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Goff...? Wentz....? Really...?

deljzc said:
Cleveland has failed not because of their draft choices, but because they've fooled themselves into believing they got their savior QB on the cheap and only they see it. That is a recipe for disaster.
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It is not just drafting a QB early, it is getting the right guy. The other Carr, Harrington, Leinart, Losman, Ponder, Boller, etc. are QBs I don't want.

I think football outsiders did a 20 year analysis and they basically concluded that drafting QBs early is better but the hit rate is still pretty crappy.
 
So which QB do the Rams want? They are playing the NFL PR game to keep interest in the top pick, but they know exactly who they want to draft.
 
fogdoctor said:
It is not just drafting a QB early, it is getting the right guy. The other Carr, Harrington, Leinart, Losman, Ponder, Boller, etc. are QBs I don't want.

I think football outsiders did a 20 year analysis and they basically concluded that drafting QBs early is better but the hit rate is still pretty crappy.
Click to expand...

All draft picks have a chance to fail. So do top-10 WR's, pass rushers, offensive lineman. The list is long for every position of top-10 busts.

For some reason, people remember the QB's but that shouldn't STOP you from taking the most important position on the field as early and as high as possible if the talent is there.

And there is still overwhelming statistical proof that the higher a player is drafted, the more success and production they produce.

Too many people think that if Aaron Rogers dropped in the draft, that's the way to get a QB (see the Browns).

Too many people think that if Joe Flacco could be taken in the middle or round 1, then the answer is to get the small-school kid.

Too many people think that there has to be a Tony Romo or Tom Brady buried in every draft and that's the way to go.

The problem with those scenarios is they are EXTREMELY rare and random in their success rate. I have yet to see statistical evidence that ANY of those methods of trying to procure a QB can be scouted and predicted and planned on.

The best statistical way to get a QB in the draft is to draft in the top-5 or top-10.

Eighteen to Twenty of the opening day starting QB's are going to be top-10 picks. That's a pretty statistical dominance that no other position exhibits (maybe LT comes close). And that's when you consider over the last 12 years, there might be 25-30 top-10 QB picks but there are literally 120 non-Top-10 QB picks in drafts (about 10 others a year).

So picking top-10 you might hit 50%. Drafting anywhere else? You drop to 10%. And that 10% success rate could really come from anywhere. Late 1st round, early 2nd round (common right now), late in the draft (becoming more rare).

Those are the odds as an owner you have to overcome even if your GM and scouting staff are telling you something else.
 
Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams and Jeff Hostetler are Super Bowl winning QB's, so you
don't need elite to win. We should have won one with O'Donnell.
 
21STEELERS21 said:
Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams and Jeff Hostetler are Super Bowl winning QB's, so you
don't need elite to win. We should have won one with O'Donnell.
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Well, you kind of are making a point with Johnson, Dilfer and Hostetler, but Williams and Rypien both had NFL record producing years with the 'Skins in those seasons.

But even taking your numbers into account there... 5 of 27 is not a good ratio for banking on "average" QB play. The Super Bowl is won by teams with elite QB's most of the time...therefore, unless you have an HISTORICALLY GOOD defense, you're not going to win the Super Bowl with average QB play.
 
The bag of attributes that makes up a very good team are many things. If we tried to make a mathematical formula to cover all the variables it would cover the blackboard. I mean just thinking off the top of my head you have:

1. Raw talent
2. Position importance
3. Scheme fit
4. Personality fit
5. Head coaching and game-day decisions
6. Positional coaching and self-improvement
7. Uniformity of system and consistency
8. Luck/momentum/intangibles
9. Injuries and health


You can throw all those factors into a bag, shake it up and come out with your team's performance for that day. And sure, I've seen some teams overcome QB talent with all the other things on the list and what comes out of their bag on game days is pretty damn good.

But QB talent is still really important. It still is much better to have than to not have. It still has the ability to get you wins when other things on that list aren't perfect or even above average.
 
deljzc said:
All draft picks have a chance to fail. So do top-10 WR's, pass rushers, offensive lineman. The list is long for every position of top-10 busts.

For some reason, people remember the QB's but that shouldn't STOP you from taking the most important position on the field as early and as high as possible if the talent is there.

And there is still overwhelming statistical proof that the higher a player is drafted, the more success and production they produce.

Too many people think that if Aaron Rogers dropped in the draft, that's the way to get a QB (see the Browns).

Too many people think that if Joe Flacco could be taken in the middle or round 1, then the answer is to get the small-school kid.

Too many people think that there has to be a Tony Romo or Tom Brady buried in every draft and that's the way to go.

The problem with those scenarios is they are EXTREMELY rare and random in their success rate. I have yet to see statistical evidence that ANY of those methods of trying to procure a QB can be scouted and predicted and planned on.

The best statistical way to get a QB in the draft is to draft in the top-5 or top-10.

Eighteen to Twenty of the opening day starting QB's are going to be top-10 picks. That's a pretty statistical dominance that no other position exhibits (maybe LT comes close). And that's when you consider over the last 12 years, there might be 25-30 top-10 QB picks but there are literally 120 non-Top-10 QB picks in drafts (about 10 others a year).

So picking top-10 you might hit 50%. Drafting anywhere else? You drop to 10%. And that 10% success rate could really come from anywhere. Late 1st round, early 2nd round (common right now), late in the draft (becoming more rare).

Those are the odds as an owner you have to overcome even if your GM and scouting staff are telling you something else.
Click to expand...

I definitely agree there's two type of teams. One with a franchise QB and one looking. And I am all for taking a QB #1 overall and definitely in the first round as most of your top tier QB's are first round picks and many of those top tier guys were #1 overall picks. BUT do you feel Wentz and Goff are worthy of the number 1 pick? I personally feel they are both 10-20 prospects but that is just my opinion.
 
I have Wentz as a 1A prospect (which would make him in the top-6 overall prospects) and I have Goff as a 1B prospect (which puts him top-12 overall).

Again, I have warned against Goff if you are in a cold weather city but I would have not issue pushing a 1B QB prospect up pretty high in the top-5 overall if he fits your coaches/system/weather.
 
FordFairLane said:
I definitely agree there's two type of teams. One with a franchise QB and one looking. And I am all for taking a QB #1 overall and definitely in the first round as most of your top tier QB's are first round picks and many of those top tier guys were #1 overall picks. BUT do you feel Wentz and Goff are worthy of the number 1 pick? I personally feel they are both 10-20 prospects but that is just my opinion.
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Actually there are three types of teams.

1 ) Those who have one.
2 ) Those looking for one
3 ) Those who have a mediocre QB they are paying 20+ Million a year franshice QB type of money!
 
deljzc said:
The best statistical way to get a QB in the draft is to draft in the top-5 or top-10.
Click to expand...

Well, yea drafting any position in the top 10 or top 5 is generally going to get you a better result. The point is getting the first QB off the board is not critical, rather, you need the right guy.

Luck, Bortles (I think), Smith, Manning, Stafford, Ryan, Newton, were the only 1st QBs to come off the board. Of those which ones would you want over Ben, who was 3rd QB off the board and not top 10. Drafting early is great - but not if you draft Joey Harrington..
 
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