2016 Draft - Top 50 Overall (No QB's)

[deljzc]

Okay, so I'm done with the positional lists and as always it ends up being around 50 players I have ranked as Round 2 or better players. Obviously that doesn't work, but I'd rather more selected than less. So after pushing all the spreadsheets together and fiddling with rankings (which will inevitably change between now and draft day), here is my current TOP-50 prospects in the 2016 draft:

1A:
1. Jalen Ramsey*, Florida St. (CB/FS)
2. Myles Jack*, UCLA (LB)
3. DeForest Buckner, Oregon (DE/DT)
4. Joey Bosa*, Ohio St. (DE/OLB)
5. Laremy Tunsil*, Mississippi (OT)

1B:
6. Ezekiel Elliott*, Ohio State (RB)
7. Vernon Hargreaves*, Florida (CB)
8. Sheldon Rankins, Louisville (DT)
9. Laquon Treadwell*, Mississippi (WR)
10. Cody Whitehair, Kansas St. (OG/OT)

1C:
11. Ronnie Stanley*, Notre Dame (OT)
12. Josh Doctson, TCU (WR)
13. Jason Spriggs, Indiana (OT)
14. William Jackson, Houston (CB)
15. Hunter Henry*, Arkansas (TE)
16. Shaq Lawson*, Clemson (DE)
17. Jaylon Smith*, Notre Dame (LB)
18. Reggie Ragland, Alabama (LB)
19. Kevin Dodd*, Clemson (DE)
20. Eli Apple*, Ohio St. (CB)
21. Noah Spence*, Eastern Kentucky (DE/OLB)
22. Robert Nkemdiche*, Mississippi (DT)

2A:
23. Taylor Decker, Ohio St. (OT)
24. A'Shawn Robinson, Alabama (DT/NT)
25. Derrick Henry*, Alabama (RB)
26. Jack Conklin*, Michigan St. (OT)
27. Andrew Billings*, Baylor (NT/DT)
28. Will Fuller*, Notre Dame (WR)
29. Karl Joseph, West Virginia (S)
30. Mackensie Alexander*, Clemson (CB)
31. Artie Burns*, Miami (CB)
32. Verson Butler, Louisiana Tech (DT/NT)
33. Corey Coleman*, Baylor (WR)
34. Christian Westerman, Arizona St. (OG)
35. Leonard Floyd*, Georgia (OLB/LB/DE)
36. Darron Lee*, Ohio St. (LB)
37. Emmanuel Ogbah*, Oklahoma St. (DE)

2B:
38. Chris Jones*, Mississippi St. (DE/DT)
39. Shilique Calhoun, Michigan St. (OLB/DE)
40. Xavier Howard*, Baylor (CB)
41. Kyler Fackrell, Utah St. (OLB/DE)
42. Michael Thomas*, Ohio St. (WR)
43. Austin Johnson*, Penn State (DT/NT)
44. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma (WR)
45. Jonathan Bullard, Florida (DE/DT)
46. Ryan Kelly, Alabama (C/OG)
47. Jarran Reed, Alabama (DT)
48. Austin Hooper*, Stanford (TE)
49. Rashard Robinson*, LSU (CB)
50. Adolphos Washington, Ohio St. (DT)

 

[FordFairLane]

Interesting read. I have Jaylon Smith way far down my draft board because of his injury. I read his recheck verifies he's out for 2016 but looks like he should be back for 2017. I feel the very earliest I could feel comfortable taking him is with a third. I would feel 10x better taking him with a 4th or later. I have Laquon Treadwell as a late first round pick and have Corey Coleman as my top rated WR with Josh Doctson just a tic below him. I feel Doctson and Coleman have #1 receiver potential while Treadwell is likely a productive #2 possession receiver. Nothing wrong with that. I think he'd fit nicely in with the Vikings as they have some speed to open up things thing the middle for Treadwell and their QB has no arm so a possession receiver would fair very well in that system.

 

[deljzc]

I don't have any injury information. I'm just grading film. I agree there could be a lot of risers/fallers based on medical review and current injury status.

