I know a lot of us were concerned that going into this season, the strength of schedule for our opponents was the toughest in the league. Many wanted to point to this stat as a reason why the Steelers wouldn't be able to compete or win this season and the sky was already falling. I've always seen stats as an interesting record of accomplishments, but those stats do not influence future performance.
My problem has always been with people saying this WILL happen or this CAN'T happen because STATISTICS. As we've seen this season, not only is our own team bucking their own previous season's statistical trend of terrible defense and high powered offense with an opportunistic defense and a conservative offense, but our opponents are not the juggernaut they were made out to be before the season started. I will agree that trends can be inferred through statistical performance, but those trends are never absolute.
At no time this season can the 2015 Steelers play any of the 2014 opponents with their strength of schedule. Each year there is flux in the league. Players are added and removed. Coaches change, new stars emerge, big injuries happen, and players some times regress. This year is the perfect example to why their 2014 teams may be vastly better than their 2015 versions.
Last year the AFC West had a strong Denver team and 2 very good teams in KC and SD that just missed the playoffs, not to mention the always dangerous (to us) Oakland Raiders. In the NFC, the Western Division was the strongest with the most wins in the conference. Arizona started off incredibly hot until Palmer was sidelined with injury, and Seattle showed they were a Superbowl team by fighting off early season adversity to not only win their division, but to make the Superbowl. San Franscisco took a step back, but they are still talented on both sides of the ball, and the improving Rams still had 6 wins. Winning the division meant we also had to play New England and Indy, as well as our own division which featured 2 more playoff teams in Baltimore and Cinci. My how times have changed.
This year the Patriots and Denver are still strong. Arizona is again starting hot, but SF and Seattle are not their former selves. The Rams are improving, but they are still a couple offensive players away from being a playoff contender. Indi is a 500 team and doesn't look like they can win any other division in football, except for the one they're currently in. The rest of the AFC West us sub 500 and doesn't look that promising (aside from San Diego, who I think could still make a run).
So our current strength of schedule is a bit different. 6 games in, I will evaluate it and give my thoughts:
1. NE 5-0 - They are who we thought they were. Especially with a fully ego-inflated QB coming off a big win vs the NFL. Though at home, for their 2014 crowning, and with a pumped-up Brady, we were still in the game.
2. SF 2-4 - Took a huge step back. The QB is regressing, and the defense, that was a strength, is now a joke. This team is a far cry from their 8-8 season last year, and I expect them to be under 6 wins this season.
3. STL 2-3 - This is a team on the rise with what might be the most dangerous pass rush in the league (just ask Ben's knee). Though only a half game ahead of San Fran, the rams are showing promise and should be formidable moving forward.
4. BAL 1-5 - Nothing gives me more pleasure to see the Ravens fall out of the sky the way they have. Flacco has regressed, and that team did nothing to replace the talent it lost this past season. Suggs injury doesn't help that secondary, who much like ours, is very vulnerable without pressure. The only thing that hurts is to see a 1 in the win column and know it was us. Too bad we didn't have Boz a few weeks earlier...
5. SD 2-4 - This is a talented team. They have a great offense that can generate points, and they also have a pretty good defense. Why aren't they winning? Well they seem to have trouble against teams with a winning record. Cinci, GB, Pit, and Min have all beaten the Bolts. Good thing for them Denver is the only team they face the rest of the year with a winning record. It wouldn't surprise me if they finish the season 8-2 with the talent they have. We were lucky to get that win in SD with Vick no matter how you slice it.
6. ARI 4-2 - They are an excellent team. Stout, playmaking defense paired with an explosive offense. This team is a Superbowl contender, yet somehow the injury plagued Steelers on their 3rd QB gutted out a convincing win behind their improving defense. I fully expect Arizona to win their division (if Palmer's knee cooperates) and contend for a first round bye in the NFC.
Moving Forward:
7. KC 1-5 - KC lost their top weapon in Jamal Charles for the year. Their defense regressed and their offense can't seem to score. This team will not come anywhere near their 9-7 mark from last year. I say they top out at 3 wins.
8. CIN 6-0 - Who would have seen this coming? Not only are they undefeated, but they gutted out some nice comeback wins against the Ravens, Seahawks and Chargers. Still, their success will only be validated if they can prove they can beat the Steelers.
9. OAK 2-3 - The Raiders are under 500, where they always seem to be each year. No matter how bad they are, they always seem to give our team fits. This season I am a bit more confident playing them at home, and with our improving defense. Still I expect them to be better than their 3 wins last year (hopefully one of them won't be against us).
10. CLE 2-4 - I am amazed how a team can consistently screw up, year, after year, after year. This team has no QB consistency, their front office makes terrible decisions, and the fans still go to see this team play what I can only refer to as: Cleveland Football week after week. The D is improving and is their only bright spot, but this team will not beat us without another 8 fumble performance. Cleveland has officially been upgraded from a dumpster fire to a tire fire, since it seems to burn for years with no end in sight. At least they wrote Cleveland on their jerseys and Browns on their pants so they won't be confused with some college team they seem to play like.
11. SEA 2-4 - This was supposed to be one of the toughest games on the schedule, and now is looking quite winnable. I don't see them returning to the superbowl let alone making the playoffs this year.
