I'm Nervous About This Draft

[ark steel]

According to that chart, pick #22 is roughly equivalent to pick #37 plus pick #69. I really doubt Colbert would move back 15 picks just to pick up an early 3rd round pick. Just doesn't seem like him. He always says that he doesn't want to trade down into an unknown (i.e. you have no idea what will be left at pick #37). He believes that if you are sitting at #22 and have 5 guys you like, then it's OK to drop down 5 spots. And of course he has only traded down (in round 1) once, going back 3 spots before taking Casey Hampton.

I don't think he would make that trade either, but I think I'd do it. I think we could get good value in positions of need out of an early 2nd and early 3rd to go with our other 2nd and 3rd picks. I'm also not convinced that those need positions we have will have good value at 1.22.

A more likely trade-down would be to 1.26-1.28, I'd think.

 

[steelhurt]

Well Gregory is most likely to drop and just how far remains to be seen but not as far down as #22. The guy I've been wanting is Bud Dupree but most likely gone in mid rounds as well. So with that being said plan B I would think would be turn the attention to CB and if Peters and Johnson are there which I think they will be, then its one of the two. I hope that its Peters whom I happen to think is the best CB in this draft and am willing to overlook his issues from college but that would depend on how the young man came across when he met with the Steelers in his pre draft visit. Second round has to be the best OLB that's available. Third round best wide receiver available and fourth round best TE most likely J.James.

As for trading down in the first at #22 I just don't see that occurring at this point. This team under Colbert and Tomlin don't have a history of that in the first round so unless its a great offer from a trading partner I wouldn't look for it at #22. These two better be clicking on all cylinders in this draft or it could start the beginning of the end for both of them. These two have to be the most nervous since they have a lot riding on the last two high picks in Jones and Shazier and have to get it right with this draft. They did next to nothing so far in replacing our OLB'ers, CB's and Safety's. They will have a hard time explaining any more failures to replace the guys we've lost.

 

[Wingman]

We've been saying on this board "this draft is super important" every year since I've been here.

They are all the same importance.

Del they are all important however i think this one is of major importance because of some poor drafts in the not to distant past, and the fact that we have a short time left with our franchise QB. We no longer seem to have the next man up on the team and need to add several good players not for depth but to find starting talent. Missing this year puts us in some serious holes, and Tombert does not seem willing to put down the shovel.

 

[MT~Forged]

Brady and Manning are still full steam ahead.. Ben is a competitor, I don't think his decline starts just yet.

Manning is more of a cerebral type of QB, they are able to play a bit longer than normal.

Brady is a product of cheating, so he can play well into his 50's.

Ben is more of a Brett Favre type player, one who doesn't know when to quit. I think he will be done at least 2-3 years before he retires. The Steelers will be willing to let him go till the sorry end.

 

[F83]

I say take at 22 CB Jhonson
round 2 trade up for Orchard
round 3 take a A LIKE aNTHONY hARRIS
ROUND 4 GET ANOTHER CB LIKE shaw or Gunter (the U)
round 5 pick likely gone along with a 6th in trading up a few spots to secure Orchard

6 b RB Malcolm Brown
7 DT Ray Drew

 

[SteelBuckeye]

Manning is more of a cerebral type of QB, they are able to play a bit longer than normal.

Brady is a product of cheating, so he can play well into his 50's.

Ben is more of a Brett Favre type player, one who doesn't know when to quit. I think he will be done at least 2-3 years before he retires. The Steelers will be willing to let him go till the sorry end.

In 2009, at age 40 and his second to last year in the NFL, Brett Favre had the following stats:

16 Starts in 16 games
Led the Vikings to a 12 - 4 record
363 completions on 531 attempts (68.4%)
4202 Yards
33 TDs v. 7 INTs
7.9 Y/A
11.6 Y/C
262.6 Y/G
107.2 Rating/71.91 QBR

If Ben is giving us that same type of production in 7 years, I'll take it. strike that; I'd be over the moon ecstatic! Even if the following year is his last.

