Tj Watt or Buddha Baker?

[mightyguru]

Gimme da Buddha. Looks like Earl Thomas.

 

[Steeltime]

Gimme da Buddha. Looks like Earl Thomas.

That is the most common comparison, given their very similar builds, speed, and college productivity. But Thomas has 10 lbs. on Baker, and did 21 reps, compared to 15.

 

[Steeltime]

While I agree that better pass rushers help coverage, with certain precision schemes that get the ball out quickly, the pass rush often does not get there in time. I don't care who the pass rusher is, if the DB cannot walk up on the WR, they can pitch and catch all day long.

So basically, your thinking is that if the Steelers add Baker and perhaps another CB, they will be willing to go man and have the DB's press the receivers? Because to me, the Steelers scheme explains the fact that receivers get a free release and the dink-dunk, short passing game tears them up. Until that scheme changes, then the Steelers will Groundhog Day teams that use crossing routes and go over the middle of the field, time after time after time after time after ...

 

[TMC]

So basically, your thinking is that if the Steelers add Baker and perhaps another CB, they will be willing to go man and have the DB's press the receivers? Because to me, the Steelers scheme explains the fact that receivers get a free release and the dink-dunk, short passing game tears them up. Until that scheme changes, then the Steelers will Groundhog Day teams that use crossing routes and go over the middle of the field, time after time after time after time after ...

I think what Butler wants are DBs that can press, but also DBs that can play zone when needed. He wants DBs that can do a variety of things. I mean, Burns is learning zone coverage, so I think they really want guys who can adjust to the team they are playing. I think Burns and Davis are the first pieces. I think Baker and a press corner would give them most of the secondary pieces they need. Then, you have guys that can walk down on to the WRs and even if they are playing zone, they can give them that tough release off the line, gives the pass rush another beat to get there and stops those quick hitters.

 

[keslerclan]

Some of his combine numbers are very good, others are just average. He ran a 4.69 forty. Jarvis Jones ran a 4.84 and was considered too slow. That is 0.15 less. To put that in perspective, Dupree beat Watt's forty by 0.15. Jordan Willis beat it by 0.16. His vertical jump is up there. His broad jump is solid as well. His change of direction numbers are elite. In essence, his lower body explosion numbers are really good. His strength, meh. He had 21 reps on the bench. Longer arms, so discount that, but still, that isn't elite. Overall, good enough. Lawson, pretty freaky numbers. Bench was 35, shuttle was 4.39. Vertical was 33 with just shy of a 10' broad jump, so his KEI was 78. Watt's KEI was 69. Derek Rivers, how is big like Watt, similar arm length, ran a 4.61 forty, his short shuttle was less at 4.40, but his bench was 30, VJ was 35", and his BJ was over 10'. That is a KEI of 76. If you look at Watt's numbers as a whole, very similar to Tyus Bowser.

Really tough group to find a guy for me to latch onto...they all have strengths and weaknesses. It really depends on what they want them to do on defense. If they want straight ahead edge setters and pass rushers, like the OLBs of old, Lawson/McKinley might be the guy. If they value coverage a little more, versatility, Watt/Rivers/Bowser is the guy.

TJ Watt's numbers are pretty AMAZING if you ask me. He was a TOP performer in FIVE of the 7 combine drills with ELITE numbers in all 5 categories. The most important drill for determining if an OLB will succeed are the 3-cone and the shuttle where he had his best numbers. His 3-cone and shuttle were better than most CBs and his shuttle of 4.13 was 2nd...if you added ALL safeties (Budda Baker #1 at 4.08) Watt's 3-cone was 6.79 which would have him at 11th best IF you add ALL TEs, DBs, Ss and LBs. Again, he finished .03 behind Budda Baker (who is going to be a pro-bowl player, IMO)

