Texas ****** up that whole conference. They thought they didn't need a conference. They were Texas. It was arrogance but also stupidity as it was obvious the college football was becoming more about conferences and a playoff was looming.
When the Big Ten started their own network, everybody laughed. Then they saw how much money it made and every conference's goal then became getting their own network, which meant expansion.
Texas started the Longhorn network and unlike the Big Ten network where all the schools get the same cut, Texas was pretty much taking it all and the other schools got almost nothing. That is why Texas A&M and Nebraska jumped ship.
Now Texas has been humbled (for now) and if they want a real conference, they need a network where each school profits. That means the as usual, TV will probably be the driving factor in expansion.
That's bad news for Houston. They may end up getting skipped over like Pitt when the Big Ten expanded. The B1G added Rutgers and Maryland instead of Pitt. Why? Because Penn State already delivered TV sets in Pennsylvania. Pitt did not bring anything new.
The key to conference expansion is "Footprint" Basically that means the geographic area covered by the conference and the # of TVs in that area. Pitt did not expand the Big Ten footprint so they were never considered.
Houston may be in that same boat. Texas may not want them either because Houston could possibly become a thorn in their side if they had a major conference to sell to recruits.
Let's look at some teams that may make sense
First, you have to try to get Texas A&M and Nebraska back. Promise them equal cuts. It probably won't work but you have to try. Both schools would probably rather be in the Big 12 for competition but the money of the Big Ten and SEC is hard to turn down.
After they turn you down, go after
BYU
Footprint - Yes, they push footprint into Utah and they do have a national following because of Mormons.
Competition - Yes, they are generally a solid team
Verdict - No Brainer. They should be the top target
Colorado State
Footprint - Yes, they add Colorado area
Competition - Average. Usually a middle tier team
Veridict - Yes, add a key area to footprint and should be able to get them away from Mountain West
Central Florida
Footprint - Yes, they get you into Florida and UCF is actually one of the largest schools in the country
Competition - Yes, the program has come a long way and is now competitive most years
Verdict - Yes, i feel UCF is a no brainer. The bring a lot to the conference
I feel those should be the top 3 choices. They should add 4 teams to get to 14, so we need 1 more
Memphis
Footprint - Yes, brings in Tennessee and a large city
Competition - OK. not great but won't embarrass themselves
Verdict - Maybe
Tulane
Footprint - Maybe, it's possible the Big 12 network would get on TV in New Orleans even without Tulane
Competition - average, might get crushed in Big 12
Verdict - depends if the need Tulane to get on TV in New Orleans area.
Southern Miss
Footprint - Yes, but not many TV sets in Miss
Competition - average - they are usually decent
Verdict - No
Air Force
Footprint - Yes, they bring Colorado into play and have a national following
Competition - Yes, they are usually pretty good
Verdict - Yes, it seems wise to add either Colo State or Air Force to get into Colorado market. You could add both.
South Florida
Footprint - Yes,
Competition - Yes, they have become respectable
Verdict - Yes if you can't get Central Florida. Maybe if you can get UCF. You may want to add both to shore up the Florida area.
Houston
Footprint - No
Competition - Yes
Verdict - Maybe, Probably best team to add in terms of competition but money rules.
SMU - same as Houston but not as good in competition
Verdict - last resort
New Mexico or New Mexico State - No, they both suck and not many TVs in the area to bring in a **** team.
UNLV - the wildcard
Footprint - Yes
Competition - not really
Verdict - Maybe. What if Vegas gets an NFL team and NFL stadium? Now it makes sens to add UNLV and get on TV in Vegas. Not to mention the fans will love making it a road trip.
If i'm the Big 12, i am adding
1 BYU
2 Central Florida
3 Colorado State
4 Houston
The top 3 are all about money. The 4th team is for competition and the fans.