 

[Troglodyte]

I agree. THis draft really needs to be well above average if this team is to improve thier chances as a playoff contender.

AS I look at this team right now it is on the decline.

How often do rookie contributions have a significant impact on the season? Don't forget about the young players already on the team.

 

[bermudasteel]

There's no need to be nervous IF we move up and get a QUALITY PASS RUSHING DEMON. "Sackle ya vibe nah, mon"...

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

Nice post tape, but I don"t agree with this:



Not if you look at his sparq scores, not of you look at his 40 time, not if you consider their experience with DE-to-LB conversions over the years. I think Diggy has all the traits - even moreso - than previous DL-to-LB guys like Woodley for instance. Sure he is big and strong and has heavy hands, all of which you want from your LOLB, but DIggy can also move in space. All told, I think he's a perfect fit to play linebacker in our system. Maybe they learned their lesson drafting a college LB in Jones and want to get back to the formula that is tried and tested over the years.

I was just saying that the steelers may view him as a DE. I think he can play OLB.

The scenario i laid out is essentially what happend last year at CB.

Supposedly, they loved Fuller and when he was gone, they thought they'd wait. Then each coming round, they didn't see enough "value" at CB so they kept putting it off until Shaq Richardson in Rd 5. He didn't even make the practice squad and today he was cut by Arizona. The guy can't make a 90 man roster.


I'm worried about the same thing happening with OLB. They will have a high grade on a few guys and when they are gone, they think they can just wait and draft a guy in Rd 4 or 5 and he'll be just as good as the 2nd round guys.

Steelers used to be able to do that, but more teams running the 3-4 coupled with the Steelers higher miss rate in the draft makes it dangerous. They missed on Jarvis in the first, which makes you question their evaluations.

 

[Drink IRON City]

Lots of good points Tape. Its been said, and I agree, the talent evaluation of this current regime, is lacking. Who specifically, has many opinions on that. Cohwer and co. had a lot of leeway as the number of 3-4s were few and at one point, only us. It gave us so much more to chose from. NOT the case this day and age. Jarvis is a miss, unless he shows MAJOR improvement this year, start of first 4-games this season. I think Tuitt will make a big jump. Seems everyone forgets about Heywood, is he still on team / injuired? He should be good also.



Salute the nation

 

[nooneuno]

I think they fall in love with CB Byron Jones and his freakish athletic skills and draft him at 22 with a pick no one expects.

 

[keslerclan]

Yea, Diggy looks like a perfect fit for 4-3 end ala JPP (but with better college production and KEI) but if we traded with Dallas...I think they take him. I too think he would be the perfect LOLB protecting Tuitt on the edge. He already has the run support ability and with his strength and a few moves he could be special. Probably won't happen though. I'm ok w taking Peters at CB or Waynes if he falls that far but we are sitting at the edge of the drop-off of talent right now at #22.

Maybe we get lucky and somebody who wasn't supposed to be there is available BUT I sure hope its not a guy like Gregory, Coates, Clemmings or Hunter...pass.

BTW, KC cut Shaq Richardson with a failure to disclose injury designation :idk:

 

[Ron Burgundy]

That's ridiculous. The entire offense is young and moving towards their prime. Ben put up his best career numbers. The defense needs a better pass rush and they're super bowl contenders. Christ they probably would've went to the AFC Championship game last year had Bell not been hurt.

Agreed, but the O better set their sights on scoring 40 every week because the D is going to give up 30. The D was bad last year, it will be worse this year, and it will be bad for some time to come. Even if Tombert drafts some good players it usually takes two or three years until they're any good. To this point there is almost no evidence that they can draft and develop good defensive players.

 

[Wingman]

Lots of good points Tape. Its been said, and I agree, the talent evaluation of this current regime, is lacking. Who specifically, has many opinions on that. Cohwer and co. had a lot of leeway as the number of 3-4s were few and at one point, only us. It gave us so much more to chose from. NOT the case this day and age. Jarvis is a miss, unless he shows MAJOR improvement this year, start of first 4-games this season. I think Tuitt will make a big jump. Seems everyone forgets about Heywood, is he still on team / injuired? He should be good also.



