So here are the scenarios that can happen without ties… there are 32 in total now, I believe.
a) full disclosure, i am drunkish, so while Im 100% certain these are right, Im also 101% certain you should always double check a buzzed guy's work.....
For us to get the 2 seed if we win and the bills lose, we are the 2 seed. If we both win or both lose or if they win and we lose then we are the three seed…
That means for any 2 seed scenarios, the dolphins have to finish 11-5 and the Browns have to finish 10-4
There are therefore 8 scenarios where we get the 2 seed
So in the 2 seed scenarios:
Miami 11-5 Beats Buffalo 12-4
Steelers 13-3 Beats Cleveland 10-6
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5, and The Ravens 11-5 all win:
Cleveland is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Colts
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5 win
And the Ravens lose
Cleveland is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Ravens
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Colts
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And the Colts lose
Indy is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Indy 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And Tennessee loses
Tennessee is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Colts Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If The Ravens 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Titans lose
Indy is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If the Colts 11-5 win
And the Titans and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Ravens
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Titans
4 Indy Vs 5 Miami
-If the Titans, Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Browns
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
In 5 scenarios Indy misses, 2 Cleveland does, and one the titans miss
We play the browns in 5 Scenarios, The ravens in 2, and the Titans in 1
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In the first set of three seed scenarios we both lose:
Miami 11-5 Beats Buffalo 12-4
Cleveland 11-5 Beats the Steelers 12-4
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5, and The Ravens 11-5 all win:
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5 win
And the Ravens lose
The Ravens are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Colts
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And the Colts lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Indy 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And Tennessee loses
Tennessee is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Colts Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If The Ravens 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Titans lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If the Colts 11-5 win
And the Titans and Ravens lose
Ravens are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Titans
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Indy Vs 5 Miami
-If the Titans, Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
In 5 scenarios Indy misses, 2 Baltimore does, and one the titans miss
We play the browns in 4 Scenarios, and The ravens in 4
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In the second set of three seed scenarios both The Steelers and Buffalo win:
Buffalo 13-3 Beats Miami 10-4
Steelers 13-3 Beats the Browns 10-4
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5, and The Ravens 11-5 all win:
Cleveland is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Colts
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5 win
And the Ravens lose
The Browns are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Colts
-If Tennessee 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And the Colts lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If Indy 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And Tennessee loses
Cleveland is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Tennessee
4 Colts Vs 5 Ravens
-If Tennessee 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If The Ravens 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Titans lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If the Colts 11-5 win
And the Titans and Ravens lose
The Browns are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Indy Vs 5 Tennessee
-If the Titans, Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Browns
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
In 4 scenarios Indy misses, 4 Cleveland does
We play Miami in 4 Scenarios, and The ravens in 2, The titans in 1 and the colts in 1
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In the third and final set of three seed scenarios The Steelers lose and The Bills win:
Buffalo 13-3 Beats Miami 10-4
Cleveland 11-5 Beats the Steelers 12-4
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5, and The Ravens 11-5 all win:
Miami is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Colts
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5 win
And the Ravens lose
The Ravens are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Colts
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Cleveland
-If Tennessee 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And the Colts lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If Indy 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And Tennessee loses
Ravens are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Tennessee
3 Steelers Vs 6 Cleveland
4 Colts Vs 5 Ravens
-If Tennessee 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Cleveland
-If The Ravens 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Titans lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If the Colts 11-5 win
And the Titans and Ravens lose
Baltimore is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Tennesee
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Cleveland
-If the Titans, Colts and Ravens lose
The colts are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Cleveland
In 4 scenarios Indy misses, 3 The Ravens do, and 1 Miami does
We play Miami in 2 Scenarios, and The Browns in 4, The titans in 1 and the colts in 1
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Teams most likely to miss the playoffs in these 32 scenarios:
Indianapolis Colts 18 -56.3%
Cleveland Browns 6 -18.8%
Baltimore Ravens 5 -15.6%
Tennessee Titans 2 -16.3%
Miami Dolphins 1 -3.1%
Teams we are most likely to play:
Cleveland Browns 13 -40.6%
Baltimore Ravens 8 -25.0%
Miami Dolphins 6 -18.8%
Tennessee Titans 3 -9.4%
Indianapolis Colts 2 -6.3%
a) full disclosure, i am drunkish, so while Im 100% certain these are right, Im also 101% certain you should always double check a buzzed guy's work.....
