Steelers Salary Cap in 2017 and Resigning Talent
September 25, 2016
G.Stryker
Steelernation.com
This year has been interesting for the Steelers salary cap, and a deviation to what normally occurs this time of the season. Normally, in September, the Steelers carry between $2 - $3M in cap space to sign talent, just in case injuries occur. By giving David DeCastro a new contract, the All-Pro guard only costs $5.27M this season, and freed up some cap space to create the largest below the cap value, I can remember, for a Steelers team during the season.
$6.5 Million *($6,551,309.00 to be exact) is the current under the cap value for the Steelers roster. $3 - $4.5M more than the cap space the Steelers normally carry during the season. If this cap amount is not used, the $6.5M value will be carried over to 2017 and will be added to the Steelers Cap. This is a big deal, since there are a couple talented Steeler players that will be looking to receive elite league contracts, compared to their piers, at their positions next season.
Before we get into individual players projected contracts, I’d like to take a moment to also address the increasing salary cap amounts, and project an estimated increase of the salary cap for next year. Since 2013, there has been a significant increase in NFL Team salary caps from year to year:
Year Salary Cap Increase from Previous year
2013 $123M $2.4M
2014 $133M $10M
2015 $143.28M $10M
2016 $155.27M $12M
2017 $165M - $168M $10M-$13M
Since the salary cap has increased at least $10M for the past 3 seasons, I think $10M is a good conservative amount for the Salary Cap in 2017. I could see it going as high as $15M, but the league seems to like to apply a slower climb rate in salary caps, from year to year. $13M is as high as I’m willing to project, due the trends the NFL increases salary caps for the teams.
Another factor in play for cap space, and that involves dead money. Currently the Steelers have nearly $9.4M in dead money for 2016. In 2017, only Suisham remains on the dead money list with a value of $2.2M. Heath Miller’s $3.2M and Cortez Allen’s $4M are credited in full this year and will not be on the books next year. Nominal amounts from releasing Doran Grant this season, and Dri Archer 2 years ago, complete the $600k dead money amounts for those players. Injuries and releases will occur next season, and will increase the Steelers’ dead money value, but as of today, the dead value will increase the usable cap by $7.2M.
As salaries tend to increase from year to year, it also affects the cap value. Here are some of the most significant cap changes in Steelers players from 2016 to 2017:
Ben Roethlisberger $6M gain
David DeCastro $6M loss
Mike Mitchell $4M loss
LaDarius Green $3.75M loss
Vince Williams $1.3M loss
Justin Gilbert $1.3M loss
Ramon Foster $1.2M loss
Robert Golden $0.7M loss
Ryan Harris $0.6M loss
Mike Pouncey $0.5M loss
Bud Dupree $0.5M Loss
Ryan Shazier $0.4M loss
Stephon Tuitt $0.2M loss
Willie Gay $0.2M loss
Senquez Golson $0.2M loss
Sean Davis $0.2M loss
Rest of team is about $2M loss in salary increases
This is a roster salary increase of $17M for next year
The final factor affects the team’s free agents. Who will the Steelers keep and offer new contracts to, and who will leave? This is something I am projecting, so it is not fact, but I will try my best to determine what decisions need to be made to resign talented players, and let less talented FAs leave. Let’s talk about the elephant in the room, and by elephant, I’m talking about the player that has the second highest cap number on the Steelers’ roster. Lawrence Timmons has been a productive, reliable leader on defense for a decade. Though it took him 3 years to get on the field, once he was there, he rarely came off. Rarely injured, and usually on the field for every snap, Timmons grew into an all star caliber player. Now at the end of his career, his foot speed has slowed, and his snap count percentage has dropped. He is no longer on the sub packages, and I believe this is a trend that will end with him not being resigned next season. Timmons’ cap number this year is a whopping $15M. That money can be well spent on the future and on the talented players that should be retained. Jarvis Jones also was smartly not offered the option to pick up his 5th year. That decision alone saved nearly $8M from next year’s cap. Since the money is not found money, I can’t credit it toward cap space in 2017, but it is a factor as to why he wasn’t optioned. Jarvis’ $2.8M value will come off the books next year if he leaves in free agency. He may resign to a cap friendly deal, and depending on how the rest of his year shapes up, he may earn another contract. Though I don’t see it exceeding $4-$5M due to the value of his play. Cody Wallace is $1.35M, Sharmarko Thomas is $0.79M, Landry Jones is $0.78M, Darryl Richardson $0.6M, Chris Hubbard $0.6M, and Xavier Grimble $0.45M. The departure of these FAs opens up $22.37 in usable cap space, more FAs and rookies will have to be signed to fill departures, but the pool of money has expanded significantly to sign cost effective, productive talent.
So the money totals from all this maneuvering will look like this (in millions):
$22.37 Departing Free Agents cap space
$ 7.20 Usable Dead Money cap gain
$10.00 Conservative Salary Cap increase estimate
$ 6.55 Unused cap money rolled over from 2016 to 2017
$46.12 Total Gain
$17.00 Minus the Roster Salary increases for 2017
$10.00 Minus low cost FAs/rookies/UDFAs to fill out the roster
$19.12 To resign top talent.
