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2015 Running Back Prospects (Pre Combine)

deljzc

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As I did last year I am hoping to do film study on roughly 250 prospects this draft season. I am slowly getting started and completely my evaluation on about 20 running backs. These are my initial rankings and notes JUST BASED ON FILM and very rough height/weight measurements. As we get through the combine and "draftnik" evaluation I might changes some things. But I kind of like to see how my initial eye views these guys before that all happens.

I'm busy right now so I hope I have time to do all the other positions in time before I'm influenced too much by the media, but that's not looking possible right now.

My initial thoughts on this running back class is it's average, deep and very, very tall/big. About 10 of the top 14 are 6' or taller. Compare that to the 30-40 ranked prospects from 2011-2013 where only Donald Thomas and Le'Veon Bell were over 6'-0". That's a big change and it's hard to compare some of these guys to rough, historical equivalents. Not sure why this trend is happening, if it's a fluke or whether this is the new "normal" college back.

Rankings and a brief comment on each in the next post.

Thanks for reading. Constructive comments/thoughts welcome.
 
1. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin (6010, 207#)

Taller back with long legs and big strides in open field. Decent pad level but takes shots. Doesn't break a ton of tackles but falls forward a lot. Benefitted from very good O-line play. Not sure I see "elite" talent but he's a good solid back that has size to do everything in an offense (catching ability needs checked out). In the mold of a Bell/Forte type if he can become a weapon in the pass game. Round 2

2. Todd Gurley, Georgia (6010, 226#)

Similar to Gordon. Does not look as tall because he's thicker. Not impressed with his pass blocking (especially at his size) and pass route/catching ability: does not look like he takes it seriously yet. Could be selfish and only want to run and has to prove work ethic to be a great all-around back. Talent is there (probably more-so than Gordon). ACL injury clouds evaluation process and must pass medical. Round 2-3

3. Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn (5100,212#)

Lots of running talent here. Shows some “cradle” ability but likes to pop outside a bit too much. Quick and strong with the perfect build for a back. Shows some willingness to block and get his nose dirty. Capable in the pass game. Underrated at this point in the draft season and I expect him to rise a lot before draft day. Looks like a 4.5 runner. 3 lost fumbles in 400 touches. Round 2-3

4. David Cobb, Minnesota (5110, 229#)

Big, strong, physical back that reminds me a lot of Alfred Morris and Arian Foster. Used to bad weather and grinding work load (550 carries the last two seasons for 2800 yards). 10 fumbles and 7 lost in career is a concern. Similar to Morris in that he’s probably best suited in a one-cut running system that doesn’t ask a lot in the pass game from the backs. Definitely has the running ability to turn in a 1500 yard season in the NFL for the right team/system if fumbles don’t derail playing time. His size, feet and balance are that good. Round 3-4

5. Mike Davis, South Carolina (5090, 220#)

Reminds you a lot of Ray Rice on film. Naturally quick in hole and very strong in lower body. Breaks arm tackles. Willing blocker and hand catcher. Good enough in both respects to not be a liability. Check hand size as he lost 6 fumbles in college (on 450 touches). Keep an eye on this guy. I think he’s good. Round 3-4

6. T. J. Yeldon, Alabama (6020, 220#)

Another very big back. Shows a willingness to get his nose dirty on pass blocking. Can hold up to LB’s. Decent runner that’s somewhat shifty in the hole, finds daylight and falls forward. Not explosive and won’t generate a lot more on his own. Don’t think he makes guys miss enough to keep his YPC up. Did not see much in pass game other than small releases to space. Round 4-5

7. Duke Johnson, Miami (5090, 205#)

A bit short but stocky and strong. Well built in seat/thigh. Tough prospect to grade. He's not a great 'cradle' back, but there's enough there to be an effective runner. Too much option/pistol sets and got a lot of yards on wide open cut backs. Shows some affinity to pass catch and might be able to return kicks early. No idea about pass blocking. Looks like a backup/part time player. Round 4-5

8. Jay Ajayi, Boise State (6010, 215#)

Very athletic and inexperienced back. Looks new to football and is just running on instinct. Tall and leggy and goes all over the place to maintain balance. A bit too tall and did not like his pad level. Could have intriguing top-end speed but do not take that to mean good running skills. Little to see in pass blocking. Interview will matter and could be a rising prospect or struggle to “catch up” at next level. Round 4-5

9. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska (5080, 195#)

A bit undersized and doesn't run as violently as I'd like. Looks quick and fast and can exploit good holes but not sure he generates much on his own. Did not see much pass protection on film but can be a threat on underneath routes and dump offs or against LB in coverage. Round 4-5

10. Matt Jones, Florida (6010, 235#)

Reminds me a lot of Yeldon. Very big SEC prospect that can pound between the tackles and on power/counter plays. Doesn’t add much on anything not north/south. A bit of LaGarrett Blount in his game. Still needs work on pass blocking (goes low too often for his size) and pretty much a non-factor in the pass game. Round 5

11. Tevin Coleman, Indiana (6010, 210#)

Looks a lot like Gordon/Gurley but is noticeably a "notch" below them talent-wise. Not as explosive or fast, not as good on footwork. Still, if this is the way RB's are headed (6'+ and versatile) then he fits, but he's not a guy that will "fix" a running game or really raise your offense a notch. Round 5

12. David Johnson, Northern Iowa (6010, 224#)

Decent, small-school back with some nice NFL traits. Hits hole well and hard with good pad level (but that’s difficult sometime to transfer from D-II to NFL). Returns kicks. Not sure I see one thing “special” about him other than NFL size though. James Starks??? Round 5

13. Jeremy Langford, Michigan State (6000, 211#)

A slitherer through the hole with patience more than a violent runner. Tall and noticeably has a forward lean to his running style. Good toughness on contact and doesn’t go down that easy. Nice stiff arm. A lot will come down to pass catching/route running ability. Round 5

14. Malcolm Brown, Texas (6000, 223#)

You want to like him because he runs like it’s 1980. Big, traditional, deep-set tailback that runs predominantly counters, I-formation pulls and pitches. When he gets a head of steam, he’s a violent runner that can knock-out secondary. Nice balance but doesn’t have the stop-start ability or shiftiness to be discussed as a top prospect and doesn’t generate a lot once slowed down in the hole. Round 5-6

15. Javorius Allen, USC (6010, 220#)

Tall one-cut runner that looks too tall for my tastes. Not great pad level and legs look way too exposed in his running style. Can be physical and violent on contact which is a good thing. Not sure he’s a 3-down back at the next level but could suit zone blocking schemes. Round 5-6

16. Josh Robinson*, Miss St. (5090, 215#)

Questionable underclassman draft entrant that is banking on combine/limited film in college. Prototypical stocky size with exceptional lower-body strength and balance. Effective in pass game (28 catches) and keep head up nicely in pass protection. A sleeper candidate that could catch someone’s eye and rise up boards. Check character but not a bad mid-to-late round risk. Round 6

Honorable Mention:

17. Terrence McGee, LSU (5090, 220#)
18. Karlos Williams, FSU (6010, 225#)
 
Love the work that you put in, Del! A lot of mocks seem to have a running back sneak into the bottom of the first. Looks like enough quality depth that the Steelers can find an option later in the draft to pair with a veteran and Bell.
 
Yeah, I'm with you on Mike Davis. He should project well to the NFL. If they Steelers can get him in Rd 4, they should.
 
Great work Del

I haven't gotten into it as deeply as you have but I like Langford, Allen and Varga (after seeing him shift around in the Senior Bowl) the most out of the round 4 and beyond as a sub for Bell.
 
it would be tough to pass on Gordon or Gurley if either lasts til our 2nd.
 
Dont sleep on David Johnson of UNI. I remember him vs. Iowa, i think he can be an intriguing prospect, as far as the later rounds are concerned
 
Whats wrong with the kid we got from Wake, that filled in for Bell when he got hurt ? He showed something when he got on the field.

Im all for shoring up the running back backup position but that position can be filled via free agency/another teams cap casualt ....personally we have other pressing needs, especially on the other side of the ball.
 
Whats wrong with the kid we got from Wake, that filled in for Bell when he got hurt ? He showed something when he got on the field.

Im all for shoring up the running back backup position but that position can be filled via free agency/another teams cap casualt ....personally we have other pressing needs, especially on the other side of the ball.

Its a thread about running backs in the upcoming draft. Not free agency.
 