For us to get the 2 seed if we win and the bills lose, we are the 2 seed. If we both win or both lose or if they win and we lose then we are the three seed…
That means for any 2 seed scenarios, the dolphins have to finish 11-5 and the Browns have to finish 10-4
There are therefore 8 scenarios where we get the 2 seed
So in the 2 seed scenarios:
Miami 11-5 Beats Buffalo 12-4
Steelers 13-3 Beats Cleveland 10-6
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5, and The Ravens 11-5 all win:
Cleveland is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Colts
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5 win
And the Ravens lose
Cleveland is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Ravens
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Colts
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And the Colts lose
Indy is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Indy 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And Tennessee loses
Tennessee is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Colts Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If The Ravens 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Titans lose
Indy is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If the Colts 11-5 win
And the Titans and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Ravens
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Titans
4 Indy Vs 5 Miami
-If the Titans, Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Steelers Vs 7 Browns
3 Buffalo Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
In 5 scenarios Indy misses, 2 Cleveland does, and one the titans miss
We play the browns in 5 Scenarios, The ravens in 2, and the Titans in 1
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In the first set of three seed scenarios we both lose:
Miami 11-5 Beats Buffalo 12-4
Cleveland 11-5 Beats the Steelers 12-4
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5, and The Ravens 11-5 all win:
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5 win
And the Ravens lose
The Ravens are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Colts
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And the Colts lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If Indy 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And Tennessee loses
Tennessee is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Colts Vs 5 Miami
-If Tennessee 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If The Ravens 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Titans lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If the Colts 11-5 win
And the Titans and Ravens lose
Ravens are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Titans
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Indy Vs 5 Miami
-If the Titans, Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
In 5 scenarios Indy misses, 2 Baltimore does, and one the titans miss
We play the browns in 4 Scenarios, and The ravens in 4
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In the second set of three seed scenarios both The Steelers and Buffalo win:
Buffalo 13-3 Beats Miami 10-4
Steelers 13-3 Beats the Browns 10-4
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5, and The Ravens 11-5 all win:
Cleveland is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Colts
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5 win
And the Ravens lose
The Browns are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Colts
-If Tennessee 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And the Colts lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If Indy 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And Tennessee loses
Cleveland is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Tennessee
4 Colts Vs 5 Ravens
-If Tennessee 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
-If The Ravens 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Titans lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Cleveland
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If the Colts 11-5 win
And the Titans and Ravens lose
The Browns are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Indy Vs 5 Tennessee
-If the Titans, Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Browns
3 Steelers Vs 6 Ravens
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Miami
In 4 scenarios Indy misses, 4 Cleveland does
We play Miami in 4 Scenarios, and The ravens in 2, The titans in 1 and the colts in 1
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In the third and final set of three seed scenarios The Steelers lose and The Bills win:
Buffalo 13-3 Beats Miami 10-4
Cleveland 11-5 Beats the Steelers 12-4
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5, and The Ravens 11-5 all win:
Miami is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Colts
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If Tennessee 11-5, Indy 11-5 win
And the Ravens lose
The Ravens are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Colts
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Cleveland
-If Tennessee 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And the Colts lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If Indy 11-5, Ravens 11-5 win
And Tennessee loses
Ravens are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Tennessee
3 Steelers Vs 6 Cleveland
4 Colts Vs 5 Ravens
-If Tennessee 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Ravens lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Cleveland
-If The Ravens 11-5 wins
And the Colts and Titans lose
Indy is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Browns
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Ravens
-If the Colts 11-5 win
And the Titans and Ravens lose
Baltimore is out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Miami
3 Steelers Vs 6 Tennesee
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Cleveland
-If the Titans, Colts and Ravens lose
The colts are out
2 Buffalo Vs 7 Ravens
3 Steelers Vs 6 Miami
4 Tennessee Vs 5 Cleveland
In 4 scenarios Indy misses, 3 The Ravens do, and 1 Miami does
We play Miami in 2 Scenarios, and The Browns in 4, The titans in 1 and the colts in 1
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Teams most likely to miss the playoffs in these 32 scenarios:
Indianapolis Colts 18 -56.3%
Cleveland Browns 6 -18.8%
Baltimore Ravens 5 -15.6%
Tennessee Titans 2 -16.3%
Miami Dolphins 1 -3.1%
Teams we are most likely to play:
Cleveland Browns 13 -40.6%
Baltimore Ravens 8 -25.0%
Miami Dolphins 6 -18.8%
Tennessee Titans 3 -9.4%
Indianapolis Colts 2 -6.3%