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Could they convert more than 50% of their 2 point converts?

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SteelerSask2

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Suppose you truly believe that you could score 65% or more of your 2 point converts. Wouldn't it kind of force you to consider just going for it every time unless obvious strategy forces you to take the one? It sounds like the first team has largely owned the seven shots or whatever they call it in camp. Or would conventional conservative coaching and fear of losing a game where you dip below 50% and lose trump numbers.
 
5 WIDE 2 pt conversion, *******!!!

Go for it every time!
 
Yes, and the league is moving toward it.
 
Again, play the percentages... always go for it inside the 35 on 4th down and short, or even mid for that matter, always go for two... the rules are stacked in the O's favor
 
Turn out the lights, the nfl is over...........................



Salute the nation
 
Welcome to the 21st Century Todd Haley!
We finally saw a pick/rub route on that TD pass to CJ Goodwin.
 
Maybe the Steelers should bring this coach on board:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ach-who-never-punts-has-another-radical-idea/

Rarely punts. Almost always goes for the onside kick. Now he wants at least three guys touching the ball on any given play, looking to rugby to help him design plays. I wonder how long before a struggling college team gives this guy a chance to bring energy into the program.
 
In my opinion the math supports going for two in almost every situation and it would probably easily bear out in games where you score 4 TD's. The problem is the grinder games where you only get one or two. At 65% success you could still easily not get one with only one or two chances. Then you would have to meet the media after the game as a head coach. Judging by the preseason, no one is going to do it. But I will say if anyone should it is the Steeelrs. Their offense is going to need to produce every point it can.
 
Two Point Conversion Success Rate
Team Two Point Attempts Two Points Made Two Point Percentage
1 Chicago Bears 5 5 100%
2 Minnesota Vikings 4 4 100%
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4 4 100%
4 Buffalo Bills 2 2 100%
5 Arizona Cardinals 5 2 40%
6 Denver Broncos 2 2 100%
7 Baltimore Ravens 4 1 25%
8 Green Bay Packers 3 1 33.3%
9 Miami Dolphins 1 1 100%
10 Detroit Lions 3 1 33.3%
11 Cincinnati Bengals 1 1 100%
12 Carolina Panthers 2 1 50%
13 Jacksonville Jaguars 4 1 25%
14 St. Louis Rams 1 1 100%
15 Atlanta Falcons 2 1 50%
16 Washington Redskins 1 0 0%
17 New York Jets 4 0 0%
18 Philadelphia Eagles 0 0 0%
19 New England Patriots 1 0 0%
20 New York Giants 0 0 0%
21 Cleveland Browns 2 0 0%
22 Dallas Cowboys 0 0 0%
23 Seattle Seahawks 1 0 0%
24 San Diego Chargers 0 0 0%
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 0 0%
26 Indianapolis Colts 3 0 0%
27 San Francisco 49ers 0 0 0%
28 Oakland Raiders 0 0 0%
29 Tennessee Titans 1 0 0%
30 Kansas City Chiefs 2 0 0%
31 New Orleans Saints 1 0 0%
32 Houston Texans 0 0 0%
Based on last years tries one of which was a muffed snap on a kick and Wing tossed a pass to Spaeth we should go for it every time. The percentages are skewed by teams that are in a desperate spot and not good offensively that have poor success rates. Looking at the top teams there are a few that are 100 percent and some that are way below. Based on those numbers it would be good for the steelers to go for it every time. With the kick being moved back it might be worth while to go for it from the kicking formation with Ben as the kicker and Bell as the holder. If the other team lines up with personnel expecting to block a kick they could be very susceptible to a pass play or run.
 
Get benn to practice the "DROP KICK". It really isn't that hard to do. I use to do it all the time. Then line him up..............




Salute the nation
 
Drink IRON City said:
Get benn to practice the "DROP KICK". It really isn't that hard to do. I use to do it all the time. Then line him up..............