Tough to know that for sure. I guess I have to start reading up on the rumor websites to get that.

 

[ZACKB]

Looks good, and really great work!. Not big on Xavier Howard. Not very athletic and slow.

 

[Drink IRON City]

thanks deljzk for your time and effort in this and the other post(s). Appreciated by me.



Salute the nation

 

[Coach]

Okay, so I'm done with the positional lists and as always it ends up being around 50 players I have ranked as Round 2 or better players. Obviously that doesn't work, but I'd rather more selected than less. So after pushing all the spreadsheets together and fiddling with rankings (which will inevitably change between now and draft day), here is my current TOP-50 prospects in the 2016 draft:

1A:
1. Jalen Ramsey*, Florida St. (CB/FS)
2. Myles Jack*, UCLA (LB)
3. DeForest Buckner, Oregon (DE/DT)
4. Joey Bosa*, Ohio St. (DE/OLB)
5. Laremy Tunsil*, Mississippi (OT)

1B:
6. Ezekiel Elliott*, Ohio State (RB)
7. Vernon Hargreaves*, Florida (CB)
8. Sheldon Rankins, Louisville (DT)
9. Laquon Treadwell*, Mississippi (WR)
10. Cody Whitehair, Kansas St. (OG/OT)

1C:
11. Ronnie Stanley*, Notre Dame (OT)
12. Josh Doctson, TCU (WR)
13. Jason Spriggs, Indiana (OT) - I think he has a 1st round grade and said so after the senior bowl / combine, but a top 13 non QB prospect is a bit of a reach.
14. William Jackson, Houston (CB)
15. Hunter Henry*, Arkansas (TE) - Very over rated. Might not go in round one
16. Shaq Lawson*, Clemson (DE)
17. Jaylon Smith*, Notre Dame (LB) - Injuries?
18. Reggie Ragland, Alabama (LB)
19. Kevin Dodd*, Clemson (DE)
20. Eli Apple*, Ohio St. (CB)
21. Noah Spence*, Eastern Kentucky (DE/OLB)
22. Robert Nkemdiche*, Mississippi (DT)

2A:
23. Taylor Decker, Ohio St. (OT)
24. A'Shawn Robinson, Alabama (DT/NT)
25. Derrick Henry*, Alabama (RB)
26. Jack Conklin*, Michigan St. (OT)
27. Andrew Billings*, Baylor (NT/DT)
28. Will Fuller*, Notre Dame (WR)
29. Karl Joseph, West Virginia (S)
30. Mackensie Alexander*, Clemson (CB)
31. Artie Burns*, Miami (CB) - A bit of a reach. Might not even be drated in the top 40
32. Verson Butler, Louisiana Tech (DT/NT)
33. Corey Coleman*, Baylor (WR)
34. Christian Westerman, Arizona St. (OG)
35. Leonard Floyd*, Georgia (OLB/LB/DE) - Not a fan. Rail thin.
36. Darron Lee*, Ohio St. (LB) - Good player, but not a need for most teams
37. Emmanuel Ogbah*, Oklahoma St. (DE)

2B:
38. Chris Jones*, Mississippi St. (DE/DT)
39. Shilique Calhoun, Michigan St. (OLB/DE)
40. Xavier Howard*, Baylor (CB)
41. Kyler Fackrell, Utah St. (OLB/DE)
42. Michael Thomas*, Ohio St. (WR)
43. Austin Johnson*, Penn State (DT/NT)
44. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma (WR)
45. Jonathan Bullard, Florida (DE/DT)
46. Ryan Kelly, Alabama (C/OG)
47. Jarran Reed, Alabama (DT)
48. Austin Hooper*, Stanford (TE)
49. Rashard Robinson*, LSU (CB)
50. Adolphos Washington, Ohio St. (DT)

Good work over. My comments on those I disagree with are in blue

 

[FordFairLane]

I don't have any injury information. I'm just grading film. I agree there could be a lot of risers/fallers based on medical review and current injury status.

