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Some have asked here is your answer..
Some have asked here is your answer..
Haley on going deep on 3rd and short
- Thread starter antdrewjosh
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While I'm not a big fan of throwing it down field on 3rd and shorts, his explanation makes sense.
When a QB like Ben can get a predictable defense with one-on-ones on the outside with our WRs, I guess you have to take some shots.
I'd just prefer some balance.. I think there are some times when you need to just extend the drive by picking up the 2-3 yards.
When a QB like Ben can get a predictable defense with one-on-ones on the outside with our WRs, I guess you have to take some shots.
I'd just prefer some balance.. I think there are some times when you need to just extend the drive by picking up the 2-3 yards.
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I think the idea is that they've got a vertical route or two on the outside and if Ben sees a guy, he gives it a heave...
Ben is one of those guys who feels like his receivers... they're ALWAYS open!
Ben is one of those guys who feels like his receivers... they're ALWAYS open!
Extending the drive is key especially when the defense gives up a 70+ yard, 6-8 minute drive. The defense needs some time to rest.
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I guess I get it.. plus if you do it enough times, teams start to scheme for it. This, I imagine, would open up more opportunities underneath to actually pick up the short first down
"When you throw the ball downfield, you can usually pick up a lot of yards" - John Madden
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Eh I still don't like it so often. I'm all for going deep especially with our WR corp but keep the drive going and take your deep shots on 1st or 2nd down or 3rd and longer. Haley said himself he knows the coverage will most likely be man on 3rd and short. Man coverage doesn't automatically have to equal a deep pass. When you have a guy like Brown who is a practically unstoppable route runner, rubs, crosses and slants work just as effective if not better at picking up those 3rd and shorts against man coverage (ask Tom Brady). It's about risk/reward and we seem to overthink everything to create more risk than is actually necessary (i.e. fake fg's, deep passes on 3rd and short, WR reverse pass)
Meh if you always throw short they crowd the box on 3rd... We are hitting on nearly 50% of those deep shots with healthy Ben in there... If defenses are dumb enough to allow that then by all means, go for it
I'm more of a fan of trying to extend the drive, but there have a handful of these passes that have been dropped.
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I guess what I gathered from it was that they have plays designed on 3rd down that send 1 receiver deep, (often Martavis) and that Ben has the option, it's not so much that they're purposefully saying "Hells YA we're going deep here!" It's that they send a guy deep since they know they're going to have man on the outside and we've got a speed threat outside who's tall and who can generally catch fairly well.
As it turns out, Ben likes the long ball... If he even sees a glimpse of a chance at a deep ball - there's a good chance he's gonna throw it. That's what I hear Haley saying here. I expect they have 2 or 3 OTHER guys running those slants and crossing routes at the 3 and 8 yard depths that are more conservative. Whether or not Ben chooses to go with those options... Well, A Good QB Always has a receiver open, because on about every single play SOMEBODY is open. Good QBs can find them.
Conversely, The Bruce would send EVERYBODY deep on 3rd and eternity. Hell, he'd send the center on a go route. That was ******* maddening! Ben would drop back, there would be 5 Ravens closing in on him within 2.5 seconds which ought to be PLENTY of time for a decent dump off pass for 8 to 10 yards easy, but when you look down the field there's nothin' but the backs of receivers jerseys sprinting downfield completely oblivious to their QB who's about to be gang-raped by Suggs and company. Meanwhile the center, the gaurd and a tackle are 9 yards downfield as well...
As it turns out, Ben likes the long ball... If he even sees a glimpse of a chance at a deep ball - there's a good chance he's gonna throw it. That's what I hear Haley saying here. I expect they have 2 or 3 OTHER guys running those slants and crossing routes at the 3 and 8 yard depths that are more conservative. Whether or not Ben chooses to go with those options... Well, A Good QB Always has a receiver open, because on about every single play SOMEBODY is open. Good QBs can find them.
