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Chiefs were going to score on every possession. Coach knew it was coming. Kobayashi Maru.
This is exactly the point I was trying to make. Just looking at the odds of making the first down is not enough. You might make the first down, and then be punting 3 plays later. You have to balance the odds of you actually scoring on this drive if you make it, against the possible cost if you don't. The Titans are not explosive, and Baltimore has a good defense. Punt and make them go 80 yards.the problem i have with analytics is that is does not give enough weight to failure. Particularly in football. In baseball and in the world of investing, analytics works because there are so many at bats that you will come out ahead in the long run. Football doesn't always have a long run.
Analytics just looks at the odds of picking up 4th and 1. It doesn't properly factor in the cost of failure. That is what is always changing and analytics mostly ignores that side of the equation.
I would say the risk of failing on 4th and 1 against the Titans is greater than against the Chiefs. Why? Because The Titans offense is not great. They sometimes need help to score so when you give them that help, it's a game changer.
It's different than playing the Chiefs. The CHiefs offense is explosive and you know you have to be on a pace to score a lot. To me, that's why the Texans decision on a fake punt is better than Harbaugh's decision to go for it early in the game.
I believe if the Ravens punt, the whole game is different. The ravens may even win it. Houston was in a different scenario. O'Brien rightly assumed he had to score as many points as possible, so he made the aggressive call. I don't think giving the Chiefs a short field is as big of a mistake and giving the Titans a short field because the Chiefs don't need any help to score.
There's no hiding in the playoffs. They got exposed and we all saw this coming, maybe not against the Titans, but we knew they weren't winning with Lamar.
This is umpossible! Lamar "Bestest QB to play the position and who single handedly revolutionized the QB position" Jackson is unstoppable. He's the best QB, RB and if he could throw it to himself the best WR in the NFL.
This is umpossible! Lamar "Bestest QB to play the position and who single handedly revolutionized the QB position" Jackson is unstoppable. He's the best QB, RB and if he could throw it to himself the best WR in the NFL.