Tough to know that for sure. I guess I have to start reading up on the rumor websites to get that.

NFL.com had a nice little write up on his recheck. Looks like some teams put him back on their board because of it. I just don't know where everyone will feel comfortable drafting him. He is definitely worth a draft pick and looking at where Lattimore went and where Brandon Thomas went that is my only real litmus on where Smith might fall. To be honest if there's a 1/5 chance he can comeback 90%+ I would take him in the 4th all day.

 

[Harry_BZAC]

So then Karl Joseph isn't really a reach for the Steelers in the first round!

 

[Coach]

So then Karl Joseph isn't really a reach for the Steelers in the first round!

He's an injury red flag right now, and more of a round two type of pick.

 

[deljzc]

Depends on who's on the board when we pick.

I like Joseph. He just has to clear medical and you have to evaluate his ability to last physically in this league (that likely takes a doctors opinion too).

The truth is, I love watching tape of these guys and I can break down tape probably with the best of them. But we are missing THREE vitally important components when we discuss prospects:

1. Mental and psychological evaluation (should be done by a psychologist)
2. Personality/criminal background and general likability (should be done by a private investigator)
3. Health report - short term and long term (should be done by two or more orthopedists/neurologists)

I actually think the tape part is pretty easy. It's those other factors that make or break prospects 50% of the time.

 

[Coach]

Depends on who's on the board when we pick.

I like Joseph. He just has to clear medical and you have to evaluate his ability to last physically in this league (that likely takes a doctors opinion too).

The truth is, I love watching tape of these guys and I can break down tape probably with the best of them. But we are missing THREE vitally important components when we discuss prospects:

1. Mental and psychological evaluation (should be done by a psychologist)
2. Personality/criminal background and general likability (should be done by a private investigator)
3. Health report - short term and long term (should be done by two or more orthopedists/neurologists)

I actually think the tape part is pretty easy It's those other factors that make or break prospects 50% of the time.

I agree the tape can be easy if the prospect is playing decent competition but sometimes the Steelers pick players that do not fit into their scheme. A classic example was the Ziggy Hood pick. He was a 3 technique DT, not a 3-4 END, and too small to play NT!

At some positions, the Wonderlic matters. Actually, a low score often correlates with off the field troubles, so that's another part we usually do not see.

I also think the combine / work out numbers mean something. For safety, I want no slower than 4.6 four, and a 4.4 20 yard shuffle. Height is an asset as are coverage skills. The player has to have some instincts and ball skills. I could care less about the big hitters as they are being flagged and fined for some legal hits these days.

 

[deljzc]

I think a lot of the failure in the draft is because GM's and coaches just overlook the 3 things I mentioned above, or think they are smarter than professionals when it comes to those things.

A 15-minute interview at the combine by the coaches/GM is NOT a mental/psychological/personality evaluation no matter who thinks it is. And it fact, that first impression can HURT a correct evaluation done by a professional.

And likewise, scouts are asked to do much of the legit "private investigative work" into a players' past at college (and sometimes high school) like interview the ball boys and trainers and weight room guys to get information on how these guy treat people and work when they think no one is watching. But scouts just don't have the time or the skill set to do that effectively.

And I swear some teams/GM's/coaches override the medical evaluation when they fall in love with tape on some guys (which is okay in round 4, but not okay in round 1).

Again... the best drafters are those that leave their ego at the door and understand failure is part of the process and the goal is to REDUCE THE ODDS of failure. That means listening to experts about things you aren't really qualified to discuss and concentrating on finding players that fit your system and your locker room with traits that traditional indicate success in the NFL.

 

[Tibs]

If WJIII isn't there in the first I hope we move down. Plenty of talent those 2A and 2B groups.

 

[deljzc]

If WJIII isn't there in the first I hope we move down. Plenty of talent those 2A and 2B groups.

Trade downs are only good if you get good players. Trade downs to get undersized guys like Golson and Archer and I'll pass.

 

[Tibs]

Interesting take on quality of draft pool from Seahawks GM.