Conversely, The Bruce would send EVERYBODY deep on 3rd and eternity. Hell, he'd send the center on a go route. That was ******* maddening! Ben would drop back, there would be 5 Ravens closing in on him within 2.5 seconds which ought to be PLENTY of time for a decent dump off pass for 8 to 10 yards easy, but when you look down the field there's nothin' but the backs of receivers jerseys sprinting downfield completely oblivious to their QB who's about to be gang-raped by Suggs and company. Meanwhile the center, the gaurd and a tackle are 9 yards downfield as well...
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Yes, again its not always a deep pass on 3rd and anything, nor is it martyball always looking for the easy convert... Its take what the D gives you, and i am fine with that
If Martavis can get better at high pointing the ball - and aggressively working back to underthrown balls - it will be even more successful including getting pass interference penalties. Except for the game against the Browns, I don't recall us getting many DPI calls this year (we had one against the Bengals that the refs decided to "pick up"...)
Going deep on 3rd and short on occasion - particularly with a favorable 1-on-1 matchup - makes sense.
Going deep on 3rd and short two or three times per game does not. The lowest completion percentage for all passes in the NFL are those over 20 yards. The highest conversion rate for 3rd downs are those of 2 yards or less.
Throwing so many lowest percentage passes in the highest percentage conversion situation makes little sense.
My favorite time to go deep is play-action on 1st down. The defense is respecting the run, the linebackers are playing honest, the safety has to respect the run, the pass rushers have to respect the run and cannot go charging up the field, and if the pass is incomplete, then so what? 2nd and 10.
Going deep on 3rd and short two or three times per game does not. The lowest completion percentage for all passes in the NFL are those over 20 yards. The highest conversion rate for 3rd downs are those of 2 yards or less.
Throwing so many lowest percentage passes in the highest percentage conversion situation makes little sense.
My favorite time to go deep is play-action on 1st down. The defense is respecting the run, the linebackers are playing honest, the safety has to respect the run, the pass rushers have to respect the run and cannot go charging up the field, and if the pass is incomplete, then so what? 2nd and 10.
Except that is the most conservative plan out there and everyone expects just that... the bengals, for instance, have made a living under Coach Lewis jumping third down short routes. Play action is least able to work in predictable circumstances and vs some teams safeties are taught to not play the run in those circumstances. Its easy to want that because it seems like a high percentage play, but teams that play that way score fewer points because its so conventional...
the fact of the matter is that the threat of the deep pass opens up the rest of the field these days, and there are more good things that happen than bad things when you chuck it up... the steelers are 4th in the league in defensive Pass interference calls for them... they are first in pass receptions over 40 yards, and 5th in over 20 yards...
The steelers convert 3rds at a normal level despite having a higher than normal deep pass rate in that situation... their deep pass completion % is phenomenal despite Ben missing a good amount of time... too much being made of this topi. their last 3 game they converted 3rds at a rate (47%) higher than the best team averages this year (46%) their last game they converted over 60%....
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It's definitely boom or bust type play calling. Don't be surprised if we put up 40+ points vs. some of the leagues best defenses. Conversely, don't be surprised if we lose a game we should have won due to a poor 3rd down conversion percentage.
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You know what? I'm okay with it. I honestly think most defenses are legitimately intimidated to go up against this offense, and this is one of the reasons why. The aggressiveness we display in all aspects of our offense has to strike a ping of anxiety into opposing defensive coordinators. This is who we are. I'm okay with aggressive/attacking being our identity on offense. It makes us who we are
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I'm OK with it as it has worked, I just recognize the peril in it.
Everything in moderation. I like it occasionally, so long as the team is smart about the circumstances. There are times when it doesn't make any sense to do that - when the 3rd down conversion is the most important thing. So far, I don't think this strategy has hurt them too much (or maybe I can't remember the situation where it did - I'm getting old).
I don't mind taking a shot or two like that per game. Just so long as it doesn't become too predictable either way.
It can be useful as long as they are not predictable about it. Mix it up.
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Good point. You can bet teams will prepare for it.
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Don't forget, NOT that every 3rd and two is going to get converted with the short ball. I'm good with the long ball mixed in with the perfect consistancy of which we either convert the 3rd and two OR score a touchdown !!!!!!!!!!
Salute the nation
Salute the nation
I think so too