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10 win playoff scenario

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SteelerSask2

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Don't really think 9-7 will make it though possible. For the purpose of this discussion I will eliminate this weekends game. It isn't that it is irrelevant, its that if they lose they clearly have to win the last two to get to 10 wins and would automatically be in on that scenario by virtue of having 3 of their 6 losses out of conference and hold a tie breaker against virtually everyone.
I think the major game comes the week after against KC. If they won that one they would have piled up a ton of tie breakers. The most dangerous teams being the Ravens who have an easy finishing schedule and the Chargers (Den/SF/ KC) who are in real tough to lose one more conference game and therefore losing all tie breakers. Obviously there are other teams like Buffalo and Miami, but they will almost certainly get to 7 losses (Buffalo plays GB this weekend and Miami has the Pats in NE). The Browns would have to create another playoff hole on the way by beating the Bengals and Ravens.
 
The one thing that can screw playoff races up (and I'm sure the NFL hates it too) is meaningless games for teams that have clinched whatever and don't have anything to play for.

I'd hate to see a scenario where the Steelers need Buff or Mia to lose and GB and NE don't have any reason to beat them.

Best the Steelers win out.
 
9-7 won't get you into the playoffs. The division is so tight that even if 10-6 gets you in you aren't going to be that high a seed.
 
Troglodyte said:
The one thing that can screw playoff races up (and I'm sure the NFL hates it too) is meaningless games for teams that have clinched whatever and don't have anything to play for.

I'd hate to see a scenario where the Steelers need Buff or Mia to lose and GB and NE don't have any reason to beat them.

Best the Steelers win out.
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Mia and Buff play their games this weekend. Neither GB or NE will be rolling over. The only one that happens to is Buff against NE in week 17
 
If we want to make the playoff's, at minimum, than we have to beat the Chiefs and Bengals.

That would give us almost every tiebreaker, and unless SD wins out (unlikely considering their schedule) we would be guaranteed a wild card spot.

If we win on Sunday but split the following 2 weeks- thats where things get hairy. Then we would have to worry about the records of Miami, Houston, SD, and KC.

We win out- Win division
We lose Atl, beat Cin and KC? Wild card spot if SD drops one game
We win Atl and split Cin/KC? Need help from Houston, SD, KC and Miami, Balt, CIN

I would love to win out and get the AFCN crown, but the last 2 games are extremely vital.
 
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I disagree looking at the math. If they win in ATL and beat KC they are all but certainly in. If they beat Atl and lose to KC and beat Cinci then it gets pretty hairy but most likely they are in. If they lose in ATL and win the remaining two games they are certainly in.
 
Playoffs started last weekend. We're 1-0!

I assume in the win vs ATL and split KC/Cin scenario, we already have the tiebreak on Houston.
 
Playoffs???? you poor clueless ******** in your fantasy land......
 
Cope said:
Playoffs started last weekend. We're 1-0!

I assume in the win vs ATL and split KC/Cin scenario, we already have the tiebreak on Houston.
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Head to head works in a single tie situation which rarely happens outside of the division. Usually it becomes a three way tie (normally 9-7) and then conference record becomes important.
 
Steelers win out, doesn't matter who else wins what. We win the division and we're in.

If we lose the ATL game, SD would have to drop one of their final games with us winning our two. That puts us in as the 6th, Cinci would get the 5th if they win their other two, and Balt would be the 2 seed if they win out.

If we lose the ATL game, SD loses one, Cinci loses to Den, and everything from the previous scenario stays the same, we move to the 5th seed, Balt 3rd, SD 6th

If we lose the KC game, everything from the previous stays the same, the out come is exactly the same.

Baltimore controls their destiny much like we do. If they win, they are in. The only thing that would change for them is if we lose, they have a shot at the division. If we both win out, they get in as the 5th and us as the 3rd (we would hold the tie over Indy from our head to head, assuming they lose to Dallas).

Baltimore has the easiest schedule of everyone still in contention for the division or wild card spot. SD has a tough one, so does Cinci (both play Denver, who will be fighting for at least the 2nd seed). NE holds the tie breaker with Den, but will need to keep pace with them. So that 1 and 2 seed race could go down to the wire as well. This year, at least in the AFC, you shouldn't see too many teams resting players unless they start blowing out a team.
 
bigtwnvin said:
Win out then come back here with this playoff dribble.
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If you can't discuss playoff scenarios with 3 weeks left, what's the point of being a fan. This is the time of the year you do this.
 
The Steelers winning the next two weeks basically sets up both Baltimore and San Diego having to win out as SD plays conference games, losing any of them would put them one conference game behind the Steelers who would have a maximum of 4 conference losses in that scenario. Chargers already have four conference losses and the Ravens have five. Its really all about this week and next week. They would most likely put it away in all but the craziest of scenarios.
 
SteelerSask said:
Mia and Buff play their games this weekend. Neither GB or NE will be rolling over. The only one that happens to is Buff against NE in week 17
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Yeah, and unless Denver has a mini collapse, NE should still be battling with them for the 1 seed in that final game against Buff. And Belicheat rarely takes his foot off the gas anyway.
 
Bigappleyinzer said:
If we want to make the playoff's, at minimum, than we have to beat the Chiefs and Bengals.

