PFF's grading system :). As I mentioned in the initial post, its not a complete ranking for the defense, only on splash plays.

As to why I made the interception worth 3 points, an a fumble recovery worth 2 points, for the most part the same player creates the interceptions, and its a split second type of opportunity that end as soon as the ball hits the ground. Usually, but not always the return on an interception is greater.

A fumble recovery is also very important, but really anyone with in diving range of the ball qualifies, and the play is not whistled dead like it is once the pass hits the ground. Sometimes the way the ball bounces ( luck ) determines who gets a fumble recovery. This is why I feel Interceptions are more valuable and from a psychological point, interceptions can mess with a QB's confidence more.

But if the same player forces and recovers the fumble, its worth more than the interception on the chart. I said I can tweak a bit.
Click to expand...

The stats are what they are, the interpretation is what most, if not all, disagreements are based on. PFF metrics has been shown arguably subjective in their interpretations.

The idea of the splash list is informative. The interpretation of how the points are calculated needs to be thought out more objectively.

A INT is a positive....unless it was 4th down and the pick gave up 30 yards of field position. There are situations that players have to be aware of at any given down and distance.

Describing the different turnovers is subjective based on the stat itself. A INT from a tipped pass pick, is no different than a FF and recovery by another player. So why would they be any different point wise?

I applaud your effort though. Still, you aren’t acknowledging the data you created yourself debunks the opinion of a player you’ve said as much as an underperforming wasted draft pick.


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Ike Kelly said:
The stats are what they are, the interpretation is what most, if not all, disagreements are based on. PFF metrics has been shown arguably subjective in their interpretations.

The idea of the splash list is informative. The interpretation of how the points are calculated needs to be thought out more objectively.

A INT is a positive....unless it was 4th down and the pick gave up 30 yards of field position. There are situations that players have to be aware of at any given down and distance.

Describing the different turnovers is subjective based on the stat itself. A INT from a tipped pass pick, is no different than a FF and recovery by another player. So why would they be any different point wise?

I applaud your effort though. Still, you aren’t acknowledging the data you created yourself debunks the opinion of a player you’ve said as much as an underperforming wasted draft pick.


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Well I guess I can give that a thumbs up.

Without the ability to track where, when and how things happen, I can only assign a general points system. If I had a IT guy and a guy who watched all game to record the data it would be different.

I'm not sure why all road leads to Sean Davis, but to use him as an example his interception in the Titans game ( 4th of the game ) game does not have the same value as say Shazier's pick to preserve a win. Yet they both get the same amount of " splash play points " on the created chart.

On Davis he has played better lately and I think he's a better player than Mitchell, and more valuable to the team than say under used Hargrave.
 
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I didn't read every detail. In general, I think I'd rate a Sack more points than a tackle for a loss. I'd suspect most sacks lose more yards than a TFL. It'd be something to think about regarding the rate you give a FF vs a FR. As you note the FR could be just the person being right there. But the FR never happens without a FF.
 
ark steel said:
I didn't read every detail. In general, I think I'd rate a Sack more points than a tackle for a loss. I'd suspect most sacks lose more yards than a TFL. It'd be something to think about regarding the rate you give a FF vs a FR. As you note the FR could be just the person being right there. But the FR never happens without a FF.
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I guess I could use .5's So a sack is 1.5 points and a pass defended is 1 point, but where and when they happen means a lot too. Better?

Sometimes a player just drops a ball and the defender falls on it, nothing was forced. We see it mostly in kick returns, when the ball slips out of the QB's hands, or when a bone head spikes it in bounds.
 
Coach said:
I guess I could use .5's So a sack is 1.5 points and a pass defended is 1 point, but where and when they happen means a lot too. Better?
Click to expand...

When and where they happen does mean something, but I think you have a good start on something is fairly basic with easily recognizable stats that anyone can verify and duplicate. Nothing you do can take into consideration everything and too much detail sucks you into a black hole of data that no one can verify.

Coach said:
Sometimes a player just drops a ball and the defender falls on it, nothing was forced. We see it mostly in kick returns, when the ball slips out of the QB's hands, or when a bone head spikes it in bounds.
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While true, I don't know if the stat keepers give that to the person who was closest as a FF or just show it is a fumble. I'd also, suspect this is the minority of overall fumbles.
 
Can we all just agree that Coach didn't like Davis and made disparaging comments

And that now Davis is playing pretty well and Coach has to eat some crow and he doesn't much like it but he's eating it unhappily

And can we just ******* let it alone.

Coach, put some salt on the crow

Everyone else, give it up already.

Jesus.
 
Coach said:
You could argue a sack from a yardage stand point and be proven correct especially if it takes a team out of scoring range, but the flip side is a clean pass defended prevents more yardage in most cases.

For example If Haden deflects a 20 yard pass that would have been caught, I'll take that over a sack for a 3 yard loss. Either way its a loss of down. I'd rather prevent 20 yards since he made the play then gain 3. Because if the pass was compete, its hurts more. I guess you could say where the PD happens could determine its value best.

.
Click to expand...

But what if the sack occurred on a long pass play targeted for 40 yards down the field?

Then it would be the 40 yards prevented + the negative yards for the sack + loss of down.

Sack should be higher....
 
Great job factoring in TFLs. Those I think should be marked plays and talked along side of sacks and tackles. A TFL or Sack is obviously more valuable than any normal tackle. A tackle for no gain is also important, but not as important as the other splash plays listed.

I've also found that turnover on downs tackles should be listed as a turnover against the offensive team. It is not, but it is just as important as a FR or INT. Your team loses possession, and that is the most important thing a defense can do.

Other splash plays that should be considered (if they haven't been already):
Safeties
2pt fail
blocked punts/kicks

All of these defensive plays are very impactful to preventing points, gaining excellent field position, or scoring points on D.

Great job Coach, I like what you're starting here!
 
If you look at the statisticians who record the entries...Football, Baseball, Basketball etc., there is a process that is followed to determine those stats.

In my youth I worked for a minor league baseball team. I sat next to the individual who determined the hits, errors and put outs for the game record. The individual keeping stats was a sports writer (as most teams use newspaper writers for this role) and apparently there is a code these folks follow to protect the tradition of the sport. Having said that, there is no doubt “home cooking” occurs on some calls.

Regardless, the code includes keeping it simple, but ruling an outcome decision based on the situation at hand.

Personally, I just wish the NFL could simplify the definition of a catch. That would be a good start.


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