Now, the comparison of his 40 time to a criminally slow Jarvis Jones who ran that 4.84 after the Combine where 40 results tend to be on average .08-.10 faster than the combine. Watt ran about average for a Pro-Bowl OLB. That's right, most of the top OLBs in the league run a 4.7. However, NONE of them run poorly in the 3-cone and shuttle. I looked at the top 15 rated 'edge rushers' from PFF for 2016 (which had one of their strange 'pressure per rush formulas' which made it suck, but I digress). the list includes all edge rushers, not just 3-4 OLBs. I don't necessarily agree with the list but the results come out the same regardless of whose list I use...Tamba Hali is the ONLY OLB/Edge to have a productive career with higher than average shuttle and 3-cone (even though he ran them at 275#)

NAME 3-C SHU 40 WT
1. K. Mack - 7.08 - 4.18 - 4.65 - 251
2. B. Graham - 7.01 - 4.25 - 4.72 - 268
3. V. Miller - 6.70 - 4.06 - 4.53 - 246
4. C. Jordan - 7.07 - 4.37 - 4.78 - 287
5. J Bosa - 6.89 - 4.21 - 4.86 - 269
6. C. Wake - 7.12 - 4.11 - 4.67 - 236
7. M.Ingram - 6.83 - 4.18 - 4.79 - 264
8.W. Mercilus - 7.17 - 4.53 - 4.68 - 261
9. J. Clowney - 7.27 - 4.43 - 4.53 - 266
10. C. Jones - 7.07 - 4.38 - 4.87 - 266
11. J. Harrison DNP
12. M. Bennett DNP
13. O.Vernon - 7.39 - 4.50 - 4.80 - 261
14. JP Paul - 7.18 - 4.67 - 4.78 - 270
15. C. Dunlap - 7.21 - 4.61 - 4.71 - 277
7.07 4.34 4.73

Of their top 15, the AVG for the shuttle was 4.34 with the highest being 4.67 by JPP and second highest at 4.61 by Dunlap. (both players over 270#) The lowest shuttle was 4.11 by a 236# Cam Wake followed by Khalil Mack w 4.18 at 251#
Now, let's look at some actual 3-4 OLBs of the last few years who have had some success in the NFL:

Name 3-C SHU 40 WT
L. Floyd - 7.18 - 4.32 - 4.60 - 244
C.Matthews - 6.90 - 4.18 - 4.67 - 240
K.Mack - 7.08 - 4.18 - 4.65 - 251
J. Houston - 6.95 - 4.37 - 4.76 - 270
R.Kerrigan - 7.18 - 4.39 - 4.79 - 267
V. MIller - 6.70 - 4.06 - 4.53 - 246
D. Ware - 6.83 - 4.07 - 4.65 - 251
6.97 4.22 4.66

Here are a few links IF you find this remotely interesting:
http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/14837586/todd-mcshay-guide-every-combine-drill-nfl-draft
http://thebiglead.com/2017/03/07/t-...ey-at-the-combine-put-up-outstanding-numbers/
http://247sports.com/Bolt/What-combine-drills-matter-for-each-position-group-35723655
https://rjgarnerauthor2.wordpress.com/2016/05/05/edge-rushers-combine-numbers-vs-pro-production/
http://www.ign.com/boards/threads/s...4-olbs-3-cone-drill-vert-and-broad.200749295/

So I see TJ Watt being gone by our pick but I would love to have him as a guy who has elite combine numbers in 5 of 7 criteria with the most important ones being the best...on the other hand, ANOTHER reason I don't like Takk McKinley on our board is HIS 3-cone and Shuttle were about as bad as most Offensive Lineman....


Tak McKInley - 7.48 - 4.62 - 4.59 - 250
Jarvis Jones - 7.46 - 4.71 - 4.88 - 245
6.97 4.22
Notables: Low grades
A. Maybin - 7.52 - 4.38
A. Curry - 7.15 - 4.51
B. Werner - 7.30 - 4.40
D. Fowler - 7.40 - 4.32
B. Dupree - 7.52 - 4.48

I hope we get a good player and I agree that we might be better off taking an impact player in the secondary in the first round.

