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Most oft-repeated retarded point

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How many times do I have to about 3rd-down conversion %?

Why? Isn't it important?

Sure it is, but not for the reason the empty suits say.

They always refer to 3rd-down conversion, taking it at face value. They act as if it is all about converting the play, in it of itself. But what they never bring up is the conversion of 3rd downs is usually a direct correlation in how well you do on 1st and 2nd downs. In other words, you convert way more 3rd and 2's than you do 3rd and 8 or 10 or longer.

When they say "So and so is excellent at converting on 3rd downs" they usually don't bother to mention that much of their 3rd downs are 3rd and short, as is often the case with teams like Dallas.

Now, there are ALSO other elements, like a team simply being good at crunch time on 3rd downs, even if they are not all short, but that is just part of the story, not the WHOLE story.
 
They do, sometimes, give you a stat on how good the team is at converting 3rd and long.

I think the problem, with looking too closely there, is that the sample size is, presumably smaller.

Some examples

Yards to go:

[TABLE="width: 308"]


<colgroup><col width="77" style="width: 58pt;" span="4">
<tbody>[TR]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]PIT[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]DAL[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]*'s[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]1-2[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]72.00%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]71.88%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]60.00%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]3-5[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]48.00%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]48.65%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]65.85%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]6-10[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]39.22%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]37.50%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]36.76%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]11-15[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11.76%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]35.29%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]23.81%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]16+[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]18.18%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.00%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11.11%[/TD]

[/TR]


</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Team with the three Best overall % in the league:

[TABLE="width: 308"]


<colgroup><col width="77" style="width: 58pt;" span="4">
<tbody>[TR]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]NO[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]GB[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]WAS[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]1-2[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]72.50%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]63.33%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]64.29%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]3-5[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]63.64%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]60.47%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]59.46%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]6-10[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]35.71%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]45.16%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]43.14%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]11-15[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]21.05%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]21.05%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]17.65%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]16+[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]16.67%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11.11%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.00%[/TD]

[/TR]


</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
ark steel said:
They do, sometimes, give you a stat on how good the team is at converting 3rd and long.

I think the problem, with looking too closely there, is that the sample size is, presumably smaller.

Some examples

Yards to go:

[TABLE="width: 308"]


<colgroup><col width="77" style="width: 58pt;" span="4">
<tbody>[TR]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]PIT[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]DAL[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]*'s[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent"]1-2[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]72.00%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]71.88%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]60.00%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]3-5[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]48.00%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]48.65%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]65.85%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]6-10[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]39.22%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]37.50%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]36.76%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]11-15[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11.76%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]35.29%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]23.81%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]16+[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]18.18%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.00%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl64, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]11.11%[/TD]

[/TR]


</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...

Yea, it's all PART of the picture; I just don't like when they bring up 3rd down conversions without taking into consideration how they sit on 3rd down and how the success of 1st and 2nd downs strongly impact 3rd down conversion. Sitting at 3rd and 2 is different than 3rd and 8, big time. If a D has to worry about a possible rushing play, it alters things quite a bit.
 
This may be more to your point:

Percentage of 3rd Down plays with Yards to go:

[TABLE="width: 503"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PIT[/TD]
[TD]DAL[/TD]
[TD]WAS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1 to 2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16.23%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]22.54%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]27.10%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3 to 5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.47%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]26.06%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23.87%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6 to 10[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33.12%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]33.80%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]32.90%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11 to 15[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.04%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]11.97%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.97%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16+[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.14%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.63%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody><colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>[/TABLE]
 
The last chart shows that, while those three teams all have 48-50% of their third down plays at 3rd and 1 to 3rd and 5, a pretty good portion of the Steelers falls in the 3-5 yards vs 1-2 and for the other teams it is more evenly distributed.
 
My concern more than the stats, how many time we give up easily 3- and more than 10 yards. We continue to not stop a team giving us poor field position for most of the game.
 
black and gold apex said:
My concern more than the stats, how many time we give up easily 3- and more than 10 yards. We continue to not stop a team giving us poor field position for most of the game.
Click to expand...

The two best teams with D giving up the fewest % of 3rd Down Conversions compared to the Steelers. 1st number is conversion rate, 2nd is the percentage of 3rd down plays in that range

[TABLE="width: 539"]


<colgroup><col width="77" style="width: 58pt;" span="7">
<tbody>[TR]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]PIT[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]%[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]BAL[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]%[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]MIA[/TD]

[TD="width: 77, bgcolor: transparent"]%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]1 to 2[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]61.29%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]19.25%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]52.94%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]20.61%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]58.33%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]15.38%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]3 to 5[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]39.39%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]20.50%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]45.83%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]29.09%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]41.67%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]23.08%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]6 to 10[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]32.43%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]45.96%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]19.23%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]31.52%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]36.67%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]38.46%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]11 to 15[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]37.50%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]9.94%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]25.00%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]9.70%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]16.67%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]15.38%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]16+[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]0.00%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]4.35%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]6.67%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]9.09%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]8.33%[/TD]

[TD="class: xl63, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]7.69%[/TD]

[/TR]


</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
11-15 looks horrible just compared to those two.
 
Whew,.........thought this was going to be about something cheatriot.....!!!!!!!!



Our D is getting better and we will see if this 3rd down thing gets better. They do have the other team definately moving the ball between the twenties. I'd like to see these stats of ONLY inside the red zone. VS. our "D". I think we are pretty good when in the red zone.




Salute the nation
 
POP said:
How many times do I have to about 3rd-down conversion %?

Why? Isn't it important?

Sure it is, but not for the reason the empty suits say.

They always refer to 3rd-down conversion, taking it at face value. They act as if it is all about converting the play, in it of itself. But what they never bring up is the conversion of 3rd downs is usually a direct correlation in how well you do on 1st and 2nd downs. In other words, you convert way more 3rd and 2's than you do 3rd and 8 or 10 or longer.

When they say "So and so is excellent at converting on 3rd downs" they usually don't bother to mention that much of their 3rd downs are 3rd and short, as is often the case with teams like Dallas.

Now, there are ALSO other elements, like a team simply being good at crunch time on 3rd downs, even if they are not all short, but that is just part of the story, not the WHOLE story.
Click to expand...

Can we add time of possession? It's not how long you have the ball, it what you do with it. Hold the ball for 40 minutes kick 2 fgs and have a red zone turnover, I bet it doesn't matter.
 
Third down conversion is a pretty big stat. But yeah it is a deceptive one. If you stay a head of the chains and end up with third and two it's a lot different than third and 15. I find with the Steelers it usually comes down to turnovers. I was shocked last week. Usually when they turn the ball over its an auto major.
 
Eli did pretty well on 3rd and 17 last week.
 
You are right. That was a huge conversion. And it is plays like that and the Steelers red zone defense last week that separates winning and losing. The Giants left a he'll of a lot of points out there.
 
Rushing 3 men on 3rd and 15+ yards. Just don't.
 
black and gold apex said:
My concern more than the stats, how many time we give up easily 3- and more than 10 yards. We continue to not stop a team giving us poor field position for most of the game.
Click to expand...

That's a whole other disturbing trend and it's been that way for a long time. It's like when we get a team in 3rd and long, odds are we give up a 1st down. Frustrating.
 
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