Salute the nation
Click to expand...

Might be lots tougher from where it will be placed now for the kicks than when the ball started on the two.
 
Wingman said:
Two Point Conversion Success Rate
Team Two Point Attempts Two Points Made Two Point Percentage
1 Chicago Bears 5 5 100%
2 Minnesota Vikings 4 4 100%
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4 4 100%
4 Buffalo Bills 2 2 100%
5 Arizona Cardinals 5 2 40%
6 Denver Broncos 2 2 100%
7 Baltimore Ravens 4 1 25%
8 Green Bay Packers 3 1 33.3%
9 Miami Dolphins 1 1 100%
10 Detroit Lions 3 1 33.3%
11 Cincinnati Bengals 1 1 100%
12 Carolina Panthers 2 1 50%
13 Jacksonville Jaguars 4 1 25%
14 St. Louis Rams 1 1 100%
15 Atlanta Falcons 2 1 50%
16 Washington Redskins 1 0 0%
17 New York Jets 4 0 0%
18 Philadelphia Eagles 0 0 0%
19 New England Patriots 1 0 0%
20 New York Giants 0 0 0%
21 Cleveland Browns 2 0 0%
22 Dallas Cowboys 0 0 0%
23 Seattle Seahawks 1 0 0%
24 San Diego Chargers 0 0 0%
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 0 0%
26 Indianapolis Colts 3 0 0%
27 San Francisco 49ers 0 0 0%
28 Oakland Raiders 0 0 0%
29 Tennessee Titans 1 0 0%
30 Kansas City Chiefs 2 0 0%
31 New Orleans Saints 1 0 0%
32 Houston Texans 0 0 0%
Based on last years tries one of which was a muffed snap on a kick and Wing tossed a pass to Spaeth we should go for it every time. The percentages are skewed by teams that are in a desperate spot and not good offensively that have poor success rates. Looking at the top teams there are a few that are 100 percent and some that are way below. Based on those numbers it would be good for the steelers to go for it every time. With the kick being moved back it might be worth while to go for it from the kicking formation with Ben as the kicker and Bell as the holder. If the other team lines up with personnel expecting to block a kick they could be very susceptible to a pass play or run.
Click to expand...

What is the ranking there?

0 for 0 is NOT 0%.
 
Drink IRON City said:
Get benn to practice the "DROP KICK". It really isn't that hard to do. I use to do it all the time. Then line him up..............
Click to expand...

Would a drop kick count if it's from the 2?

I know if the defense jumps offside at the 20, the offense can elect to take 1/2 distance to the goal from the 2.
 
Troglodyte said:
What is the ranking there?

0 for 0 is NOT 0%.
Click to expand...

The table is not mine it came from one of the nfl stat sites. I suspect that is all they were able to come up with based on the fact that they made zero 2 point conversions. The thing that interests me is some teams the steelers for one made every attempt including one on a mishandled snap. Based on that I would expect them to get more than 50% of the attempts, it would be interesting to see if the drop kick could count for points from the two as another poster suggested.
 
Troglodyte said:
Would a drop kick count if it's from the 2?

I know if the defense jumps offside at the 20, the offense can elect to take 1/2 distance to the goal from the 2.
Click to expand...

YES. Its not an easy kick though if you get a bad bounce!
 
This is going to be terrible for the game. We are going to start having games decided by the conversion attempts. A team may make 65% over a whole year but you can just as easily go 0-3 in a game.

Right now, 2 point conversions are set plays. Most teams practice a specific 2 point play that they save up for the right situation. That's why 2 pointers are successful at a high rate.

What happens when teams are going for 2 every game, multiple times per game? It's no longer a special play that you have installed. Now it's just a regular play from the 2 yard line.

I'd love to hear the success rate of all 3rd and goal from the 2 situations over a year. I know the steelers aren't exactly automatic with 3 cracks from short distance.
 
