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Going for it on 4th down

Steeltime

Steeltime

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Dan Campbell loves going for it on 4th down, and did so on three occasions, including going for it on 4th and 2 from their own 49-yard line while up by a TD in the 4th quarter. The pass to St. Brown for 20 yards sealed the game for the Lions - they either run the clock down and kick a field goal to make it a two-possession game with almost no time on the clock or, as they did, they score a TD and have a 14-point lead that is impossible to overcome.

So the question is, "Are the Lions simply that good at 4th downs?" Or instead are teams routinely failing to take advantage by using all four downs on offense and instead voluntarily giving up possession to the opposition?

I think it's the latter. For example, the Patriots on Sunday seemingly took a "massive risk" by going for it on 4th and 1 from their own 15-yard line. They convert, drive and score a TD. Are the Patriots a great offense with a great QB? No and no. Professional football players have become used to leaving the field on 4th down since they have been doing so since high school. Defenses are not really prepared to stay on the field to defend the 4th down - just look at how defenders regularly raise their fists to signify it is 4th down and begin their mental celebration. "Yeah, 4th down, we made the stop!"

So when teams go for it on 4th down, the defenders are out of their comfort zone. Offenses that go for it on 4th down appear to regularly score when they convert. I understand the concern that absent a good offensive line, going for it on 4th down seems a risk but a bad offense needs the extra down more than a good offense,, right? Also, Detroit has a great offense but has struggled on defense the past 20 games so failing to convert would seem a huge risk ... but it makes sense. If the defense is questionable, why voluntarily give up possession and put the defense on the field?

Time to incorporate 4th down attempts into the Steelers offense. "Oh but what if they fail and the opposition has a short field!" Okay. I guess we'd rather they drive 85 yards for a TD instead of 60. Sure thing. So let's just keep doing what hasn't worked for six seasons - punt on 4th and 2, and hope for defensive "splash plays." You bet.
 
Vrabel certainly didn’t respect the legendary defense this past Sunday. Going for it on 4th and 1 from the Pats’ 14 yard line early in the game.
Went for it on 4th down 5 times in that game and made 4 of them. He really respects that historic defense.
 
Confluence said:
It'd be much easier to bring this idea from the lab to the field with an OL that was fundamentally sound.
Click to expand...

We can come up with excuses for failure and use those excuses to avoid change.

Then we can continue to hope for a 58-yard Bosworth field goal to nip a terrible team at the last second, squeeze into the 7th playoff spot with the glorious 9-7-1 record, and get obliterated in the 1st round by the 2nd best team in the conference and the 4th or 5th best in the NFL.
 
Steeltime said:
Dan Campbell loves going for it on 4th down, and did so on three occasions, including going for it on 4th and 2 from their own 49-yard line while up by a TD in the 4th quarter. The pass to St. Brown for 20 yards sealed the game for the Lions - they either run the clock down and kick a field goal to make it a two-possession game with almost no time on the clock or, as they did, they score a TD and have a 14-point lead that is impossible to overcome.

So the question is, "Are the Lions simply that good at 4th downs?" Or instead are teams routinely failing to take advantage by using all four downs on offense and instead voluntarily giving up possession to the opposition?

I think it's the latter. For example, the Patriots on Sunday seemingly took a "massive risk" by going for it on 4th and 1 from their own 15-yard line. They convert, drive and score a TD. Are the Patriots a great offense with a great QB? No and no. Professional football players have become used to leaving the field on 4th down since they have been doing so since high school. Defenses are not really prepared to stay on the field to defend the 4th down - just look at how defenders regularly raise their fists to signify it is 4th down and begin their mental celebration. "Yeah, 4th down, we made the stop!"

So when teams go for it on 4th down, the defenders are out of their comfort zone. Offenses that go for it on 4th down appear to regularly score when they convert. I understand the concern that absent a good offensive line, going for it on 4th down seems a risk but a bad offense needs the extra down more than a good offense,, right? Also, Detroit has a great offense but has struggled on defense the past 20 games so failing to convert would seem a huge risk ... but it makes sense. If the defense is questionable, why voluntarily give up possession and put the defense on the field?

Time to incorporate 4th down attempts into the Steelers offense. "Oh but what if they fail and the opposition has a short field!" Okay. I guess we'd rather they drive 85 yards for a TD instead of 60. Sure thing. So let's just keep doing what hasn't worked for six seasons - punt on 4th and 2, and hope for defensive "splash plays." You bet.
Click to expand...

Dan Campbell does this frequently because he has two things that are primary to the go for it mentality

1) Faith in his players
2) Guts, balls, scrappiness whatever ya wanna call it

These are two ingredients Mr. mediocre lacks.

The players in return take on the mindset of the HC be it the aggressive nature of Dan or the the patsy nature of Mike.

