PFF mock - some WTF moments here

[Slaine]

While I'm sure that a lot of this is to drive traffic, I'm stunned by just how differently they are valuing some players from other 'experts'.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pff-2018-nfl-mock-draft-3

Their caveat is "As always, these picks are not a prediction, but what I would do as general manager of each team."

It was done nearly four weeks ago so the Jets trade isn't in there. But even then you have:

1. Mayfield, QB
2. Darnold, QB
3. Hurst, DL
4. James, S
5. Rosen, QB
6. Jackson, QB

The Steelers get Josh Allen at #28.

The only reason for sharing is that they base everything on analytics so it's fascinating to see what they're suggesting.

 

[SteelerFan448]

Even using their analytics, it is a lot to suggest that Mayfield is the best player in this draft--and that is a guy I want to see succeed in the NFL.

 

[Litos]

if by any chance Allen is there you can't pass up the chance to either take him or make a very big trade for an early 2nd rounder and a future high pick.

 

[Ike Kelly]

It’s PFF what do you expect? PFF has as much insight as any normal blog site. Remember there are some posters who consider it their bible. Even though their method is purely suggestive. Not factual.


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[Black & Gold Bleeder]

if Mayfield was there at 28,, I take him for Steelers

 

[Coach]

It’s PFF what do you expect? PFF has as much insight as any normal blog site. Remember there are some posters who consider it their bible. Even though their method is purely suggestive. Not factual.


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I agree with you in this case because the competition in college varies considerably, making statistical analysis more difficult. Ten sacks in the WAC is not the same as ten sacks in the SEC. A computer system unaided won't know the different unless they also grade in competition levels, which they might.

However, I do think PFF in the NFL is pretty good. If I were two post their opinion on a few players and listed them next to two guys who know what they're are talking about, Say Mayock and Brian Billick, you might think PFFs ratings were the best or 2nd best of the bunch. If there was no cheating, I'd do it to prove a point.

If you objectively look at where PFF rates our best players you'll more or less disagree. It's the ones poorly rated that burn you, just because some fans are that way and hate to see the light shown on some of their not so good players.

 

[Ike Kelly]

I agree with you in this case because the competition in college varies considerably, making statistical analysis more difficult. Ten sacks in the WAC is not the same as ten sacks in the SEC. A computer system unaided won't know the different unless they also grade in competition levels, which they might.

However, I do think PFF in the NFL is pretty good. If I were two post their opinion on a few players and listed them next to two guys who know what they're are talking about, Say Mayock and Brian Billick, you might think PFFs ratings were the best or 2nd best of the bunch. If there was no cheating, I'd do it to prove a point.

If you objectively look at where PFF rates our best players you'll more or less disagree. It's the ones poorly rated that burn you, just because some fans are that way and hate to see the light shown on some of their not so good players.

“Sigh”......what you don’t understand Coach is you cannot look objectively at PFF statistical analysis. First it’s proprietary, so the actual raw statistics (the same that everyone uses) is analyzed and collated to what THEY feel is the correct from an assignment and issues a grade result. This is purely subjective as how can you grade a player was wrong or right on a play, when you don’t even know what the actual assignment for that player was? A PFF evaluator can look the tape of a play from say a left tackle and determine that he got beat from a fire zone blitz from the SS. When actually the play requires the LT to hand off any player on his inside shoulder to the LG, C or RB. So actually it was another position who got beat, and not the LT. Hence, a coach would correctly diagram the failure to the correct player, because the coach actually knows what the responsibility is for each player on whatever circumstance. PFF doesn’t, and just states their proprietary formula gives them the “objective” data. When it isn’t objective it’s guessing.

Mayock is a fine evaluator.....Billick I am less a follower. He went the evaluator route so as to keep a position at NFL Network and spend more time with his family. No doubt he is a heck of a offensive football scholar, but his evaluations are sub par. He doesn’t put in the work that Mayock does....not even close. Besides Billick drafted Kyle Boller because he was infatuated with his arm strength. We know how that worked out.


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[AggieSteel]

Allen is only a first rounder based on measurables, scouts in love with his size/arm/athleticism/etc. His completion percentage and overall statistical performance was ****, hard to imagine analytics puts him in the first round at all. But I guess they do take into account whether an incomplete pass may have been a wrong route or, in some way, not the QB's fault. But.. man.. guys like Allen are just not analytics friendly

 

[Slaine]

Allen is only a first rounder based on measurables, scouts in love with his size/arm/athleticism/etc. His completion percentage and overall statistical performance was ****, hard to imagine analytics puts him in the first round at all. But I guess they do take into account whether an incomplete pass may have been a wrong route or, in some way, not the QB's fault. But.. man.. guys like Allen are just not analytics friendly

I agree - it's tough to factor in that Wyoming as a team pretty sucked into any evaluation of Allen.

 

[Coach]

“Sigh”......what you don’t understand Coach is you cannot look objectively at PFF statistical analysis. First it’s proprietary, so the actual raw statistics (the same that everyone uses) is analyzed and collated to what THEY feel is the correct from an assignment and issues a grade result. This is purely subjective as how can you grade a player was wrong or right on a play, when you don’t even know what the actual assignment for that player was? A PFF evaluator can look the tape of a play from say a left tackle and determine that he got beat from a fire zone blitz from the SS. When actually the play requires the LT to hand off any player on his inside shoulder to the LG, C or RB. So actually it was another position who got beat, and not the LT. Hence, a coach would correctly diagram the failure to the correct player, because the coach actually knows what the responsibility is for each player on whatever circumstance. PFF doesn’t, and just states their proprietary formula gives them the “objective” data. When it isn’t objective it’s guessing.

Mayock is a fine evaluator.....Billick I am less a follower. He went the evaluator route so as to keep a position at NFL Network and spend more time with his family. No doubt he is a heck of a offensive football scholar, but his evaluations are sub par. He doesn’t put in the work that Mayock does....not even close. Besides Billick drafted Kyle Boller because he was infatuated with his arm strength. We know how that worked out.


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If you can't see how it works how can you objectively shoot it down? They employ a lot of people. Not saying its perfect, but I do think its good. Agree on Mayock. Billick has great integrity. I think. But you get my point I put three top ten lists out there with PFF being one of them. You could not say who PFF was, and you might even like it best.

 

[Ike Kelly]

If you can't see how it works how can you objectively shoot it down? They employ a lot of people. Not saying its perfect, but I do think its good. Agree on Mayock. Billick has great integrity. I think. But you get my point I put three top ten lists out there with PFF being one of them. You could not say who PFF was, and you might even like it best.

You just answered your own question dimrod. How can they objectively rate a player when they can't see or know what the assignment was for a play at that given time? The government employs a lot of people too, especially in the past. How has that worked out? You can put a hundred top ten lists. That's all they are, top ten subjective lists.

 

[Coach]

Ike Kelly sys How can they objectively rate a player when they can't see or know what the assignment was for a play at that given time?

With the bar set that high no one can except for a player's own team. I guess that's where you want to take it.

In many cases I find the PFF ratings a better judge than say the Pro bowl which is 2/3 voted by the coaches and players.