Seahawks GM John Schneider admitted the team will be looking to trade down in the draft.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9520/john-schneider

"This is one of those drafts, just from a numbers standpoint, this is the best draft since we’ve been here," Schneider said. "So since 2010, sheer numbers, we have about 130 or 140 guys on our board. [This year], we’re going to have about 200, which is a lot." The Seahawks have not made a pick in the first round since 2012, and they may keep that run going in this year's deep draft. If they keep the No. 26 overall pick, Seattle will likely look to add talent on the offensive or defensive line.

 

[Tibs]

Trade downs are only good if you get good players. Trade downs to get undersized guys like Golson and Archer and I'll pass.

I was referring specifically to the players in your 2A and 2B groups that I'd target rather than reaching for someone who's not a good fit at #25. Even more specifically, I'm thinking of guys like Billings, Burns, Butler, Ogbah, Calhoun. Would rather have two of those guys than one of Rankings, Dodd or Ragland from your #1 Group.

 

[deljzc]

I haven't really been looking at things from a Steelers perspective much.

I think if I was to evaluate what I'd like based on my list of players:

Round 1 (25)

1. Obviously, I'm in agreement with most of the board that William Jackson would be a nice need/talent fit.
2. I have discussed Hunter Henry before and still think he is definitely in play for our pick and would not be against that at all. I think we will miss Heath Miller much more than people think.
3. The offensive line group is 5-deep: Stanley, Spriggs, Whitehair, Decker and Conklin. One of those might slip to pick #25 and I'm actually okay with any of them at that point in the draft.
4. Eli Apple is probably next on my list
5. The big-3 defensive line prospects for us (assuming Rankins is long gone): Robinson, Billings, Butler
6. Reach for a round 2 DB prospect that likely won't be there for us: Joseph, Alexander, Burns

If everyone above is gone we're kind of screwed.

Note the names in BOLD are ones we've visited with.

 

[ZACKB]

I'm all for trading down in rd 1 with Denver and taking a Mackenzie Alexander there. I would also take Calhoun in rd 2, and the best safety available in rd 3. DL/DT in rd 4.

 

[POP]

So then Karl Joseph isn't really a reach for the Steelers in the first round!

WJII, Joseph or Billings all good. No to Apple and Robinson.

 

[steelerscotty]

I don't have any injury information. I'm just grading film. I agree there could be a lot of risers/fallers based on medical review and current injury status.

Tough to know that for sure. I guess I have to start reading up on the rumor websites to get that.

From what I've heard and read, both Jack and Smith had potential long-term issues identified on their medical rechecks.

http://www.Invalid Link - Check SN ...ft-news-concerns-long-term-future-smith-jack/

 

[deljzc]

You wonder based on their draft visits if they think Apple and Jackson are going to be long gone by the time they pick at #25.

I think Apple doesn't even count on their limit because he could be a local visit from OSU.

 

[SteelerFan448]

You wonder based on their draft visits if they think Apple and Jackson are going to be long gone by the time they pick at #25.

I think Apple doesn't even count on their limit because he could be a local visit from OSU.

Ohio State is in their wheelhouse. They are always drafting guys out of that school and I anticipate them to know the Ohio State prospects better than anyone else. I think Jackson is a riser with his size and speed and the same for Apple. Teams seem to want big cornerbacks and I would not be surprised if both are gone.

 

[Scott109]

I think Jackson is a riser with his size and speed and the same for Apple. Teams seem to want big cornerbacks and I would not be surprised if both are gone.

Take it for what it is worth, but in Kiper's latest Mock, he has Apple going to Pittsburgh. He has Jackson as the next DB after Ramsey and before Hargreaves.

 

[ark steel]

Several of the nfl.com mocks have us taking Artie Burns. A couple others have WJIII.

Several have Lynch available at 1.25. I try to get Denver to trade up for that before I take Burns.

 

[nooneuno]

You wonder based on their draft visits if they think Apple and Jackson are going to be long gone by the time they pick at #25.

I think Apple doesn't even count on their limit because he could be a local visit from OSU.

How the heck is OSU a local visit? lol