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Breaking down how tiebreakers work

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madinsomniac

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NFL playoff selection and tiebreaking procedures are often misunderstood.

Here is a breakdown of how they work (done by mostly sober me, so feel free to factcheck) (also this will be multiple posts for readability)


First the process:
1st rule is that the divisional winners are selected first. These are selected using “winning percentage” as the primary ranking tool. Ties are broken using the divisional tiebreakers
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Once all four divisional winners for a conference have been selected, they are placed in order (1-4) using winning percentage and cross divisional tiebreaking procedures.
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To select the wildcard teams, the division winners are removed from the process, then using winning percentage and interdivisional tiebreakers, divisional ties are broken first, so that only the top 4 teams remaining in each division are actually looked at for each individual wild card spot. Ties are broken for these teams through the cross divisional tiebreakers. The winner of this procedure becomes the top wildcard (5)
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Once the first wild card spot is filled, that team is removed from the process and it starts all over again and continues until all wildcards are filled (6, then 7)
 
How winning percentage works (This is very important for most of the early tiebreakers too)

Winning percentage isn’t the same thing as wins. It ensures that records can be compared despite playing different numbers of games or tying teams during the season.

The basic equation goes like this
1. First you multiply the teams wins by one (W*1)
2. Then you multiply the Ties by one half (T*0.5)
3. Then you add those together (w*1)+(T*0.5). This gives you the equivalent wins (EW) for a team, and yes two ties are as good as one win in this system.
Ie: a 12-2-2 team would have the equivalent wins of 13 [ (12*1)+(2*0.5)=13 ]
a 9-4-3 team would have the equivalent wins of 10.5 [ (9*1)+(3*0.5)=10.5 ]
4. Then you calculate the total number of games played (GP) by adding the wins, Ties, and losses together ((w*1)+(T*1)*(L*1))
This is pretty straightforward… the 12-2-2 team from above played 16 games (12+2+2=16), So did the 9-4-3 team (9+4+3= 16).
5. Finally you divide the equivalent wins by the total games played to get a winning percentage (W%)= EW / GP
So that 12-2-2 team from above had a .8125 winning percentage, the exact same as a 13-3 team.
The 9-4-3 team had a winning percentage of .65625, which would beat out a 10-6 team (.625) despite having one fewer win

The real advantage to this method is that it allows different numbers of games played to be compared if a game were to be unavoidably cancelled…

So lets pretend that going into week 17, both us and KC have 12-2 records, one of us plays first and the other gets their game cancelled due to covid, and it will not be made up…
The team with the 13-2 record has a .867 winning percentage and isn’t playing anymore
If the other team wins, they leapfrog them to 14-2 (.875)
If they lose they drop to 13-3 (.813)
If they Tie, they still drop to 13-2-1 (.844) and fall behind the team that didn’t play

So as soon as the season is done, winning percentage are calculated for every single team in the NFL for both Playoff and draft purposes…

One note here, when trying to determine clinching scenarios, you add the maximum number of games left to be played in the tiebreaking scenario to the leading team’s loss column and the maximum number of games left to be played to the other teams win column when doing this math

So if you are dealing with conference games, and the team ahead has 3 left , and the trailing team has 2, you would add 3 losses to the first team and 2 wins to the second . if the math for the first team still comes out ahead, then the tiebreaker is clinched…
 
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Now on to ties:
Tiebreakers are applied whenever two or more teams have the same winning percentage
There are two types of tiebreakers; one set is for interdivisional ties and the other set is for cross divisional ties. (So if the Ravens, the Browns, and the Steelers tied, the interdivisional tiebreakers would be the set used, but if the Steelers, Chiefs, and Bills tied, the cross-divisional set would be used.

Each set of tiebreakers has two different subcategories of tiebreakers in them one for just 2 teams tied, and the other for 3 or more teams. (note that right now the interdivisional “2 team” and “3 or more team” rules are exactly the same. That isn’t always the case though)


Interdivisional (division) Tiebreakers for 2 and 3 or more clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss
 
Here is a synopsis of each for inter divisional tiebreakers (note that cross division can be different on some)
Step 1, head to head… Pretty self explanatory. Winning percentage is calculated between the two clubs or amongst all three. In divisional play this usually means two games between each club unless one is cancelled.
*Right now against Cleveland we hold a 1-0 advantage here. If we win the second games or if the last game were cancelled, the Browns could not beat us in any tiebreaker. The best they can hope for is to tie us here. Its also why the ratbirds were knocked out of the divisional title when they lost to us… they are 0-2 vs us and no other tiebreaker mattered, and they could no longer beat us outright on winning percentage…
Step 2 Best win/loss within the division… calculate the winning percentage for divisional games only. Usually 6 games…
*So as an example, we have currently played 4 AFC north games, the browns have played 5… we are 4-0 and they are 2-3. With only one left for them and two for us, it ensures we beat them here. We could finish no worse than 4-2, at best they can only get to 3-3. Since in the head to head tiebreaker they can do no better than tie us, as soon as they can no longer beat us in straight up winning percentage, they are eliminated… that means them winning out and us losing out…..

