Outside chance for the division

[topseed]

Thanks for breaking this down. I expect the Bengals to pound the 49ers though. Didn't the 49ers just give up 9 sacks to the Browns --- how is that even possible? In a weird way, the Dalton injury might help the Bengals in the short term by forcing them to run the ball instead of getting so damn cute on offense. There's no reason - short of giving the game away - that the Bengals shouldn't crush the 49ers on both sides of the ball, but of course I'll root for the Bungles to be the Bungles.

No problem.

There is some hope for the 49ers...since Gabbert took over as the starting quarterback, they are 1-1 at home, beating Atlanta and losing to the mighty Cardinals by only 6 points in a game that was tied 13-13 with 3 minutes left.

 

[insaniti]

Thanks for breaking this down. I expect the Bengals to pound the 49ers though. Didn't the 49ers just give up 9 sacks to the Browns --- how is that even possible? In a weird way, the Dalton injury might help the Bengals in the short term by forcing them to run the ball instead of getting so damn cute on offense. There's no reason - short of giving the game away - that the Bengals shouldn't crush the 49ers on both sides of the ball, but of course I'll root for the Bungles to be the Bungles.

SF played Cleveland IN Cleveland, Cinci has to go to SF. It's not a gimme game at all.

 

[SteelerAl]

SF played Cleveland IN Cleveland, Cinci has to go to SF. It's not a gimme game at all.

I hope I'm wrong, but I really do expect a beatdown by the Bengals. They have a deep and talented roster and the comparison to San Fran's roster is laughable. This will be an interesting test for Marvin Lewis. I feel Tomlin has done some of his best work when Ben has been injured --- he finds a way to get the rest of the team to rise up to overcome the shortcomings at QB. Will Marvin do the same? Will he put McCarron in a position to succeed by doing a lot of handing off or will he keep the offense as is and expose McCarron to a bunch of turnovers?

This is an interesting article:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/1...-bengals-built-competitive-even-backup-qb-nfl

 

[madinsomniac]

I would think that Cincinnati-San Fran would have some relevance because it is a "common game," and the Steelers have already beaten the 49ers. That's why I thought it would fall to SOV if the Bengals beat SF, lose their last two, and the Steelers win out.ym



In that case, common games would look like this:

They both beat the Browns twice.
They both split with the Ravens.
They both beat Oakland.
They both beat San Diego.
They both beat St. Louis.
They both beat San Francisco.
Cincinnati beat the Chiefs and Seahawks, Steelers lost both.
Steelers beat the Cardinals and Broncos, Cincinnati lost both.

So common games would be equal, as would conference games at 8-4. Then SOV comes into play, and who knows what that will look like in three weeks. I'd rather see SF win -- makes things a lot more simple.

Its irrelivent if the bengals win or lose vs the 49rs. All three remaining games are common opponants. They are not an afc team. They also have a crappier sov than denver. Win or lose vs the 9rs we need cinci to lose vs denvrr and the ravens

 

[POP]

We just need to win our remaining games which hopefully this team is up to the challenge ahead of them. They do understand that they control their own destiny regardless of what the others do!!!

That's not really true; if KC and Jets win out, we are out. But I got to think between the two of them, one will lose a game, but it's not a given. Of course, it would be just like Cinci to implode and lose out the final 3, even though they are playing weak teams.

 

[insaniti]

That's not really true; if KC and Jets win out, we are out. But I got to think between the two of them, one will lose a game, but it's not a given. Of course, it would be just like Cinci to implode and lose out the final 3, even though they are playing weak teams.

How many times does this need to be gone over for you people to understand. IF WE WIN OUT WE ARE IN. It doesn't matter if the Jets win out, it doesn't matter if the Chiefs win out...If the Chiefs win out and we win out, KC is the 5th seed and we are the 6th seed... BUT that is only if the Bengals can hang on to the division lead.

If the Jets win out and we win out, we win the tie breaker with the Jets based on our SOV as we would both have the same conference record. It's been gone over several times in this thread alone. We control our own destiny.

 

[wig]

POP doesn't want the Steelers in the playoffs. He isn't listening... On purpose.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

The bad news is the Bengals, no matter what, will have to lose the last game of the year at home against the Ravens for the Steelers to have a chance at the division. And from what I can determine, it looks like Pittsburgh will have to win it outright, because if they finish tied, all tiebreakers down through #5 (strength-of-victory) favor Cincinnati. The good news is, if the Steelers get in as a wild card, they will either face a weak AFC South opponent or probably the Bengals again on the road -- where they've won 13 of their last 15 games.