So who do you resign and keep in Pittsburgh? I think there are few FAs that could be retained and get big paydays because of it:
Player 2016 Cap 2017 Projected Difference
Antonio Brown $11.9M $8M - $4M
Le’Veon Bell $1.1M $12M $10.9M
Marcus Wheaton $1.8M $6M $4.2M
DeAngelo Williams $1.5M $1.5M $0
Greg Warren $0.7M $0.7M $0
Ross Cockrell $0.6M $2.5M $1.9M
Fitzgerald Toussaint $0.6M $0.6M $0
Ricardo Matthews $0.6M $0.6M $0
David Johnson $0.6M $0.6M $0
Alejandro Villanueva $0.5M $4M $3.5M
LJ Fort $0.5M $0.5M $0
Anthony Chickillo $0.5M $0.5M $0
Chris Boswell $0.5M $1.5M $1M
Roosevelt Nix $0.5M $0.8M $0.3M
Total difference $17.8M
Antonio Brown is getting a top contract next year. I believe his cap number should drop since his signing bonus should be significant, as well as his first year’s salary will be very low. This should drop his cap value next year to create a little more room..
Le’Veon Bell may be franchised next season. The value listed is the estimated franchise value for a running back next season. If he is signed to a contract, his cap number will drop from $12M to around $7M - $8M, creating more room to sign players or hold cap space for emergency signings.
With the return of Antonio Bryant and the emergence of Sammie Coates along with the development of Eli Rogers, Wheaton may be a luxury. If the space is there, a signing may happen, but that extra space may be saved to rework Tuitt and Shazier’s contracts.
Bozwell, Cockrell, and Villanueva all deserve raises on their new contracts, due to their starter status. Cockrell should stay in this range even if he is no longer a starter, since he does have added value and will be able to come in on sub packages, and serve as a valuable backup.
The rest of the players should stay about the same since they are all not starters, if they wish to return.
So overall, the outlook is very good for the Steelers to have the space to sign whoever they want. It is important to note that Omar Khan’s strategy of retaining drafted talent while projecting an increased salary cap is finally beginning to reap rewards financially for the Steelers. This will help to keep the Steelers competing for a Superbowl as Ben finishes his career.
*Player salary cap amounts, player values, and dead money taken from overthecap.com
**Salary cap history for the NFL taken from Wikipedia
September 25, 2016
G.Stryker
Steelernation.com
This year has been interesting for the Steelers salary cap, and a deviation to what normally occurs this time of the season. Normally, in September, the Steelers carry between $2 - $3M in cap space to sign talent, just in case injuries occur. By giving David DeCastro a new contract, the All-Pro guard only costs $5.27M this season, and freed up some cap space to create the largest below the cap value, I can remember, for a Steelers team during the season.
$6.5 Million *($6,551,309.00 to be exact) is the current under the cap value for the Steelers roster. $3 - $4.5M more than the cap space the Steelers normally carry during the season. If this cap amount is not used, the $6.5M value will be carried over to 2017 and will be added to the Steelers Cap. This is a big deal, since there are a couple talented Steeler players that will be looking to receive elite league contracts, compared to their piers, at their positions next season.
Before we get into individual players projected contracts, I’d like to take a moment to also address the increasing salary cap amounts, and project an estimated increase of the salary cap for next year. Since 2013, there has been a significant increase in NFL Team salary caps from year to year:
Year Salary Cap Increase from Previous year
2013 $123M $2.4M
2014 $133M $10M
2015 $143.28M $10M
2016 $155.27M $12M
2017 $165M - $168M $10M-$13M
Since the salary cap has increased at least $10M for the past 3 seasons, I think $10M is a good conservative amount for the Salary Cap in 2017. I could see it going as high as $15M, but the league seems to like to apply a slower climb rate in salary caps, from year to year. $13M is as high as I’m willing to project, due the trends the NFL increases salary caps for the teams.
Another factor in play for cap space, and that involves dead money. Currently the Steelers have nearly $9.4M in dead money for 2016. In 2017, only Suisham remains on the dead money list with a value of $2.2M. Heath Miller’s $3.2M and Cortez Allen’s $4M are credited in full this year and will not be on the books next year. Nominal amounts from releasing Doran Grant this season, and Dri Archer 2 years ago, complete the $600k dead money amounts for those players. Injuries and releases will occur next season, and will increase the Steelers’ dead money value, but as of today, the dead value will increase the usable cap by $7.2M.