Step 3 Best win loss in common games
– under the current format the only uncommon opponents for division teams are the 2 games you play vs the other team in this tiebreaker, and the two conference games you get from the two conference divisions your division aren’t playing this season… all the nfc teams and that other division games are common, so there are lots in this category.
***Some people try to argue that games played vs the other team in this scenario should count, since in some references its common games, not common opponents, but literally there is no way for it to get past step one without those games being split so it does not matter
*For example, this year the Browns and steelers common Opponents: (not that it matters anymore this year, lol)
Cleveland - Steelers
-Washington - W - L
-Dallas - W - W
-Giants - ? - W
-Philly - W - W
-Cinci 1 -- W - W
-Cincy 2 -- W - ?
-Ravens 1 -- L - W
-Ravens 2 -- L - W
-Indy -- W - ?
-Tennessee -- W - W
-Houston -- W - W
-Jacksonville -- W - W

Uncommon Opponents
-Steelers -- W - DNP
- Steelers -- ? - DNP
-Vegas -- L - DNP
-Jets -- ? - DNP

-Browns -- DNP - W
-Browns -- DNP - ?
-Bills -- DNP - L
-Broncos -- DNP - W

So right now the common opponent win percentage for the steelers stands at 9-1 (.900) (Washington)
Its at 9-2 (.818) for the Browns (The ravens twice) The bills game loss and our victory over them are irrelevant here for us, as is their Vegas loss and their loss to us… they all matter elsewhere, but not here
If we lost out our common opponents losses could reach 9-3(.750)(Cinci and Indy), the browns game wouldn’t matter since the browns cannot play with themselves in a way that the NFL counts, lol… so had we not clinched the division wins department, this would have still been in play. The Browns could theoretically reach 4 common losses if they lost to the Giants, but the Jets or the game vs us wouldn’t count.


Step 4 Best win loss among the conference games.
So in our case, all the AFC teams
This is usually one of the easier tiebreakers… Barring cancellations, every team plays 12 conference games. We are currently 8-1. That is easily the second best record in the Nfl behind The chiefs, who are 10-1… nobody in the division has fewer than 4 losses… since we have 3 games left, all vs the AFC, the worse we could finish here is 8-4… if the browns and us were to tie every step above this (and again the browns were eliminated step2) the best they could hope for is to tie us here
 
Step 5 Strength of victory
This is where people start thinking it gets complicated. It really isn’t for the season ending math. Figuring out clinchers can be iffy… Strength of victory is the winning percentage of the teams a team beat. So the Browns beating the Jets gives them no advantage here. It actually reduces their number.
Cleveland-
So these are the teams Cleveland lost to, and thus they are not factored in at all:
-Vegas________7-7 -- L
-Ravens 1______8-5 -- L
-Ravens 2______8-5 -- L
-Steelers______11-2 -- L

These are the teams they beat: They are a combined 41-73-3 (0.380)
-Washington___6-7 --- W
-Dallas________4-9 --- W
-Philly_______4-8-1 -- W
-Cinci 1 _____2-10-1 -- W
-Cincy 2 _____2-10-1 -- W
-Indy__________9-4 -- W
-Tennessee ____9-4 -- W
-Houston______4-9 -- W
-Jacksonville___1-12 -- W

These are the teams they have yet to play They are a combined 16-23 (0.410)
-Steelers______11-2 -- ?
-Jets_________0-13 -- ?
-Giants _______5-8 --- ?

Steelers
These are the teams Pittsburgh lost to, and thus they are not factored in at all:
-Washington 6-7 - L
-Bills 10-3 -- L

These are the teams they beat: They are a combined 59-82-2 (0.420)
-Dallas 4-9 - W
-Giants 5-8 - W
-Philly 4-8-1 - W
-Cinci 1 2-10-1 -- W
-Ravens 1 8-5 -- W
-Ravens 2 8-5 -- W
-Tennessee 9-4 -- W
-Houston 4-9 -- W
-Jacksonville 1-12 -- W
-Browns 9-4 -- W
-Broncos 5-8 -- W

These are the teams the Steelers have yet to play They are a combined 20-18-1 (0.526)
-Cincy 2 2-10-1 -- ?
-Browns 9-4 -- ?
-Indy 9-4 -- ?

Now determining the scenario clincher for this can get complex.
First of all you have to realize a few things:
- that all the teams you beat will be taking wins and losses through the rest of the season.
-And that some teams play each other so that will ensure a win for one and a loss for the other,
-Teams that you beat twice count twice in the math ( so us beating the ravens twice gives us 2 separate 8 wins and 5 losses
-and finally, that teams that all the teams competing for this step of the tiebreaker have beaten simply wont matter because whatever they do is reflected equally to every team
So this week Baltimore plays Jacksonville. We would want Baltimore to win this step because they count for two of our victories. Them losing adds two losses to our column, while them winning adds two wins, while Jacksonville adds only one of each… but if Cleveland was still worried about tiebreakers, they would want Jacksonville to win, since they lost twice to the ravens and for Cleveland in this step, it basically doesn’t matter what they do, while they beat Jacksonville…
On Saturday, we will be pulling for Denver (who we beat) over the bills (whom we lost to) … The browns don’t get their numbers adjusted in any way from that game, so they’d be rooting for the Bills just to screw us…
Next week, when Dallas plays the Eagles, it doesn’t matter at all to either team, since we both beat those clubs already this year. We each will take one loss and one win to our records no matter what, or two ties… which equals the same in the math….