EDIT: ESPN playoff machine has the Steelers winning the division at 11-5 if the Bengals beat San Fran and lose their last two, with the rest of the games based on power rankings. Too tired to double-check.

I think we can win out. The Bungles will have a harder time with Dalton out. This week they have to play the 49'ers with a backup QB, on the other hand the 49'ers aren't very good.

 

[topseed]

Its irrelivent if the bengals win or lose vs the 49rs. All three remaining games are common opponants. They are not an afc team. They also have a crappier sov than denver. Win or lose vs the 9rs we need cinci to lose vs denvrr and the ravens

Again, I disagree that it's irrelevant. For the reasons I explained above. It may appear that way to you right now, but we don't how the strength-of-victory tiebreaker will break down until all games are played. SOV is calculated by combining the winning percentages of every opponent a team has beaten. I know the Bengals have beaten Seattle and KC, and those teams are most likely going to finish the season strongly. And I know that the Steelers beating Baltimore and Cleveland will drag their SOV number lower. Therefore, it's hard to set it in stone at this point.

So yes, the Bengals need to lose to Denver and Baltimore, but a loss to San Francisco will only help the Steelers' chances to win the division.

 

[topseed]

I think we can win out. The Bungles will have a harder time with Dalton out. This week they have to play the 49'ers with a backup QB, on the other hand the 49'ers aren't very good.

I do too. The problem, I'm afraid, is going to come in week 17 when we're counting on the Ravens to win in Cincinnati with their fourth-string QB. But again, that very well may result in a road game against the Bengals in the first round, which I'm confident the Steelers would win. Then the problem becomes playing at the Pats in round 2, which I'm not at all confident the Steelers would win.

 

[bigtwnvin]

I would think that Cincinnati-San Fran would have some relevance because it is a "common game," and the Steelers have already beaten the 49ers. That's why I thought it would fall to SOV if the Bengals beat SF, lose their last two, and the Steelers win out.

In that case, common games would look like this:

They both beat the Browns twice.
They both split with the Ravens.
They both beat Oakland.
They both beat San Diego.
They both beat St. Louis.
They both beat San Francisco.
Cincinnati beat the Chiefs and Seahawks, Steelers lost both.
Steelers beat the Cardinals and Broncos, Cincinnati lost both.

So common games would be equal, as would conference games at 8-4. Then SOV comes into play, and who knows what that will look like in three weeks. I'd rather see SF win -- makes things a lot more simple.

The Bengals can beat the Niners with McCarron and guys off the bench. The Niners are a train wreck and the Bengals Defense could very well shut out the Rats.
The Steelers will likely grab the #6 Seed when the Jets finally lose to NE and go back to Cincinnati in round 1.
Get used to it.

 

[topseed]

The Bengals can beat the Niners with McCarron and guys off the bench. The Niners are a train wreck and the Bengals Defense could very well shut out the Rats.
The Steelers will likely grab the #6 Seed when the Jets finally lose to NE and go back to Cincinnati in round 1.
Get used to it.

And the Eagles were a train wreck that had just allowed 90 total points to the Bucs and Lions, but somehow went into New England and beat the Patriots. That's why they play the games...get used to it.

 

[Drink IRON City]

The STEELERS are perinial winners...............get use to it.




Salute the nation

 

[SteelerAl]

I think the Bengals are going to crush the 49ers this week. But who the **** knows? McCarron could get injured on the first play of the game. Anything can happen, we can miss the playoffs or be the #2 seed. Let's just enjoy the ride.

For those of you who insist on being so definitive "No way [x] team will ever beat [y]", why even watch or discuss on a message board? Relax, have a beer and enjoy the show.

 

[madinsomniac]

Right now the most likely scenerio is the sixth seed. This can be obtained simply by winning out, or by winning 2 of 3 and having the jets lose to an afc team. If we lose one, kc loses two or more and the jets won out that would also put us sixth There are more less-likely scenerios with 2 losses not worth discussing. Ther is not one if we lose out.

The nextmost likely scenerio is fifth seed. This is accomplished by us winning 1 more game than kc and still holding the tiebreaker with the jets.

There is no way to get the 4th seed... The afcsouth sucktitude ensures that.

The division and third seed is doable if we win out and cinci loses out or loses the last two games and we hold the sov advantage against them.

The second seed is doable if we beat cinci for the division, denver looses out and kc loses at least one game. If this happens im trying to chug a bottle of jack... Btw...