As salaries tend to increase from year to year, it also affects the cap value. Here are some of the most significant cap changes in Steelers players from 2016 to 2017:
Ben Roethlisberger $6M gain
David DeCastro $6M loss
Mike Mitchell $4M loss
LaDarius Green $3.75M loss
Vince Williams $1.3M loss
Justin Gilbert $1.3M loss
Ramon Foster $1.2M loss
Robert Golden $0.7M loss
Ryan Harris $0.6M loss
Mike Pouncey $0.5M loss
Bud Dupree $0.5M Loss
Ryan Shazier $0.4M loss
Stephon Tuitt $0.2M loss
Willie Gay $0.2M loss
Senquez Golson $0.2M loss
Sean Davis $0.2M loss
Rest of team is about $2M loss in salary increases
This is a roster salary increase of $17M for next year
The final factor affects the team’s free agents. Who will the Steelers keep and offer new contracts to, and who will leave? This is something I am projecting, so it is not fact, but I will try my best to determine what decisions need to be made to resign talented players, and let less talented FAs leave. Let’s talk about the elephant in the room, and by elephant, I’m talking about the player that has the second highest cap number on the Steelers’ roster. Lawrence Timmons has been a productive, reliable leader on defense for a decade. Though it took him 3 years to get on the field, once he was there, he rarely came off. Rarely injured, and usually on the field for every snap, Timmons grew into an all star caliber player. Now at the end of his career, his foot speed has slowed, and his snap count percentage has dropped. He is no longer on the sub packages, and I believe this is a trend that will end with him not being resigned next season. Timmons’ cap number this year is a whopping $15M. That money can be well spent on the future and on the talented players that should be retained. Jarvis Jones also was smartly not offered the option to pick up his 5th year. That decision alone saved nearly $8M from next year’s cap. Since the money is not found money, I can’t credit it toward cap space in 2017, but it is a factor as to why he wasn’t optioned. Jarvis’ $2.8M value will come off the books next year if he leaves in free agency. He may resign to a cap friendly deal, and depending on how the rest of his year shapes up, he may earn another contract. Though I don’t see it exceeding $4-$5M due to the value of his play. Cody Wallace is $1.35M, Sharmarko Thomas is $0.79M, Landry Jones is $0.78M, Darryl Richardson $0.6M, Chris Hubbard $0.6M, and Xavier Grimble $0.45M. The departure of these FAs opens up $22.37 in usable cap space, more FAs and rookies will have to be signed to fill departures, but the pool of money has expanded significantly to sign cost effective, productive talent.
So the money totals from all this maneuvering will look like this (in millions):
$22.37 Departing Free Agents cap space
$ 7.20 Usable Dead Money cap gain
$10.00 Conservative Salary Cap increase estimate
$ 6.55 Unused cap money rolled over from 2016 to 2017
$46.12 Total Gain
$17.00 Minus the Roster Salary increases for 2017
$10.00 Minus low cost FAs/rookies/UDFAs to fill out the roster
$19.12 To resign top talent.
So who do you resign and keep in Pittsburgh? I think there are few FAs that could be retained and get big paydays because of it:
Player 2016 Cap 2017 Projected Difference
Antonio Brown $11.9M $8M - $4M
Le’Veon Bell $1.1M $12M $10.9M
Marcus Wheaton $1.8M $6M $4.2M
DeAngelo Williams $1.5M $1.5M $0
Greg Warren $0.7M $0.7M $0
Ross Cockrell $0.6M $2.5M $1.9M
Fitzgerald Toussaint $0.6M $0.6M $0
Ricardo Matthews $0.6M $0.6M $0
David Johnson $0.6M $0.6M $0
Alejandro Villanueva $0.5M $4M $3.5M
LJ Fort $0.5M $0.5M $0
Anthony Chickillo $0.5M $0.5M $0
Chris Boswell $0.5M $1.5M $1M
Roosevelt Nix $0.5M $0.8M $0.3M
Total difference $17.8M
Antonio Brown is getting a top contract next year. I believe his cap number should drop since his signing bonus should be significant, as well as his first year’s salary will be very low. This should drop his cap value next year to create a little more room..
Le’Veon Bell may be franchised next season. The value listed is the estimated franchise value for a running back next season. If he is signed to a contract, his cap number will drop from $12M to around $7M - $8M, creating more room to sign players or hold cap space for emergency signings.
With the return of Antonio Bryant and the emergence of Sammie Coates along with the development of Eli Rogers, Wheaton may be a luxury. If the space is there, a signing may happen, but that extra space may be saved to rework Tuitt and Shazier’s contracts.
Bozwell, Cockrell, and Villanueva all deserve raises on their new contracts, due to their starter status. Cockrell should stay in this range even if he is no longer a starter, since he does have added value and will be able to come in on sub packages, and serve as a valuable backup.
The rest of the players should stay about the same since they are all not starters, if they wish to return.
So overall, the outlook is very good for the Steelers to have the space to sign whoever they want. It is important to note that Omar Khan’s strategy of retaining drafted talent while projecting an increased salary cap is finally beginning to reap rewards financially for the Steelers. This will help to keep the Steelers competing for a Superbowl as Ben finishes his career.
*Player salary cap amounts, player values, and dead money taken from overthecap.com
**Salary cap history for the NFL taken from Wikipedia