Campbell is an aggressive puncher that may get knocked down but will be right back up in your face for more (or biting your kneecap, whatever’s clever)

His players in turn are aggressive, have guts, balls, scrappiness etc:
And more importantly have a coach they know believes in THEM.

None of these things are Mike.

Mike is passive, fearful, timid, predictable as is shown every time the Steelers take the field. Sadly his players have become that way too and it is obvious through his contrived ramblings that he lacks faith in his players as well.

So while I completely agree that the metrics in an offensive league would seem to suggest going for it more frequently is a positive net play our coach lacks the make up to be THAT guy…only see one solution to this problem

Yup, you guessed it…time to move on to a guy that has faith in his players and his players have faith in him….a guy with nerve and guts, a guy that can keep his big eyes open and keep his big mouth shut…let the play do the talking and build that same culture from the 53rd man on up.

Until then happy GHD and we’ll just have to settle for word salads and platitudes instead of meaningful play on the field and a team you can be proud to sport the colors of.
 
steelhurt said:
Vrabel certainly didn’t respect the legendary defense this past Sunday. Going for it on 4th and 1 from the Pats’ 14 yard line early in the game.
Went for it on 4th down 5 times in that game and made 4 of them. He really respects that historic defense.
Click to expand...
The D is unleashing hell already.
 
Steeltime said:
For example, the Patriots on Sunday seemingly took a "massive risk" by going for it on 4th and 1 from their own 15-yard line. They convert, drive and score a TD. Are the Patriots a great offense with a great QB? No and no. Professional football players have become used to leaving the field on 4th down since they have been doing so since high school. Defenses are not really prepared to stay on the field to defend the 4th down - just look at how defenders regularly raise their fists to signify it is 4th down and begin their mental celebration. "Yeah, 4th down, we made the stop!"
Click to expand...
I agree with most of what you said, but there is proportionally much less punting on 4th down at the high school level. For a number of reasons.

I think the proper defensive mindset should be to stop the opponent, and limit their gains to a minimum on every down. With exceptions of course, like if it's 3rd-and-21, it's OK to play zone and give up 10 yards on a checkdown. The bend-but-don't-break philosophy that Tomlin employs (where he hopes that the opponent will make a mistake before driving the length of the field) is outdated and ineffective against good offenses in today's NFL. The Steelers just barely got by New England last week despite being +4 in the turnover margin -- they're not going to get away with that shlt against better teams.
 
We don't live in our fears............wait.

If the Steelers were legitimate contenders, I could see playing it safe, but they aren't.
It won't make much difference if they end up 9-8 or 7-10.
 
"Super Bowl Winning Mister Head Coach Michael Vincent Lombardi Tomlin is stifling the offense so as to not give away his super top secret offensive plays to the opposition to prepare for when the rubber meets the road and we have to win a game to preserve the integrity of that we hold dearly. In this matter and function, it is best to prepare for the best and deliver the worst, which is what we do since we obviously have the intellect below the neck to absorb the quality of play between the ears that our storied franchise has devolved to tell. As such, we are constructing an offense that might raise some eyebrows from those who are not in the know of what constitutes the morality and sportsmanship of the game that we are called upon to play on the field of football where football is played by those with said calling to play football on the field of football. Hamstringing an offense by pursuing an irrelevant amount of yards that would preclude our ability to obtain by other measures then calls upon that same offense, composed by football players on the field of football with an abundance of exuberance and dedication crafted in our lab while overturning rocks and honking ducks, is irrespective of what we are attempting to accomplish as Pittsburgh Steelers."
/Third person Mike Tomlin, probably.
 
topseed said:
I agree with most of what you said, but there is proportionally much less punting on 4th down at the high school level.
Click to expand...

I reffed high school games when younger, then became the announcer for home games for a high school between 2013-2018. I have seen quite a few high school games, probably around 50 (?).

Yes, teams do go for it on 4th down more in high school than college and certainly more than the pros, but most teams punt on 4th and anything more than 3 yards. Kickers in 11th and 12th grades are not the same as when we were kids, topseed - they can freaking boom the ball. I saw a high school kicker hit a field goal from 52 yards. Yeah, big tee, got it, but still. High school punters nowadays can crank 45 yard punts with plenty of hangtime.
 
Fiji Mariner said:
Dan Campbell does this frequently because he has two things that are primary to the go for it mentality

1) Faith in his players
2) Guts, balls, scrappiness whatever ya wanna call it

These are two ingredients Mr. mediocre lacks.

The players in return take on the mindset of the HC be it the aggressive nature of Dan or the the patsy nature of Mike.

Campbell is an aggressive puncher that may get knocked down but will be right back up in your face for more (or biting your kneecap, whatever’s clever)

His players in turn are aggressive, have guts, balls, scrappiness etc:
And more importantly have a coach they know believes in THEM.

None of these things are Mike.

