2021, the year the window slams shut

[madinsomniac]

Coach I don’t mean to be rude, but I don’t think that you understand the nfl profit model... tv deals arent ratings related... tgey are done by projections years out... the tv deals aren’t going to be for less money, and the league is looking to replace the ridiculous direct tv model for nfl out of market games, which is a huge moneymaker if done right

The only package that isn’t drawing interest is tge Thursday package... every other contract will come with an increase in revenue...

 

[Coach]

Coach I don’t mean to be rude, but I don’t think that you understand the nfl profit model... tv deals arent ratings related... tgey are done by projections years out... the tv deals aren’t going to be for less money, and the league is looking to replace the ridiculous direct tv model for nfl out of market games, which is a huge moneymaker if done right

The only package that isn’t drawing interest is tge Thursday package... every other contract will come with an increase in revenue...

You're not rude. I pointed out revenue is down, the live gate is down and TV ratings are down. Don't assume this won't be part of negations. The decline in ratings, especially with covid-19 ever present is a real issue. It's not like people have the option to do something else these days. So wht are the rating down 7%. Partly from politics.

The NFL remains a huge moneymaker, but the owners aren't stupid. The cap is going to be lower.

 

[madinsomniac]

You're not rude. I pointed out revenue is down, the live gate is down and TV ratings are down. Don't assume this won't be part of negations. The decline in ratings, especially with covid-19 ever present is a real issue. It's not like people have the option to do something else these days. So wht are the rating down 7%. Partly from politics.

The NFL remains a huge moneymaker, but the owners aren't stupid. The cap is going to be lower.

Again when you jump to sportstrac or any other cap site calculating cap space for next year, which is exactly where that -21 million dollar number comes from, they are using the number the nfl released pre season, aka 175 million for next year... that was based on no To very limited gate revenue ... tge nfl will get around 500 million from that... it just depends on where they did their cap Calculation on... so it may stay at 175 million or it may go up

Secondly the new tv deals are close... all are expected to rise slightly excessive Thursday... none are expected to switch networks... tgey wont get less... nobody thinks that...

The question is will the nfl PA ask to move some of that increase from the next four tears to This year...
So instead of dipping to 175 next year then back to 200 million, it would dip to something like 193 million but stay there for five years or slightly rise each year...
Right now as it is every cap calculation is expecting the cap to drop 23 million, from 198 million this year to 175... not from 175 to 152... that isnt even slightly possible... gate revenues snd concessions are just 15% of total revenues....

 

[madinsomniac]

The huge question... and i have a spreadsheet somewhere... is if the cap structure as currently modeled, can Actually work next year... its complicated because this years caps space rolls over to next year... so if the Steelers don't sign anyone by seasons end they will roll 5 million over and that 21 million drops to 16 ish or 15 something...

If you take the total amount of cap space the 32 clubs have, then add what they might roll over this year, then factor in how many roster spots each team has open you see its really unmanageable... now dont get me wrong the eagles and Saints are each so far over the cap its skewering things a bit, but the jets and jags are are even lower than them... the top 5 cap space teams have over 50% of the cap space... its unmanageable

 

[Ike Kelly]

Again when you jump to sportstrac or any other cap site calculating cap space for next year, which is exactly where that -21 million dollar number comes from, they are using the number the nfl released pre season, aka 175 million for next year... that was based on no To very limited gate revenue ... tge nfl will get around 500 million from that... it just depends on where they did their cap Calculation on... so it may stay at 175 million or it may go up

Secondly the new tv deals are close... all are expected to rise slightly excessive Thursday... none are expected to switch networks... tgey wont get less... nobody thinks that...

The question is will the nfl PA ask to move some of that increase from the next four tears to This year...
So instead of dipping to 175 next year then back to 200 million, it would dip to something like 193 million but stay there for five years or slightly rise each year...
Right now as it is every cap calculation is expecting the cap to drop 23 million, from 198 million this year to 175... not from 175 to 152... that isnt even slightly possible... gate revenues snd concessions are just 15% of total revenues....

The huge question... and i have a spreadsheet somewhere... is if the cap structure as currently modeled, can Actually work next year... its complicated because this years caps space rolls over to next year... so if the Steelers don't sign anyone by seasons end they will roll 5 million over and that 21 million drops to 16 ish or 15 something...

