Tomlin correct on saving a timeout?

[Steelerfan81]

http://dkpittsburghsports.com/2015/11/12/matts-stats-too-much-time-on-their-hands/
From one of the writers at dksports.. rest of the story is at the link

Using Pro-Football-Reference.com’s superb Win Probability Calculator, the Steelers had about an 8 percent chance of getting a victory after Cincinnati’s Reggie Nelson intercepted Ben Roethlisberger and returned the ball to the Pittsburgh 26-yard line.

After Mike Nugent‘s field goal and a touchback on the resulting kickoff, the Steelers’ win probability actually rose to 15 percent, for the simple reason that they had possession. But what would that number look like if Tomlin had burned all three timeouts before the two-minute warning?

If we assume that the Bengals would have run the ball three times, that would take about five to seven seconds per play. Let’s say that Nugent’s field goal goes through at 2:20 and the Steelers accept the touchback. Their win probability at that point is 16 percent, so it appears Tomlin would have put his team in a slightly better position to prevail by being more aggressive with timeouts.


Could Ben Roethlisberger have been put in a better position to win against the Bengals? — GETTY
But, one thing the Win Probability Calculator doesn’t account for is the value of a timeout. Clearly, having one timeout with the ball puts a team in a better spot than having none, which was part of Tomlin’s postgame argument.

Last year, football analyst Brian Burke (no, not that one) studied what a timeout might be worth in the context of win probability. Burke concluded that 3 percent is a good estimate, although there are other contingencies that could make that value slightly more or less.

For simplicity’s sake, though, let’s accept that calling a timeout costs a team 3 percent win probability. If we apply that number, a team that has zero timeouts with 2:20 remaining and trailing by six points is roughly 2 percent worse off than a team that has one timeout and 1:47 to go.

However, the two-minute warning provides a clock stoppage, which benefits the team trailing more, especially if that team is on offense. Maybe it’s a wash, at least until around the 1:15 mark, when win probability begins to decline sharply for a team down six. Until then, a timeout is worth more than the 30 seconds or so the Steelers let run off the clock.

All of which leads us back to Tomlin’s concern about the Bengals getting the ball back with enough time to counterpunch. If the Steelers call all three timeouts before the two-minute warning and drive down the field in 1:20 — to pick a random number — that gives Cincinnati one minute to kick the winning field goal.

The Steelers’ win probability in that situation is 73 percent, so it’s not like they would be in a bad position. However, if the Bengals’ two-minute offense is as good as Tomlin feared it would be, perhaps the result would be closer to a coin flip.

Still, 50-50 is better than not scoring at all and losing the game. Obviously. Even in this era of increased offense, at no time during a game is the trailing team more likely to win than the one in front. I feel this part of Tomlin’s explanation to be misguided.

One thing is clear to me after completing this exercise: These controversial late-game decisions are not nearly as clean-cut as some of us may believe.

The Steelers hired Carnegie Mellon professor Karim Kassam earlier this year to handle analytics and research, and I would be highly surprised if the team hasn’t looked at time-management optimization in depth.

This is merely one example. I’m not saying every call the Steelers make is the right one, but it’s probable there’s more than one brain at work when it comes to controlling the clock.

 

[bermudasteel]

I said it already - I didn't have a problem w/ Coach Tomlin saving the TO. IMO, Ben tends to make mistakes when his back is up against the wall and presses when he doesn't need to. "If" we would have had two TO's, instead of one, I don't think Ben throws that INT...

But, we all know, hindsight is 20/20...

 

[Superman]

you could ask Tomlin what 2+2 is and broadcast the answer across the internet in real time. when he answered "4", some here would wet their lily white panties because it took him .002 too long to answer.

 

[bermudasteel]

you could ask Tomlin what 2+2 is and broadcast the answer across the internet in real time. when he answered "4", some here would wet their lily white panties because it took him .002 too long to answer.

Vader is gonna have a kitten about this...

 

[Steelerfan81]

I said it already - I didn't have a problem w/ Coach Tomlin saving the TO. IMO, Ben tends to make mistakes when his back is up against the wall and presses when he doesn't need to. "If" we would have had two TO's, instead of one, I don't think Ben throws that INT...

But, we all know, hindsight is 20/20...

He didn't throw a pick on the last drive.

 

[Stainless]

If we had 38 more seconds, I think Ben would have nailed that last three pointer.

 

[antdrewjosh]

This is just saying what shouldn't be have to be said these clock management controversial late-game decisions are not nearly as clean-cut as some of us may believe.

 

[stillwright]

If you are going to us the TO's after the 2 min warning to save time why not use them before it to save time? At least 2 and use the 2 min warning to stop it a third time . You then still have one TO in your back pocket.

