This makes the Patriots an extremely rare case in a statistical sense.
In Figure 4 we can see that the 70% range, which is represented by the two thin lines in the middle, covers 75% (25 teams) of all NFL teams. The 95% range is represented by the two thick lines and covers almost all NFL teams except the Patriots and the Rams (the very bottom dot). This indicates “that the Patriots’ margin of victory is quite often better than Vegas betting lines were predicting. The average NFL performance against the spread being so close to zero indicates that generally speaking, the Vegas spreads are very close to the true outcomes. Except in the case of the New England Patriots; their ATS +38 is almost three standard deviations away from the average 0.34. That means the ATS of the Patriots is an extreme outlier in a statistical sense.
End of Dr. Miao Zang’s Study
It should be noted that against the spread and home win loss records, measured earlier, have little relationship to one another. Why is that? Firstly this ATS study is measuring home and away games, effectively doubling the measured data sample. Secondly, the Vegas lines are adjusted higher to give the Patriots’ opponents more points when they are playing at the Patriots’ home field. The New England Patriots’ ability to play especially well at home is a known fact to bettors and Vegas line setters. Once again a different data point leads to the New England Patriots being an extreme outlier—interesting.
To get expert commentary on the against the spread results, I turned to the foremost authority on gambling and sports betting in the USA.
Wayne Allyn Root is the most honored sports gambling prognosticator in the world. He has been selling his services to sports bettors for over twenty-five years.
His books include:
Betting to Win on Sports
The Zen of Gambling: the Ultimate Guide to Risking It All
The King of Vegas’ Guide to Gambling
Read what others have written about Wayne Root.
“Wayne’s the king of handicappers…he’s the Warren Buffett of his world.”—James J. Cramer, CNBC Host of Mad Money
“Wayne Allyn Root is The Face of Las Vegas Gaming…. [Wayne] has built a talent for picking football winners into a TV sports prognosticating empire.”—Las Vegas Sun
“Wayne Allyn Root is perhaps the leading sports handicapper in the country…. Root has made a fortune…with a business that looks and feels like a brokerage house, Vegas-style. It’s Wall Street versus Wayne’s Street!”—CNBC Profile on Wayne Allyn Root
“The Odds King of Las Vegas.”—Bill Griffith, CNBC Host”
“Wayne Allyn Root is an American gambling “legend.”—John O’Reilly, Managing Director Ladbrokes.com, the World’s Largest Legal Bookmaker
“The Benjamin Graham of Gambling.”—Fortune Magazine
My interview with Wayne Allyn Root occurred on January 25, 2012:
O’Leary: Why is it difficult for good teams to consistently beat the spread?
Root: If they [sports books] don’t add more points to an underdog’s line, they can’t get enough people to take that underdog and even out the betting. People are afraid of underdogs, which is why the average NFL team doesn’t win more against the spread, the lines are too high. They [NFL teams] cannot beat the adjusted spreads on a regular basis. That makes underdogs a great bet for the bettor, as they are getting more points than they should. Some lines seem reasonable to both sides and very small lines don’t move very much.
O’Leary: What factors are taken into consideration when setting the spreads?
Root: The line setters argue amongst themselves about strength of defense, a team’s performance on grass versus artificial turf, recent wins, coaching, etc. As a team wins and covers one week, they are adjusted up each week. If the line starts at -7, public perception might bump it up to -8.5.
O’Leary: The Patriots have been beating the Vegas line by an average of 3.5 games per year over the last eleven years. They are +38 games during that span of time. Have you ever seen any team consistently beat the bookies like this?
Root: No, it should be impossible. Not in my lifetime. Maybe back in the 50’s, Packers “and Colts era.
O’Leary: How long have you been picking games for clients? When you say, not in my lifetime, what does that mean?
Root: I have been in this business for over 26 years.
O’Leary: Were you aware that the Patriots had such an amazing record of beating the spreads?
Root: I have lost a lot of money in my life betting against Brady. We knew we were getting beat by the guys in Boston. I knew that when I bet against Brady, I have been beat a lot, but I didn’t know it was that bad.
O’Leary: How is it that you were not aware of these statistics?
Root: Because my business moves too fast, the teams change every year, what they [Patriots] did three years ago has no bearing on my pick next week. You see what I mean, I don’t have any use for ten years of data.
O’Leary: Why is this kind of success against the betting line so hard to believe; why should it be impossible?
Root: Theoretically, odds makers are supposed to take that into account, when a team is beating spreads. If the public is always betting on New England, “the spreads should have been jacked up to counteract that [making spreads even higher] so it’s surprising to hear that it was that high [number of covers], wow, unbelievable. It could be some of the cheating.
O’Leary: Have you ever seen this many covered bets in any other sport?
Root: No, I have not.
O’Leary: When you heard about the Spygate system in 2007, did you think back on all the “bets you lost against the Patriots and say, “That’s how the Patriots were killing us! They were cheating!
Root: I have always been a New York cynical guy but I guess I am being a little naive on this one; if people asked me, “Is this cheating?” I would say, “No it’s not, Brady is just great, Belichick is just great.” But now that I look at the numbers, we’ve proven they have cheated [Spygate incident] and I guess they could be still doing it. Historically we have not seen this [consistently beating spreads] ever.
O’Leary: Do you want to go on the record with your Super Bowl pick this year?
Root: Never in history have we had a Super Bowl team with such a crappy defense [Patriots]. They [Patriots] had the worst defense in football and somehow they went 7-1 at home. The Giants are the pick; they have a much better defense and are getting points. I did the same with the New Orleans Saints over the Indianapolis Colts two years ago and my clients won a lot of money. The better defense usually wins in big postseason games. I am going with the Giants, but now you are making me nervous. (Laughing)
Carry your one post on elsewhere.