 

[TMC]

Sorry Kesler, I don't agree. I really don't agree that the two most important drills for OLBs are the shuttle and cone. NFL scouts, Gil Brandt for instance, develop metrics for pass rushers and none of them contain either of those numbers. Kirwan's KEI measures the bench press, vertical jump, and broad jump because they feel those three numbers better quantify the explosive characteristics of a pass rusher than any other three numbers. If we were talking about coverage only, sure, they need that change of direction to cover receivers, but most edge rushers and that is the main job we are hunting with our OLB right now, need an explosive first step and enough power to disengage from blockers. Those are best measured in bench, vertical, and broad jump.

Now, is Watt in the top15-20 in most of the combine categories? Sure. In the vertical jump, there are ~8 guys that have put up better vertical jumps in this draft cycle, but if you look at guys from 35" up, there are over 20. In the broad jump, only Haason Reddick topped 11'. There were over 25 guys that got over 10'. In the shuttle, only three guys that I can see got into the 4.1 range, Watt/Lawson/Dimick. In the 3-cone, only Watt and Bowser got into the 6.7s. Nineteen players in this draft ran equal to or better than Watt's 4.69 forty. On the bench, not in the top 40 draft eligible edge rushers. If you limit the numbers to the combine, it moves him closer to the top, but hell, Myles Garrett barely did anything at the combine. He still hasn't put down a shuttle or cone, probably won't. No need. He did the drills they look at for edge rushers. He ran the 40, benched, BJ, VJ, called it a day.

Other guys you can throw in with notable low grades are Carlos Dunlap, Arthur Moats, Ryan Carrigan, Aldon Smith, Quinton Coples, Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry, Oliver Vernon, Jadaveon Clowney, Marcus Smith, Will Clarke, Lorenzo Mauldin, Marcus Golden, Shane Ray, Nate Orchard, Jordan Jenkins, Noah Spence, Emmanuel Ogbah, and many others.

The shuttle and 3-cone just are not great indicators for pass rushers.

 

[TMC]

I would also point out guys like Jared Allen, one of the most prolific sack guys in NFL history. There is Chris Clemons and his 69 career sacks. Charles Johnson is another guy, did not run the shuttle, had a 7.50 cone. Justin Tuck is another. Just too many guys that don't fit that box that turn out to be great pass rushers.

Those metrics fit coverage guys more than edge rushers. Are we really hunting OLBs that can drop and cover? Is that what everyone wants after the AFCC game? Better coverage backers?

Let me also add this though, Watt's VJ is pretty good and so is his BJ. The other indicator, his bench, is something I was stating prior to the combine and that was, he lacked functional strength at the point of attack. Do I think he gets there? Yeah. He isn't Jones. Dude works. He will add that power. In fact, he is the type of kid I can see seeking out James Harrison and becoming his shadow, potentially blowing up in a year because he just doesn't have an off switch. That is the biggest caveat with Watt.

 

[ZonaBurgh]

Saw an ESPN mock, think Mayock who has Watt going in round 2. Almost time to ditch the mocks and do the real thing. Hope the FO hits another home run this year.

Yep, time to get this done, saw a mock yesterday that had them going offense with their first 3 picks.

 

[Steeltime]

TMC: As I see it, the 40 time can potentially exclude a guy from consideration for an edge rusher (or at least should). Jones ran a 4.84. That basically should eliminate him from consideration as a top-tier edge rusher. I recall you hating the Jones pick - hating it - because the 4.84 meant Jones did not have the speed to beat the OT around the corner. You were right.

I tried to defend the pick ("He had a lot of sacks against SEC tackles, blah, blah"). I was waaaaay wrong.

So here is why Watt's 4.69 matters so much. It is NOT elite. No question. In fact, it is disappointing. But do you think it eliminates him as a potential top-tier edge rusher?

I am just not sure. Watt's other results - particularly his vertical and broad jump - suggest he may be a very good pass rusher, His KEI was 69, just a tick below the 70 that portends the fast-twitch that teams like.

He has a lot to like as an edge rusher. I don't know what to think about that 4.69.