If you take the total amount of cap space the 32 clubs have, then add what they might roll over this year, then factor in how many roster spots each team has open you see its really unmanageable... now dont get me wrong the eagles and Saints are each so far over the cap its skewering things a bit, but the jets and jags are are even lower than them... the top 5 cap space teams have over 50% of the cap space... its unmanageable

Great summation Mad,

However, you can’t explain this situation to someone who won’t admit they are analyzing the numbers wrong. Not to mention understanding how the league economics works. As you have explained to OutCoached, as well as several others, the $175 mil cap figure amount was a negotiated at the beginning of the 2020 League year BEFORE the Covid-19 impact on revenue could be solidified. The owners and the NFLPA had no way of knowing what would occur and was following the trend of what was occurring with the other professional leagues (NHL/NBA/MLB) and college basketball when the country started shutting down.

The League and the NFLPA will renegotiate a new cap figure and spread out the loss among several years. Most likely the cap will be what it is now, $198-200 mil. If the league kept the $175 mil cap figure for 2021, 12 clubs would be over the cap and crippled in formulating a complete roster (while only counting the top 51 on the roster). Teams, including GB, KC, NO (the most to lose out of this scenario), TEN, BUF LAR and PIT, all playoff teams, would need to cut veterans with large contracts so as to MEET that cap number. Not to mention not having the ability to sign FA, unless further salary restructures to existing players still on the roster. Having all these veteran FA, will only place Free Agency as a buyers market since the market will be flooded with more players than normal. The NFLPA will never allow that to happen because guaranteed contracts are still not the norm in the NFL. It’s practically a anathema to the owners due to the “life cycle” of a average NFL player, which makes up 65-70% of any roster.

To look at this in the extremes, this is what you would have. JAX will have the largest cap space available, around $77 mil on a $175 mil cap. That’s without resigning any of the players they WANT to keep. NO will be $94 mil over the $175 cap number. Again that’s before they try to resign players they want to keep. That’s 44% of their top 51 rostered player salaries they have to cut. The business model doesn’t work, if that was to occur.

However, please have OutCoached contact all those teams and tell them they have to because he says the cap in 2021 will be $175 mil, period. Maybe he can just tell them to trade players, for draft picks and let the FA walk so they can get comp picks in 2022 as well. Never mind the fact those comp picks will be all 6th and 7th rounders, because half the league won’t be able offer FA large contracts to begin with.


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[Coach]

Here's the current cap situation, And it doesn't include cutting guys on the team to get to even. For anyone with a brain we can not retain out free agents with this cap space. Many will move on. Those who disagree are in for a shock.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/pittsburgh-steelers/

Did I mention we are 1-5 in our last six games? The window slammed shut in January 2021 losing to the a playoff game at home to the Browns. Did I mention the schedule MUCH harder next year? It's over Ike. I did change my mind on something. The Steelers can reload and lose many free agents netting us quite a few comp picks in 2022. This combed with Tomlin coaching out the 2021 will probably = a losing season and higher draft position for our next head coach to start over with. And by cutting the expensive vets who aren't worth their cap #, the Steelers can get back to WINNING playoff games, which incase you have not noticed has not happened since 2016. Five years and counting, no playoff wins and epic season collapses under Tomlin.

 

[deljzc]

I am not worried about the cap as some here are.

There is a lot of "shifting money around" available to the Steelers if they want it to happen. The primary one being: IF Roethlisberger plays next year, they will give him an extension and drastically lower that cap hit. Yes, that again kicks the can down the road, but it fixes a lot of the issues in 2021.

Also the announcement Pouncey is retiring opens up some money as well.

Obviously the biggest issue is just the number of bodies we have under contract and how many roster spots are open and need filled. But it has never been the Steelers Way to fill holes with big free agent signings. We will fill EVERY roster spot with either a 2-3 star free agent (rating from 1-5 stars) in the 28-30 year old range to 2-3 year deals AND expect our draft picks to fill in the gaps.

That will be it. And yes, it's not a very good team. This year's team wasn't very good. Last year's team wasn't very good.

I mean, we have been mediocre (8-10 wins in TALENT LEVEL) for the last half a decade and nothing in the draft or free agency has changed the net gains of talent level on this team. Not when you consider the adverse effects of aging to other players on the team.

You have to really either do great with your cap and bring in a good free agent (one that plays way above expectation/value) or find transcendent players in the draft. We've found GOOD players in the draft, but not sure any of them are good enough to push us into the next tier of winning football. Colbert is like the man using his fingers to plug up the holes in the dam. Every time he plugs up one hole, another one opens up. He never gets ahead. And it could be argued there are more opening up.