Salute the nation

Iron someone I think it might have been tibs posted a video clip of owa zigydodah...what ever his name is and the young man sounded good and mentioned that he was interested in playing end or 3/4 outside linebacker and was doing everything to be considered for that spot. I think he would be a worth while pick as would that Byron Jones kid. It would sure as heel be nice to get them both!!!!

 

[ZACKB]

Owa has an inconsistent pass rush and has had 2 hip surgeries. No way do I take him in rd 1.

 

[Wingman]

Owa has an inconsistent pass rush and has had 2 hip surgeries. No way do I take him in rd 1.

It appears the surgeries were quite successful thus his really good sparq scores. By the way right now listed in the starting spot is a guy (JJ) who at best could be called inconsistent and we have Spence in the inside who has had multiple injuries and surgeries.

 

[TDX27]

Owa has an inconsistent pass rush and has had 2 hip surgeries. No way do I take him in rd 1.

Not sure I'd take him in any round but maybe after the 3rd. 2 hip surgeries before entering the NFL is not a good thing.

 

[MT~Forged]

In 2009, at age 40 and his second to last year in the NFL, Brett Favre had the following stats:

16 Starts in 16 games
Led the Vikings to a 12 - 4 record
363 completions on 531 attempts (68.4%)
4202 Yards
33 TDs v. 7 INTs
7.9 Y/A
11.6 Y/C
262.6 Y/G
107.2 Rating/71.91 QBR

If Ben is giving us that same type of production in 7 years, I'll take it. strike that; I'd be over the moon ecstatic! Even if the following year is his last.

You just proved my point

 

[ZACKB]

Shazier and Timmons start, Williams and Spence are backups. Your point on Spence is mute. He wasn't hurt when we drafted him. JJ may end up having a nice year who knows. I never take a rd 1 player with those injury risks, or injury history...never. Both hips...not a great thing. I would take him in rd 3.

It appears the surgeries were quite successful thus his really good sparq scores. By the way right now listed in the starting spot is a guy (JJ) who at best could be called inconsistent and we have Spence in the inside who has had multiple injuries and surgeries.

 

[FSF]

Shazier and Timmons start, Williams and Spence are backups. Your point on Spence is mute. He wasn't hurt when we drafted him. JJ may end up having a nice year who knows. I never take a rd 1 player with those injury risks, or injury history...never. Both hips...not a great thing. I would take him in rd 3.

Curious -- would you have passed on Troy with his concussion history at USC? (not being smart, just curious if you would have)

I get your point though and it is valid; its part of the risk/reward.....sometimes it works sometimes the injury is overblown.

 

[SteelBuckeye]

You just proved my point

Then I misinterpreted your point. I thought you were saying that because Ben's game is similar to Favre's, he wouldn't be able to play at a high level when he gets close to 40. My apologies if I misinterpreted.

 

[Wingman]

Shazier and Timmons start, Williams and Spence are backups. Your point on Spence is mute. He wasn't hurt when we drafted him. JJ may end up having a nice year who knows. I never take a rd 1 player with those injury risks, or injury history...never. Both hips...not a great thing. I would take him in rd 3.

JJ had a condition that had one program remove him from football, yet he was drafted and that condition was not one that could be corrected by surgery. You may be right regarding the injuries, I do not have enough of a medical background to know how the surgeries he had are likely to affect his play. As an example of surgeries that do not affect play I will list my son as an example of surgeries, his were on his feet. He continued to play high school football stated both as an offensive lineman and as a defensive tackle. Did well enough to be recruited by several colleges and still power lifts presently and has placed in international competitions and won many in the United States.

I would suggest that doctors need to be consulted that are experts in the field of this type of injury. Also due to our needs being great and our present draft position we may not have the where with-all to move up and grab a good talent with out trading away future picks from next year that maybe significantly better than this year and be in a deeper draft.

I don't believe we can afford to eliminate anyone with out lots of good information. Fortunately Owa was in for a visit and likely was able to provide more information for the doctors to review.