Step Six Strength of schedule.
This is the same as strength of victory except you include the teams you lost to. I’m not going to break it down as in depth because you only have to refer to the SOV section

The Steelers’ current SOS is 75-92-2 (0.450)
The Browns’ is 75-92-3 (.450)
I counted last nights Vegas game to the browns stats lol
 
*********The next sets of steps cannot be officially clinched in theory. They are mostly point related. If you get down here things have gone really wonky on the season….
Step 7 Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
For this step you look at total points scored and total points allowed for every team in the conference and rank them 1-16 in each category, then you add the two rankings together and divide it by two. The lowest number among teams at this step wins it so if a team is 3rd in points scored and 7th in points allowed they would score a 5 on average. If another team was 10th in points scored but 1st in points allowed, they would score a 5.5… the first team would win the tiebreaker…

Step 8 Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
This follows the same principles as step 7, except its for the AFC and NFC teams, so the rankings are 1-32….

Step 9 Best net points in common games.
This is simply total points scored minus total points allowed in common games. If one team scored 200 points in common games, but allowed 207, the total would be (-7), if another scored 150 but allowed 145 their total would be +5 and they would beat the first team in this tiebreaker

Step 10 Best net points in all games.
This is simply total points scored minus total points allowed in the teams total games played. It’s the same concept as step 9

Step 11 Best net touchdowns in all games. Score more TDs, win this step…

Step 12 Coin toss -Just don’t let Bettis call it…..
 
CONFERENCE TIEBREAKERS
- This is to compare teams from one division to the next… for any playoff slot only one team gets to move on at a time, so inter division ties are always broken first and only one from each division is compared
- Unlike the divisional tiebreaks, there are a few differences from 2 club tiebreakers to 3 or more
Cross-divisional (Conference) Tiebreakers for 2 clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.CONFERENCE TIEBREAKERS
- This is to compare teams from one division to the next… for any playoff slot only one team gets to move on at a time, so inter division ties are always broken first and only one from each division is compared
- Unlike the divisional tiebreaks, there are a few differences from 2 club tiebreakers to 3 or more
Cross-divisional (Conference) Tiebreakers for 2 clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
So the only difference here is that divisional games drops out of the equation and conference games jumps up to number two… everything else stays the same as the Division tiebreakers… its also why no matter what, if we win out we should be rooting hard for the Chargers in the final game vs KC…

So the only difference here is that divisional games drops out of the equation and conference games jumps up to number two… everything else stays the same as the Division tiebreakers… its also why no matter what, if we win out we should be rooting hard for the Chargers in the final game vs KC…
 
Cross-divisional (Conference) Tiebreakers for 3 or more clubs
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

Now the big difference in this set of tiebreakers is that it calls out that the head to head tiebreaker can only be used in a sweep situation… so if KC, Buffalo and the Steelers tied, the steelers don’t lose out since they lost to buffalo and the bills lost to KC… The steelers didn’t play KC, rendering this moot.

Now in the common games section, it would be common games between all of the teams involved and for that to reach the minimum of four is not the way current scheduling works… so that’s pretty much a dead step for now

Everything else remains the same as the other tiebreakers
 
CoolieMan said:
Steelers win out and KC drops their next two..STeelers are #1 seed
Click to expand...

Not counting ties or three way scenarios, there are 13 out of 64 scenarios that we beat KC head to head in... now many would open the door to the bills or one of the south teams beating us both....

The two best scenarios are us winning out and chiefs either losing two or losing vs the chargers, though that probably means risking dressing everyone forctge last game of the season and hoping the chiefs lose...
 
Part of me wanted to post this over at the Browns board, cause those nitwits are having trouble understanding how there are scenarios where they are tied in record with Tennessee and the titans make tge playoffs and the Browns miss it

Because they select one team at a time for each spot and they only take one team at a time from each division, there are scenarios where the Ravens win out and the Browns drop a game and the Ravens beat the browns in division standings
This leads to the ravens, not the Browns, being the afc north team in the running for the wildcard spots first... in the scenarios where miami and the titans are the two teams with the same or better records than the ravens, those two get the top two wildcard spots then the ravens get the last spot... the Browns never get a chance to tiebreak against the other division... miami gets in first... then the titans get in, then the Ravens get in...
 
Bumping this in case the game were to be canceled... the Steelers and browns winning % would be frozen as is... teams tied with them now that played another game would see their winning % rise with a win and fall with a loss...

In effect it would increase the Steelers odds of getting the 2 seed because instead of needing a win plus a Buffalo loss, they just would need a Buffalo loss

The Browns would be in as long as at least one of the other 4 teams trying to get the wildcard falters and loses... on one hand it increases their odds against the ravens or dolphins, but it reduces their odds against indy or tge ****...
 
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