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they know that for every two good games by Fitzmagic there comes at least one terrible by Fitztragic so it's all about odds, they are betting on statistics
He was due for his annual stretch of bad games. It seems like Miami was committed--even if only privately--to starting Tua after the bye week otherwise it's a curious decision.
There's really not much to lose. It's as easy as ever for a rookie QB to step in and play well. If he struggles and they lose they get a higher draft pick to add more talent. They have the Texans first- and second-round picks next year on top of their own so they'd be in better position for players or to make a trade. If they win and make the playoffs they'll likely have a better chance to make a run with Tua over Fitzpatrick.