 

[Omar10213245]

you could ask Tomlin what 2+2 is and broadcast the answer across the internet in real time. when he answered "4", some here would wet their lily white panties because it took him .002 too long to answer.

Oh please, we all know his answer would be "5"

 

[SteelerSask2]

I still say you leave the maximum time while YOU control the ball. 30 seconds more would have been huge. And there were very few plays that a timeout would have saved much. I believe the biggest was the one they used. A 20 or so yard pass to Miller. The fake spike pass to Bryant was ridiculous though. Could have ended the game.

 

[SteelerAl]

Agreed, it's not black and white and - although I'm a big fan of David Todd - I'm starting to find his constant harping on Tomlin's clock management to be quite needless and tiresome. I'm mean ****, we are taking a microscope to these minute decisions every week while ignoring the things that work: shouldn't we be throwing Tomlin a parade for having the sack to go for 2 in the first half against the Raiders --- there's no other coach in the NFL that has shown a willingness to do that. And of course we scored a TD on a 4th and 1 --- a lot of NFL coaches would have settled for a FG there.

Certainly Tomlin has made mistakes in the clock management area, and I've been pissed off and yelling at the TV at times when I've perceived him to be making a mistake. But I've yet to see it actually cost us a game. And sometimes the criticism really is not warranted --- I liked the way he handled the end of the Bengals game because he basically forced the Bengals to turtle up and run the ball. If they were facing 3rd down with 2:10 left on the clock, they probably would have tried to throw for a first down that would have basically salted the game away.

 

[SteelerAl]

I still say you leave the maximum time while YOU control the ball. 30 seconds more would have been huge. And there were very few plays that a timeout would have saved much. I believe the biggest was the one they used. A 20 or so yard pass to Miller. The fake spike pass to Bryant was ridiculous though. Could have ended the game.

You know how we save 30 seconds? Have Ben act like a veteran QB and throw the ball away rather than taking a sack on the first play of the drive. That's what killed us.

 

[Steel G]

you could ask Tomlin what 2+2 is and broadcast the answer across the internet in real time. when he answered "4", some here would wet their lily white panties because it took him .002 too long to answer.

As if he would answer 4. More like, "Situational addition is difficult to assess as it is dependent on a number of deciding factors throughout the course of a football game. Obviously, we would like to achieve the collective unit of four numerals in that situation but we are willing to accept and acknowledge that we sometimes fall short of that mark."

 

[Stryker]

A first down would have ended the game. I understand not going all in ahead of 2min, because they would have attempted the first down and ended on kneel downs. By not using one of the TOs ahead of the 2min warning (which I thought we would do), it would have saved us 8sec.

Choosing to keep the TO for the offense was the right move. For some reason, our team can't reset in 10sec, and we used one of those TOs at midfield to reset the line (which saved 10sec).

10sec > 8sec.

It's a matter of strategy in TO usage, and time can be saved on both sides of the ball.

 

[madinsomniac]

Saving a timeout when needing a field goal is wise, blowing time when down a td is not. It wasn't a big difference, but Ben gets at least another crack at the ez if tomlin burns them all earlier...

 

[antdrewjosh]

Or if Ben doesnt waste 5 seconds with that wasted fake spike play to Bryant

 

[Vader]

Vader is gonna have a kitten about this...

I see I still have a free ride inside that melon of yours.

He didn't throw a pick on the last drive.

Facts aren't Bermuda's strengths. He's just the rah rah guy that has little actual knowledge of the game(s).

 

[Steel G]

A first down would have ended the game. I understand not going all in ahead of 2min, because they would have attempted the first down and ended on kneel downs.

We don't know that. Bengals were only converting on 26% of their 3rd downs. And by using the magic of pro football reference http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&search=&player_id=&year_min=2003&year_max=2015&team_id=cin&opp_id=&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter=4&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=3&seconds=00&down=3&yds_to_go_min=5&yds_to_go_max=&yg_gtlt=gt&yards=&is_first_down=-1&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_min=&field_pos_max_field=team&field_pos_max=&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_min=&end_field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_max=&type=PASS&type=RUSH&is_complete=-1&is_turnover=-1&turnover_type=interception&turnover_type=fumble&is_scoring=-1&score_type=touchdown&score_type=field_goal&score_type=safety&is_sack=-1&include_kneels=-1&no_play=0&game_day_of_week=&game_location=&game_result=&margin_min=1&margin_max=7&order_by=yards&rush_direction=LE&rush_direction=LT&rush_direction=LG&rush_direction=M&rush_direction=RG&rush_direction=RT&rush_direction=RE&pass_location=SL&pass_location=SM&pass_location=SR&pass_location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR, here's the numbers for Marvin Lewis in the 4th with 3 minutes or less to go and up by 1 to 7 points (or one score) on 3rd down with 5 or more yards to go (The down and distance in this game in question was a 3rd and 7.) Taking out the 6 kneel downs to end a game, he's had 28 total plays in those situations. Of those 28, he elected to pass just 10 times completing 6 of them. Of the 6 completions, just 2 resulted in first downs.