 

[TMC]

TMC: As I see it, the 40 time can potentially exclude a guy from consideration for an edge rusher (or at least should). Jones ran a 4.84. That basically should eliminate him from consideration as a top-tier edge rusher. I recall you hating the Jones pick - hating it - because the 4.84 meant Jones did not have the speed to beat the OT around the corner. You were right.

I tried to defend the pick ("He had a lot of sacks against SEC tackles, blah, blah"). I was waaaaay wrong.

So here is why Watt's 4.69 matters so much. It is NOT elite. No question. In fact, it is disappointing. But do you think it eliminates him as a potential top-tier edge rusher?

I am just not sure. Watt's other results - particularly his vertical and broad jump - suggest he may be a very good pass rusher, His KEI was 69, just a tick below the 70 that portends the fast-twitch that teams like.

He has a lot to like as an edge rusher. I don't know what to think about that 4.69.

I don't think there is any one single measureable that can eliminate a guy completely. Jones 40-time was bad, but he only had 20 reps on the bench, his VJ was 30.5", and his other numbers were horrid. When you combine that with the film, where I never saw him just whip someone's *** with great physical attributes or technique, it throws up red flags. That isn't Watt.

What I try to do is look for guys that check boxes or don't throw up red flags. For example, take Takk McKinley....his shuttle and one drills are not great. The shuttle doesn't bother me as much because that is more change of direction. It measures moving one way, stopping, and reversing field. Not many edge rushers make that hard stop and complete change of direction. The cone does measure some bend. I'd much rather have them put two circles out there and have them run a figure 8. The 40 gives you some idea of speed over distance, pursuit speed, with the first 10-yards being important. The vertical and BJ measures lower body explosion. The bench gives an idea of upper body power. So, I want guys that check those boxes and check the film boxes. Even if they are not elite, being middle of the pack for high end collegiate players isn't horrible. But, if they start falling into the bottom end, throwing up flags, for each flag, you can almost reduce their chance of making it by a certain percentage. In essence, for every bad thing, they become less likely to translate to the NFL, which is like going from playing blackjack to roulette. You might as well just give your pick away.

So, back to Takk, good film. He isn't bendy, combine drills confirmed it. Decent power with longer arms, combine kind of confirms it. Fast, confirmed. Good 10. Fair vertical and BJ. The combine backs up his film. He plays to his athletic strengths. Checks off hard worker. Coaches love him. Teammates love him. Keeps putting up checks. So, in essence, you are increasing your odds he will be successful. It doesn't mean he will, it just increases the odds.

But, some guys buck the trend. Clark Haggans ran a 4.93 forty with putrid numbers behind it. Terrell Suggs ran the same 40 as Jarvis, did not do anything else. But, his game was predicated more on power, whipping someone's ***. Still, increased the odds, he just beat them. I'd rather stay in the pool with greater odds. I play the percentages and stay off the longshots.

 

[Steeltime]

But, some guys buck the trend. Clark Haggans ran a 4.93 forty with putrid numbers behind it. Terrell Suggs ran the same 40 as Jarvis, did not do anything else. But, his game was predicated more on power, whipping someone's ***. Still, increased the odds, he just beat them. I'd rather stay in the pool with greater odds. I play the percentages and stay off the longshots.

Your response makes sense. And as to playing the percentages ... Vegas has gold-plated urinals because they have the odds. Agree 100%.

 

[Skott]

Watt has been living in the woods and eating stumps for three months with his brother. The guy is a pure football player.

Enough of these head cases with no work ethic. Watt will be a helluva player.

 

[keslerclan]

QUOTE: "The shuttle and 3-cone just are not great indicators for pass rushers."

Tom, I agree with MOST of what you said (as usual) BUT I learned a few things a few years back looking into the "numbers" on the 3-cone and shuttle and how they correlate to success at different positions AND I was surprised at WHAT I found out...you could be too?