 

[SteelerSask2]

Ben largely gets you under. Obviously more must be done because that is only 36 players. I offer a bridge deal with some guarantee to Rudolph to see if he can be a long term starter. I leave him as much as I can to make it as realistic as possible. What a ****** scorched earth mess these ******* left.

 

[Hoot]

What a ****** scorched earth mess these ******* left.

They have managed the cap fairly well year over year, but when you have a Franchise QB, the bill comes due sooner or later. I think they had a plan to deal with Ben's salary but it assumed a certain amount of increase to the cap. COVID impact to the revenue isn't something anyone could predict. Hell, we really don't know what it is either. I still believe the NFLPA and NFL will come up with some sort of plan to mitigate the impact, but it is still going to hurt. There is no way around that.

 

[AggieSteel]

I am not worried about the cap as some here are.

There is a lot of "shifting money around" available to the Steelers if they want it to happen. The primary one being: IF Roethlisberger plays next year, they will give him an extension and drastically lower that cap hit. Yes, that again kicks the can down the road, but it fixes a lot of the issues in 2021.

Also the announcement Pouncey is retiring opens up some money as well.

Obviously the biggest issue is just the number of bodies we have under contract and how many roster spots are open and need filled. But it has never been the Steelers Way to fill holes with big free agent signings. We will fill EVERY roster spot with either a 2-3 star free agent (rating from 1-5 stars) in the 28-30 year old range to 2-3 year deals AND expect our draft picks to fill in the gaps.

That will be it. And yes, it's not a very good team. This year's team wasn't very good. Last year's team wasn't very good.

I mean, we have been mediocre (8-10 wins in TALENT LEVEL) for the last half a decade and nothing in the draft or free agency has changed the net gains of talent level on this team. Not when you consider the adverse effects of aging to other players on the team.

You have to really either do great with your cap and bring in a good free agent (one that plays way above expectation/value) or find transcendent players in the draft. We've found GOOD players in the draft, but not sure any of them are good enough to push us into the next tier of winning football. Colbert is like the man using his fingers to plug up the holes in the dam. Every time he plugs up one hole, another one opens up. He never gets ahead. And it could be argued there are more opening up.

Agreed on almost this entire analysis except the part about this year’s talent being just okay. We have weaknesses on the OL and RB, and some may say at QB, but everywhere else this team is flat out nasty. The wide receivers are incredible, Ben is Ben, defensive line money, linebackers money (pre injuries of course), secondary money. This is an incredibly talented roster maybe top 3-5 in the league in terms of player personnel.


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[Ike Kelly]

Here's the current cap situation, And it doesn't include cutting guys on the team to get to even. For anyone with a brain we can not retain out free agents with this cap space. Many will move on. Those who disagree are in for a shock.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/pittsburgh-steelers/

Did I mention we are 1-5 in our last six games? The window slammed shut in January 2021 losing to the a playoff game at home to the Browns. Did I mention the schedule MUCH harder next year? It's over Ike. I did change my mind on something. The Steelers can reload and lose many free agents netting us quite a few comp picks in 2022. This combed with Tomlin coaching out the 2021 will probably = a losing season and higher draft position for our next head coach to start over with. And by cutting the expensive vets who aren't worth their cap #, the Steelers can get back to WINNING playoff games, which incase you have not noticed has not happened since 2016. Five years and counting, no playoff wins and epic season collapses under Tomlin.

Anyone with a brain understands that the “current” cap situation will not be the actual cap situation. As stated numerous times by those on here and in the media, the League and NFLPA will negotiate a new cap number for the new league year. Just like they did last year.

Yelling the glass is empty!, the glass is empty! When next to the glass is a full bottle to pour from, shows your comprehension ability is at the 5th grade level.

No. I haven’t seen you mentioning much, since you were banned again the aforementioned lack of comprehension.

You’ve changed your mind on comp pics? How can you, with your predilection on all things negative for this franchise? You can’t get large comp pics when there is no cap room for half the teams in the league? It will be a buyers market for the less than half who can. Therefore, any given will be 6-7 rounders. You’ve been yammering about losing seasons for Tomlin for years and he hasn’t had one. “EPIC season collapses! Please. This board already knows you hate all things Tomlin and the front office. If they would have won the game, and then lost to Buffalo, you would be crying about it. Even if they would have won a championship this year, you would have still had something negative to say about the players, coach and front office your agenda panders to.

And before you start your phantom sessions on player evaluations, I will notate right here, I brought attention Mac Jones before you started coattailing him. Although, it’s very doubtful he’s available with pick 24.

Don’t go away mad.......just go away.


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