Great work Deljzc! I think this is a very good running back class. We need a solid #2. I like to find a good back in rounds 4-6. OR pick up a cheap but solid veteran in free agency. The way the NFL is these days, many of the veteran free agent running back get paid like kickers!
 
Gurley is a beast. If the Steelers want him, I'm 100% on board with that. Don't know how that fits into the plan with Bell, but I believe Gurley is the better prospect.

Matt Jones (Florida) is a mystery. He's had great games with Florida in which he looked like the 2nd coming of Marshawn Lynch, and he's had games where he couldn't stay on his feet. He may end up being a good back in the NFL, but I wouldn't take him higher than the 5th round...
 
Thanks Del. I have a quick question, What is a Cradle back?
 
Thanks Del. I have a quick question, What is a Cradle back?

Michael Lombardi made this quote a long time ago in his column and it stuck with me:

“Running back is what I call a “crib position.” This means that the moment your momma takes you from your crib, you have running back skills and instincts.”

I guess when I scout RB's it's easy to tell the guys that just "have it" and were born with that running back gene. When I see that on film, I call him a "cradle" running back since you can tell he's meant to be a running back since the moment he put pads on. Some guys don't have that.
 
Also, just to put my "round grade rankings" into perspective, there are normally about 18-22 running backs drafted each year. That's it. And lately the average pick they are being taken is going down, so there's no reason to think this draft has all these 1st and 2nd round prospect in it. Hell, Draft Scout has 12 running back prospects rated 3-4 round or better. NO WAY does that happen.

I think the 18 guys I listed above are all likely to get drafted and some will drop into the 6th/7th rounds. There will also likely be a couple more guys off the large list of later round guys that will slip into the mix as surprises. Someone will catch someone's eye.

My initial reactions is I don't see Gordon as this sure fire lock at the 1st round. Not with the way the position is being evaluated. He's a nice back, but I don't see transcendent ability anywhere. I think scouts/GM's will agree and think they can get a big back late in this draft that can do a lot of the things Gordon does at half the price/investment. And while Gurley is a better natural runner, he looks lazy on film and disinterested when the play isn't his AND he's coming off ACL surgery. Those are a lot of red flags to me.

In my opinion, for the Steelers this is NOT a draft to force running back at all, not matter how tempting it seams. Wait until round 5 or 6 and just pick the best guy on your board and we should be fine to get a potential backup to Bell that can manage a series or two a game and learn the COMPLETE offense.
 
Thanks Del. I have a quick question, What is a Cradle back?

I just Google'd the term, to get the answer, and all I got was pictures of ladies breast feeding their babies....
 
Agree with Del. Patience should pay off with a great value at RB in round 5 or 6, kind of like Bryant falling into our laps in R4 last year in a draft stocked with good WR prospects.

I'd like Mike Davis in R5. I wouldn't pick him much higher than that though. If Del is right and he goes earlier than that, there will still be plenty to choose from. It doesn't take Adrian Peterson to back up Bell, just a guy that brings good energy for 5 carries per game and isn't a lost cause in pass protection.
 
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My head will split open if we take a RB in round 2.
 
.

My head will split open if we take a RB in round 2.

Ark,

I agree! Fifth or sixth and I would be fine.

Del,

Thank you for putting in the work.

If Davis, Johnson or Langford make it to round five...I am all in. I am very intrigued by Karlos Williams in round six or seven... although he may need to move back to Safety.

.
 
I think of all the prospects for the Steelers, the one that "fits" the most (not the one I like the best) might be Langford. And not just because he goes to Michigan St. just like Bell.

His running style is very similar. He has that same, slow, wait-for-blocks to develop timing in his running style that won't screw up our O-line's timing. He's tough at the point of attack but has enough wiggle to make you hesitate to really go at him and he gets positive yardage a lot. He could easily gain some weight and look very similar to Bell with a helmet on.

The only question on Langford would be his pass catching ability and route running and maybe speed/agility tests. Otherwise he's kind of a poor-man's Le'veon Bell already (at least on stuff between the tackles). He might easily fall to round 5-6 in this class so I wouldn't be unhappy with him in that range.
 
Its a thread about running backs in the upcoming draft. Not free agency.

I know what the thread is about ...my point was why waste a draft pick on a RB when the guy we draft probably wont be as effective as the guy we brought over from the practice squad. We have more pressing needs than backup RB. Id rather focus on CB, OT, S, OLB and TE.
 
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