I included 5 links in my earlier post. Most of them SPECIFICALLY point out that there are tangible correlations to those 2 drills as it relates to DEs and OLBs who have had success in the NFL (not meaning Orchard, Jenkins or Spence whose production was nearly duplicated by our own Jarvis who had worse numbers than all 3) OBVIOUSLY, there is a lot more to it than these 2 drills...it's not a panacea BUT it is REALLY DIFFICULT to find ANY productive players with numbers in these 2 drills as bad as Jarvis or Takk. I looked at all of the ones you listed and ONLY Clemons (a UDFA, btw, who had half of his sack production in SEA playing at 265# in 3 years at DE) and Nick Perry (who ran at 271#). were outside of the numbers put up by Takk and Jarvis.

To me, that is pretty remarkable. Out of the 24 guys I looked up...only those 2 had a shuttle higher than Jarvis and Takk. Most of the players who were even close were between 260-284#. Tall or long limbed guys tend to have higher #'s as well BUT not significantly high.

Again, I ran all the numbers on all the players you mentioned PLUS Hali and P.Mcphee who ran at 275 and 278#...again, same results. Now I looked at the 3-Cone:

Again, pretty remarkable. Out of all 24 guys...only 4 of them had 3-cone numbers equal to or greater than Takk and Jarvis...S.Ray, Coples, Clemons and Marcus Smith (Smith and Clemons @ 7.48 while Ray @ 7.60 and Coples @ 7.57 and 284#) Again, Smith has 4 sacks in 2 years, Clemons had most of his sacks at SEA as a DE and at 265#, while Coples was a huge dude playing DE.

The first link: http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/14837586/todd-mcshay-guide-every-combine-drill-nfl-draft

Here, Todd McShay goes through every drill at the combine (while I don't respect him as much as some here, including yourself...it IS a nice explanation/chart) where he lists WHAT is important about each drill and which positions it matters most. For instance, for the 40, he has DEs red flag threshold at 5.05 while OLBs are at 4.90. In the drills in question, he has a red flag threshold for the Shuttle for DEs at 4.65 and OLBs at 4.45. He ALSO goes into WHY they matter and WHAT they measure (which you covered). In the 3-Cone, he has a red flag threshold for DEs at 7.50 and OLBs at 7.40.

The reason it matters MORE to a OLB vs a DE are pretty obvious but the reason these 5 articles look at it is BECAUSE there IS a REAL correlation to success at those positions in the NFL. Hell, I looked at probably 50 players and NONE of them who had over 6 sacks/yr average scored above the red flag numbers for both drills McShay and his year-round full-time analytics had come up with. NONE of them. A few were borderline for one or the other but NONE scored outside of both. I found that pretty amazing...and I didn't expect to see something like these 2 drills matter THAT much. I looked at those numbers for receivers and DBs and to some degree ILBs but I NEVER expected to see the DIRECT undeniable evidence that players who succeed out on the edge just don't score outside of the numbers in both of theses drills.

Unquestionably, Shane Ray is the only 3-4 OLB who is an outlier at this point but he's still better than Takk and Jarvis in 1 of the drills. Like I said, while I expected most of the bigger/taller players to have higher numbers...they weren't that high AND most went on to play at DE and not at OLB.

I also "get" what you mean about coverage able OLBs vs Rush OLBs but my investigations still made me look at the "whole picture" more than I did in the past. Hell, most of us think the 40 matters to OLBs but in reality, the BEST ones out there ran a 4.65 plus at the combine and some like Deebo can do it w a 5.0? (Matthews, who ran a 4.67 had 23 sacks in his first 2 years at 3-4 OLB and Khalil ran a 4.65 with similar production. I don't think we are looking for a coverage OLB any more than we are looking for a 2-5 sack per year prospect and the agility numbers appear to be related to the 8+ sack per year guys.

As far as Takk, I'm not gonna worry about it until he's on the team but he DOES have one of the best Gil Brandt "Get-Offs" of the bunch which could make up for some deficiencies in agility, IMO.

 

[Spike]

So, the consensus in this thread is TJ Watt sucks.

Noted