And even if he did decide to throw, given how well the D was playing and how Dalton and Co. were off their normal game, I'd take that chance. I say, make them make that play against you. Tomlin speaks of not living in his fears with offense, it should go for defense sometimes as well.

 

[antdrewjosh]

Has the defense earned that amount of trust yet?

 

[Stainless]

Assuming the same plays are run, which may be unlikely, and allowing for five seconds per play, which seems safe (five seconds elapsed on 2nd down, 4 seconds elapsed on 3rd down), Cincinnati would have been kicking with 2:29 left on the clock, as opposed to 1:51, had we used all three timeouts before the two minute warning. We would have gotten the ball back with about 2:24 on the clock as opposed to 1:47

 

[Steel G]

Has the defense earned that amount of trust yet?

After helping them to a 2-2 mark with Vick and Jones at QB, they should have. But apparently Tomlin didn't think so, even though at that point in the game they held the Bengals to 13 points, 10 of which came when the Bengals started at the Steeler 45 and the Steeler 39.

 

[antdrewjosh]

One play with AJ Green and Eifert I can understand the willingness to be conservative.

 

[SteelerAl]

After helping them to a 2-2 mark with Vick and Jones at QB, they should have. But apparently Tomlin didn't think so, even though at that point in the game they held the Bengals to 13 points, 10 of which came when the Bengals started at the Steeler 45 and the Steeler 39.

I'd much rather see the offense turtle up then trust the defense to make a key stop there.

If the offense turtles up, it's guaranteed that Ben has the ball in his hands down only 3 or 6 points, a timeout and enough time to put the ball in the endzone. I'll take that.

If the Bengals put the ball in the air on 3rd down (and our D can't focus solely on defending the pass, there's definitely a run threat...draw play to Bernard etc.), then all that is required to end the game is a 7-yard out to AJ Green or Eifert or any kind of defensive penalty.

I respect the Bengals offense enough to fear a successful 7-yard out. I know the strength of our defense is certainly not defending a 7-yard out. And the nature of the NFL in 2015 = advantage offense (including officials who can throw a flag for the most mild incidental contact by a DB).

 

[papillon]

I'd much rather see the offense turtle up then trust the defense to make a key stop there.

If the offense turtles up, it's guaranteed that Ben has the ball in his hands down only 3 or 6 points, a timeout and enough time to put the ball in the endzone. I'll take that.

If the Bengals put the ball in the air on 3rd down (and our D can't focus solely on defending the pass, there's definitely a run threat...draw play to Bernard etc.), then all that is required to end the game is a 7-yard out to AJ Green or Eifert or any kind of defensive penalty.

I respect the Bengals offense enough to fear a successful 7-yard out. I know the strength of our defense is certainly not defending a 7-yard out. And the nature of the NFL in 2015 = advantage offense (including officials who can throw a flag for the most mild incidental contact by a DB).

OTOH, should the Bengals pass and fail then the Steelers get 2:20, 1 TO and the 2 minute warning. If Lewis would throw it before the 2 minute warning to win the game then why wouldn't he throw it after the 2 minute warning and win the game? I don't see the Bengals strategy changing because the Steelers stop the clock 3 times prior to the 2 minute warning. If Lewis wanted to try and win the game on offense he would have tried in either scenario, IMO.

Papillon

 

[Steel G]

I'd much rather see the offense turtle up then trust the defense to make a key stop there. If the offense turtles up, it's guaranteed that Ben has the ball in his hands with a chance to win the game, a timeout and enough time to put the ball in the endzone. I'll take that.

If the Bengals put the ball in the air on 3rd down (and our D can't focus solely on defending the pass, there's definitely a run threat...draw play to Bernard etc.), then all that is required to end the game is a 7-yard out to AJ Green or Eifert or any kind of defensive penalty.

There's still no guarantee at all that they pass because that hasn't been Lewis's tendency. And his success rate when trying it has been poor. And, if they do try it, there are also variables that can go against them: Complete but short, complete but short and out of bounds stopping the clock, incomplete, penalty, interception, sack, sack and out of FG range, sack and fumble. Remember, at that point, he knows he has the FG to go up by 6 in his back pocket forcing the Steelers to need a TD to win. I seriously don't think he risks that at all, he's never been the type before.

In any event, it's old news, and I've expressed my opinion on it numerous times. There's nothing else really to add.