That would give us almost every tiebreaker, and unless SD wins out (unlikely considering their schedule) we would be guaranteed a wild card spot.

If we win on Sunday but split the following 2 weeks- thats where things get hairy. Then we would have to worry about the records of Miami, Houston, SD, and KC.

We win out- Win division
We lose Atl, beat Cin and KC? Wild card spot if SD drops one game
We win Atl and split Cin/KC? Need help from Houston, SD, KC and Miami, Balt, CIN

I would love to win out and get the AFCN crown, but the last 2 games are extremely vital.
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I suspect that if the Steelers are not able to win out the run for the playoffs will likely not matter. For a team to have any hope of going anywhere they need to be able to win on a consistent basis. I understand your position and they may still make the playoffs but if they are not able to win out they will likely not have the focus and desire to beat the first opponent in the playoffs.
 
hopefully the browns knock off the bungles buy their midget qb has a ****** game anyway
 
Hopefully the jags can play out of their minds and knock off the rats
 
Hey, one game at a time. WIN sunday, then worry about next sunday.....................
Plan a head, then you'd be just like the StEELERS coach.




Salute the nation
 
The loss to the Falcons puts the Steelers in a pretty big hole.

Then they have to play a tough Chiefs team and a Bengals team desperate to make the playoffs. Honestly, that's not looking like a 3 win streak. None of the scenarios I ran got the Steelers into the playoffs. Losing to the Falcons is pretty much a death sentence. Unfortunately, that's kinda the identity this team has given itself this year.

Does ANYBODY really believe this team has a strong shot at beating a soft team on the road? Really?
 
wig said:
The loss to the Falcons puts the Steelers in a pretty big hole.

Then they have to play a tough Chiefs team and a Bengals team desperate to make the playoffs. Honestly, that's not looking like a 3 win streak. None of the scenarios I ran got the Steelers into the playoffs. Losing to the Falcons is pretty much a death sentence. Unfortunately, that's kinda the identity this team has given itself this year.

Does ANYBODY really believe this team has a strong shot at beating a soft team on the road? Really?
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I posted a bunch of different scenarios with losing to the Falcons, and ones losing to the Chiefs on the previous page. Losing to the Falcons is not a death sentence, especially looking at the other qualified teams schedules. Ours is pretty average, Baltimore's is flat out easy, everyone else's (those with a realistic shot) are pretty damn tough.

SD plays Denver at home (Denver is still in a fight for the 1 or 2 seed), Niners away, Chiefs away.
Balt plays Jax at home, Texans away, Clev at home
Miami plays NE away (still in a fight for the 1 or 2 seed), Minn at home, NYJ at home. They need to win out AND get help.
KC plays Oak at home, Pitt away, Chargers at home.
Buff plays GB at home (should eliminate them), Oak away, NE away (good luck Bills)
Browns play Cinci at home, Car away, Balt away

Even if we lose the Atl game, if we win our other two, Clev wins out, Balt wins their other two, SD wins loses to Den, we'd be the 5th seed, Balt the 6th, Clev 4th with the division title... But lets remember they just made a QB change with three games left in the season. Switch that up and have Balt win out, Clev wins their other two, we lose to Atl but win our last two, we stay the 5th, put Balt at 4, and KC/SD gets in as the 6th (whoever wins the final game). And if SD manages to win out, but we drop the Atl game and win the other two, just swap us to the 6th and SD to 5th.

There are more scenarios where we make it dropping the Atl game than you think. It's not even close to a death sentence.
 
insaniti said:
I posted a bunch of different scenarios with losing to the Falcons, and ones losing to the Chiefs on the previous page. Losing to the Falcons is not a death sentence, especially looking at the other qualified teams schedules. Ours is pretty average, Baltimore's is flat out easy, everyone else's (those with a realistic shot) are pretty damn tough.

SD plays Denver at home (Denver is still in a fight for the 1 or 2 seed), Niners away, Chiefs away.
Balt plays Jax at home, Texans away, Clev at home
Miami plays NE away (still in a fight for the 1 or 2 seed), Minn at home, NYJ at home. They need to win out AND get help.
KC plays Oak at home, Pitt away, Chargers at home.
Buff plays GB at home (should eliminate them), Oak away, NE away (good luck Bills)
Browns play Cinci at home, Car away, Balt away

Even if we lose the Atl game, if we win our other two, Clev wins out, Balt wins their other two, SD wins loses to Den, we'd be the 5th seed, Balt the 6th, Clev 4th with the division title... But lets remember they just made a QB change with three games left in the season. Switch that up and have Balt win out, Clev wins their other two, we lose to Atl but win our last two, we stay the 5th, put Balt at 4, and KC/SD gets in as the 6th (whoever wins the final game). And if SD manages to win out, but we drop the Atl game and win the other two, just swap us to the 6th and SD to 5th.

There are more scenarios where we make it dropping the Atl game than you think. It's not even close to a death sentence.
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Yep, as long as the Steelers win their last two, a Falcons loss won't mean much. However, I just don't have much faith in this team stringing multiple wins together. They got 3 in a row midseason and seem to be back to their usual win, loss, win, loss routine. And, unless KC gets one this week, I can almost guarantee one of their WRs will finally get their first TD catch of the season against the Steelers.
 
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