The Spence situation is not moot as after the injury the steelers did not release him and offer an injury settlement but continued to pay him and keep him on the team after some really bad injuries. I believe our present defensive coordinator said he will be lucky to walk again or something to that effect. So the steelers continued to risk a roster spot and keep a player that was unavailable for a couple of years due to injury. I do think that was the right thing to do from a moral stand point regardless of how his football playing goes and consider the folks responsible for that to be above the line if you will.

Again you may be correct but I would not eliminate him with out lots of looking.

 

[FSF]

Agreed, but the O better set their sights on scoring 40 every week because the D is going to give up 30. The D was bad last year, it will be worse this year, and it will be bad for some time to come. Even if Tombert drafts some good players it usually takes two or three years until they're any good. To this point there is almost no evidence that they can draft and develop good defensive players.

I would argue this and be very adamant about it.

Even though he flamed out early, Lamar Woodley was a key factor in reaching 2 Super Bowls and winning one as he averaged 11 sacks a year -- but if you tell me I'd get that kind of production like he did from a 2nd round pick, I'd take it.
Timmons, is the guy ever going to get credit?
Heyward is already the vocal leader of the defense and an emerging beast
Gay has been a solid pick
Worilds wasn't the level of his predecessors -- who was? He'd still be the envy of most teams OLB needs for a long time.

Lets give a chance to Thomas, Shazier and Jones who haven't had real season yet

 

[ZACKB]

The Spence situation is moot because we are talking about injuries/conditions at the time of the draft, not once they are on the team. I'm talking about draft time only. Spence wasn't making much, so we kept him around.

I wasn't thrilled with the spinal issue with JJ, but there at least wasn't surgery. Surgery on both hips sounds bad to me. From what I have seen and read, Owa isn't that amazing of a pass rusher any. The injuries and his ability put him in rd 2 to me. Hips are a big part of rushing and especially dropping into coverage. If he has an medical issues with that, then he is way too risky for rd 1.

JJ had a condition that had one program remove him from football, yet he was drafted and that condition was not one that could be corrected by surgery. You may be right regarding the injuries, I do not have enough of a medical background to know how the surgeries he had are likely to affect his play. As an example of surgeries that do not affect play I will list my son as an example of surgeries, his were on his feet. He continued to play high school football stated both as an offensive lineman and as a defensive tackle. Did well enough to be recruited by several colleges and still power lifts presently and has placed in international competitions and won many in the United States.

I would suggest that doctors need to be consulted that are experts in the field of this type of injury. Also due to our needs being great and our present draft position we may not have the where with-all to move up and grab a good talent with out trading away future picks from next year that maybe significantly better than this year and be in a deeper draft.

I don't believe we can afford to eliminate anyone with out lots of good information. Fortunately Owa was in for a visit and likely was able to provide more information for the doctors to review.

The Spence situation is not moot as after the injury the steelers did not release him and offer an injury settlement but continued to pay him and keep him on the team after some really bad injuries. I believe our present defensive coordinator said he will be lucky to walk again or something to that effect. So the steelers continued to risk a roster spot and keep a player that was unavailable for a couple of years due to injury. I do think that was the right thing to do from a moral stand point regardless of how his football playing goes and consider the folks responsible for that to be above the line if you will.

Again you may be correct but I would not eliminate him with out lots of looking.

 

[Slaine]

Nice post tape, but I don"t agree with this:



Not if you look at his sparq scores, not of you look at his 40 time, not if you consider their experience with DE-to-LB conversions over the years. I think Diggy has all the traits - even moreso - than previous DL-to-LB guys like Woodley for instance. Sure he is big and strong and has heavy hands, all of which you want from your LOLB, but DIggy can also move in space. All told, I think he's a perfect fit to play linebacker in our system. Maybe they learned their lesson drafting a college LB in Jones and want to get back to the formula that is tried and tested over the years.

I'm coming round to this way of thinking. Bigger guy in the Woodley mold rather than one of these undersized cover guys that can't get to the QB without trying to run round the field first.