Points after TD percentages and scoring rates

[Stryker]

I know I had preseason discussions with many board members on the fact that the percentages would mark a significant increase in going for 2 with the new rules the way they are written. The Steelers this season just set a league record for 2pt conversions (8) and attempts (11) in a season giving a 72.7% conversion rate. We had over twice as many attempts over every team but Green Bay (6). And we had twice as many conversions than any other team in the league. 8 conversions is 16 points out of a possible 22. Since the conversion rate was over 50% (which would be a 1pt average per attempt), the Steelers gained 5 points over being perfect kicking XPs.

Kicking XPs, only 5 teams were perfect on the season: JAX (48), ATL (39), STL (29), MIN (28), CIN (27). Interesting that 3 are dome teams with optimal kicking conditions. JAX is significant, since they attempted so many extra points, and Cincy is also the only northern outdoor team with a perfect record. I believe last week was the only sub freezing game in Cincy all season. The steelers finished 25th going 29 for 32 at 90.6%.

To take these stats and see the points per attempt you get:

2pts 16/11 = 1.45 PPA
1pt 29/32 = 0.906 PPA

Combined result:
45/43 = 1.046 PPA

So going for 2 was a +5 yield while kicking XPs was a -3 yield. On the season we finished +2 points over traditional kicking XPs at 100% conversion.

To finish the season above a 1 PPA is significant, only Minnesota (1.034) and Cincinnati (1.035) finished above 1PPA due to their perfect XP kicking and each going 1/1 on 2pt conversions. Both of those teams finished with a +1 net. The only way to get above a 1 is to attempt 2pt conversions. Conversely Seattle was the worst in the league with a combined net of -6 and 0.8 PPA.

 

[SteelerSask2]

I'd have never argued if they would have rolled one strategy throughout the year unless strategy dictated that they had to go with the opposite. didn't like the way they kept flipping around. thought that was dumb.

 

[Steelerfan]

I know I had preseason discussions with many board members on the fact that the percentages would mark a significant increase in going for 2 with the new rules the way they are written. The Steelers this season just set a league record for 2pt conversions (8) and attempts (11) in a season giving a 72.7% conversion rate. We had over twice as many attempts over every team but Green Bay (6). And we had twice as many conversions than any other team in the league. 8 conversions is 16 points out of a possible 22. Since the conversion rate was over 50% (which would be a 1pt average per attempt), the Steelers gained 5 points over being perfect kicking XPs.

Kicking XPs, only 5 teams were perfect on the season: JAX (48), ATL (39), STL (29), MIN (28), CIN (27). Interesting that 3 are dome teams with optimal kicking conditions. JAX is significant, since they attempted so many extra points, and Cincy is also the only northern outdoor team with a perfect record. I believe last week was the only sub freezing game in Cincy all season. The steelers finished 25th going 29 for 32 at 90.6%.

To take these stats and see the points per attempt you get:

2pts 16/11 = 1.45 PPA
1pt 29/32 = 0.906 PPA

Combined result:
45/43 = 1.046 PPA

So going for 2 was a +5 yield while kicking XPs was a -3 yield. On the season we finished +2 points over traditional kicking XPs at 100% conversion.

To finish the season above a 1 PPA is significant, only Minnesota (1.034) and Cincinnati (1.035) finished above 1PPA due to their perfect XP kicking and each going 1/1 on 2pt conversions. Both of those teams finished with a +1 net. The only way to get above a 1 is to attempt 2pt conversions. Conversely Seattle was the worst in the league with a combined net of -6 and 0.8 PPA.

Too much math. I have a headache, LOL

 

[Troglodyte]

I'd have never argued if they would have rolled one strategy throughout the year unless strategy dictated that they had to go with the opposite. didn't like the way they kept flipping around. thought that was dumb.

I think going with one strategy can only apply to the first 3 quarters. At some point, you need to think. If an extra point will put you up by 4 late in the game and you have a 95% chance of making it, you kick. You don't take the 50-50 shot of going for 2 and being up either 5 or 3.

 

[Max Power]

JAX (48), ATL (39), STL (29), MIN (28), CIN (27). Interesting that 3 are dome teams with optimal kicking conditions.[/B] JAX is significant, since they attempted so many extra points, and Cincy is also the only northern outdoor team with a perfect record. I believe last week was the only sub freezing game in Cincy all season. The steelers finished 25th going 29 for 32 at 90.6%.

Incorrect data here. Of those five teams only two played in Domes. Atlanta and St Louis. The rest are out in the elements. Minnesota this year has played at TCF while their new home is being built. Out doors and cold, these days.

 

[SteelerSask2]

I think going with one strategy can only apply to the first 3 quarters. At some point, you need to think. If an extra point will put you up by 4 late in the game and you have a 95% chance of making it, you kick. You don't take the 50-50 shot of going for 2 and being up either 5 or 3.

Agreed. That was what I was trying to say. Do one thing until strategy dictates deciding.