Last season the steelers were 4 for 4 and one of the four was a pass to Spaeth by Brad Wing on a snap that was mishandled. That does not mean they will always get in there but if they do so three times a game what was 21 points is now 24. This is likely a good time for us with a questionable kicker and a powerful offense. The games it will suck in will be the ones that are typically 9 to 12 and we are likely to be on the short end of those.
 
Wingman said:
Last season the steelers were 4 for 4 and one of the four was a pass to Spaeth by Brad Wing on a snap that was mishandled. That does not mean they will always get in there but if they do so three times a game what was 21 points is now 24. This is likely a good time for us with a questionable kicker and a powerful offense. The games it will suck in will be the ones that are typically 9 to 12 and we are likely to be on the short end of those.
Click to expand...

As tape said, you should probably, look at more than just the 2pt conversions from last year and I don't dispute his reasoning behind that. Also, the sample size isn't great.

Suppose you looked at the conversion rate for a first down every time the team had less than 2 yards to go (either on 1st-3rd down). You'd still be skewed a little high, I think, because for a 2pt conversion, you don't have time to send the wide receivers long to tempt the D. Still not a great sample size, but way more than 4 times.

At a quick look this morning, it showed about 60% were running plays, but I didn't get a chance to look at conversion rate,
 
ark steel said:
As tape said, you should probably, look at more than just the 2pt conversions from last year and I don't dispute his reasoning behind that. Also, the sample size isn't great.

Suppose you looked at the conversion rate for a first down every time the team had less than 2 yards to go (either on 1st-3rd down). You'd still be skewed a little high, I think, because for a 2pt conversion, you don't have time to send the wide receivers long to tempt the D. Still not a great sample size, but way more than 4 times.

At a quick look this morning, it showed about 60% were running plays, but I didn't get a chance to look at conversion rate,
Click to expand...

I would say no, based on the fact that Steeler red zone scoring has been horrible under The Bruce and Toddster both. Basically ever since Bettis retired.
 
Troglodyte said:
Would a drop kick count if it's from the 2?

I know if the defense jumps offside at the 20, the offense can elect to take 1/2 distance to the goal from the 2.
Click to expand...

Offiside from the 20 is just a 5 yard penalty, not half the distance
 
Looks like out of all of the 1st through 4th downs where they needed 2 yards or less for a 1st the results are:

88 plays with 64 first downs. A rate of 72.7%. About 60% of the plays were runs.

Seems high for a projected 2pt conversion rate and I noted earlier that it would, probably, be skewed. I would have expected it to be skewed by the pass plays, but the success rate of pass plays was almost identical to running plays.
 
ark steel said:
Looks like out of all of the 1st through 4th downs where they needed 2 yards or less for a 1st the results are:

88 plays with 64 first downs. A rate of 72.7%. About 60% of the plays were runs.

Seems high for a projected 2pt conversion rate and I noted earlier that it would, probably, be skewed. I would have expected it to be skewed by the pass plays, but the success rate of pass plays was almost identical to running plays.
Click to expand...

It will probably be hard to find a good stat because it's much easier to get 2 yards at the 50 that 2 yards from the goal.

Stat geeks have taken over baseball and there it makes sense. There are so many games that stats will usually hold true.

Football doesn't have as many games. Individual baseball games are mostly meaningless. A particular loss in football could kill your season. Let's say you can go 65% on conversion over the season, but what if those 35% failures come against the best teams in close games and the 65% come in games the you would have won anyway.

Whenever i hear stat people say how you should go for it more often because it works out statistically, it drives me crazy. Yes, it will work out to a particular % over a season, but football is about key moments. Not every situation has the same weight.

What i see in baseball is that moneyball has proven that you can use statistics to build a team that won't suck. For most teams that's enough to keep fans happy and attendance up. It has yet to prove it can consistently win in the playoffs. In other words, stats go out the window when the chances are limited because you can't duck the top pitchers.
 
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