Mike is passive, fearful, timid, predictable as is shown every time the Steelers take the field. Sadly his players have become that way too and it is obvious through his contrived ramblings that he lacks faith in his players as well.

So while I completely agree that the metrics in an offensive league would seem to suggest going for it more frequently is a positive net play our coach lacks the make up to be THAT guy…only see one solution to this problem

Yup, you guessed it…time to move on to a guy that has faith in his players and his players have faith in him….a guy with nerve and guts, a guy that can keep his big eyes open and keep his big mouth shut…let the play do the talking and build that same culture from the 53rd man on up.

Until then happy GHD and we’ll just have to settle for word salads and platitudes instead of meaningful play on the field and a team you can be proud to sport the colors of.
Click to expand...

All of this. What I simply cannot fathom is the undeniable fact that Tomlin's approach for years has failed - mediocre record, no playoffs or get blown out first game of playoffs.

Who the hell would just keep doing the same thing?!? Going for it on 4th down is an easy change, one that can keep defenses guessing, and can get the team fired up. Seriously, is the no losing season garbage that important to Tomlin???
 
Steeltime said:
We can come up with excuses for failure and use those excuses to avoid change.

Then we can continue to hope for a 58-yard Bosworth field goal to nip a terrible team at the last second, squeeze into the 7th playoff spot with the glorious 9-7-1 record, and get obliterated in the 1st round by the 2nd best team in the conference and the 4th or 5th best in the NFL.
Click to expand...
I'll try to be more clear: the teams that are more successful at 4th down converts are those that are fundamentally sound.

The Steelers are not.

Taking more 4th down shots will not a SB bring.
 
Confluence said:
I'll try to be more clear: the teams that are more successful at 4th down converts are those that are fundamentally sound.

The Steelers are not.

Taking more 4th down shots will not a SB bring.
Click to expand...

Here's my reply: We KNOW for an absolute fact, a 100% guarantee, that the current approach will not bring the team a SB ring. So it's not like going for it on 4th down is "risking" the #1 seed or a SB berth.

Yes, I would prefer they go for it on 4th down with Aman Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff, and Jahmyr Gibbs. They don't have those guys so they need to see what they get from Rodgers, Metcalf and Warren.

What do they have to lose? Seriously asking, exactly what would they be "risking"?
 
Steelers aren’t going to do this. The Lions and Pats are well managed, well coached teams. The Steelers are being lead by a clueless bean counter and a D.E.I. who is allowed to suck balls for life and face no consequences. If we’re being honest, they’re probably better off punting on 3rd down.
 
Steeltime said:
Here's my reply: We KNOW for an absolute fact, a 100% guarantee, that the current approach will not bring the team a SB ring. So it's not like going for it on 4th down is "risking" the #1 seed or a SB berth.

Yes, I would prefer they go for it on 4th down with Aman Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff, and Jahmyr Gibbs. They don't have those guys so they need to see what they get from Rodgers, Metcalf and Warren.

What do they have to lose? Seriously asking, exactly what would they be "risking"?
Click to expand...
The Tomlinship
 
Bad Bunny said:
Steelers aren’t going to do this. The Lions and Pats are well managed, well coached teams. The Steelers are being lead by a clueless bean counter and a D.E.I. who is allowed to suck balls for life and face no consequences. If we’re being honest, they’re probably better off punting on 3rd down.
Click to expand...

With the 2005 defense? Sure.

With this defense, led by King No Losing Record? No thanks.
 
There was a 60 Minutes segment many years ago, or maybe it was that HBO show that Bryant Gumbel used to host, covering some high school or college coach that pretty much always went for it on 4th down. I can't remember what the analysis showed, but I do seem recall the conclusion being that teams should go for it more often than they do.
 
Dan has balls and faith in his players, going for it on 4th down. But, how did that work out for him a couple years ago in the NFC championship game? Had he taken the points, Detroit would have faced KC instead of San Fran. Would he do that again, or does that haunt him to this day?
 
oicu8ad said:
Dan has balls and faith in his players, going for it on 4th down. But, how did that work out for him a couple years ago in the NFC championship game? Had he taken the points, Detroit would have faced KC instead of San Fran. Would he do that again, or does that haunt him to this day?
Click to expand...
he said he had no regrets and would do the exact same thing again.

There's an old saying: I would rather die on my feet than to live on my knees. this team has been living on it's knees for the better part of 18 years.

Me personally I would rather go out in a blaze of glory then out like a whimpering little *****..
 
Dan Campbell does not live in his fears.
 
warriors42 said:
he said he had no regrets and would do the exact same thing again.

There's an old saying: I would rather die on my feet than to live on my knees. this team has been living on it's knees for the better part of 18 years.

Me personally I would rather go out in a blaze of glory then out like a whimpering little *****..
Click to expand...

I’d rather be a free man in my grave
Than living as a puppet or a slave

The harder they come
The harder they fall
One and all
 
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