12. IND 3-3 - All I can say is Bring em on! Luck will still make plays, and get their team a division win, but only because Houston, Jacksonville, and the Titans are pitiful. Here's an instance where 8-8 can get you a division crown, but it's much easier to get to 8-8 when 6 of your wins are against your division. This team will not make the AFCC game again this season.
13. DEN 6-0 - This team is the most confusing in football. Their defense is elite. They're making plays all over the field and have 17 turnovers! 17 in 6 weeks!! It's no shock that they lead the league in plus minus (tied with us at +6). The Shock is Manning is leading the league in interceptions with TEN! Manning is still proving he can close at the end of games, but with that defense, I wouldn't be surprised if they were 6-0 with Tebow still as their QB. At least Tebow didn't turn the ball over at that clip. They are a strong team and a contender for the AFC, but I for one have always pointed to Manning's poor performance outdoors in Dec/Jan. With the way he regressed down the stretch last year, I expect the same this year. Playing them at home in December is playing Denver at the right time of the year to earn a victory.
The Steelers still have a lot of injury concerns, and the secondary has to improve, if they want to make a run this season. With the defense improving each week, I'm hoping that trend will continue. Looking at our record, and if Ben comes back and plays to the level we're used to. This team has a chance to win 8 games down the stretch. I think 7 will get them in the playoffs, and 6 still gives them a chance at the playoffs. To win the division 8-2 is a must and they probably need to sweep Cinci. Otherwise, the Bengals will probably win the division with a series split and a better divisional record. Still 10-12 wins is a better record than most Steelers fans anticipated when we saw that 'formidable' preseason strength of schedule ranking.
My problem has always been with people saying this WILL happen or this CAN'T happen because STATISTICS. As we've seen this season, not only is our own team bucking their own previous season's statistical trend of terrible defense and high powered offense with an opportunistic defense and a conservative offense, but our opponents are not the juggernaut they were made out to be before the season started. I will agree that trends can be inferred through statistical performance, but those trends are never absolute.
At no time this season can the 2015 Steelers play any of the 2014 opponents with their strength of schedule. Each year there is flux in the league. Players are added and removed. Coaches change, new stars emerge, big injuries happen, and players some times regress. This year is the perfect example to why their 2014 teams may be vastly better than their 2015 versions.
Last year the AFC West had a strong Denver team and 2 very good teams in KC and SD that just missed the playoffs, not to mention the always dangerous (to us) Oakland Raiders. In the NFC, the Western Division was the strongest with the most wins in the conference. Arizona started off incredibly hot until Palmer was sidelined with injury, and Seattle showed they were a Superbowl team by fighting off early season adversity to not only win their division, but to make the Superbowl. San Franscisco took a step back, but they are still talented on both sides of the ball, and the improving Rams still had 6 wins. Winning the division meant we also had to play New England and Indy, as well as our own division which featured 2 more playoff teams in Baltimore and Cinci. My how times have changed.
This year the Patriots and Denver are still strong. Arizona is again starting hot, but SF and Seattle are not their former selves. The Rams are improving, but they are still a couple offensive players away from being a playoff contender. Indi is a 500 team and doesn't look like they can win any other division in football, except for the one they're currently in. The rest of the AFC West us sub 500 and doesn't look that promising (aside from San Diego, who I think could still make a run).
So our current strength of schedule is a bit different. 6 games in, I will evaluate it and give my thoughts:
1. NE 5-0 - They are who we thought they were. Especially with a fully ego-inflated QB coming off a big win vs the NFL. Though at home, for their 2014 crowning, and with a pumped-up Brady, we were still in the game.
2. SF 2-4 - Took a huge step back. The QB is regressing, and the defense, that was a strength, is now a joke. This team is a far cry from their 8-8 season last year, and I expect them to be under 6 wins this season.
3. STL 2-3 - This is a team on the rise with what might be the most dangerous pass rush in the league (just ask Ben's knee). Though only a half game ahead of San Fran, the rams are showing promise and should be formidable moving forward.
4. BAL 1-5 - Nothing gives me more pleasure to see the Ravens fall out of the sky the way they have. Flacco has regressed, and that team did nothing to replace the talent it lost this past season. Suggs injury doesn't help that secondary, who much like ours, is very vulnerable without pressure. The only thing that hurts is to see a 1 in the win column and know it was us. Too bad we didn't have Boz a few weeks earlier...
5. SD 2-4 - This is a talented team. They have a great offense that can generate points, and they also have a pretty good defense. Why aren't they winning? Well they seem to have trouble against teams with a winning record. Cinci, GB, Pit, and Min have all beaten the Bolts. Good thing for them Denver is the only team they face the rest of the year with a winning record. It wouldn't surprise me if they finish the season 8-2 with the talent they have. We were lucky to get that win in SD with Vick no matter how you slice it.
6. ARI 4-2 - They are an excellent team. Stout, playmaking defense paired with an explosive offense. This team is a Superbowl contender, yet somehow the injury plagued Steelers on their 3rd QB gutted out a convincing win behind their improving defense. I fully expect Arizona to win their division (if Palmer's knee cooperates) and contend for a first round bye in the NFC.
Moving Forward:
7. KC 1-5 - KC lost their top weapon in Jamal Charles for the year. Their defense regressed and their offense can't seem to score. This team will not come anywhere near their 9-7 mark from last year. I say they top out at 3 wins.
8. CIN 6-0 - Who would have seen this coming? Not only are they undefeated, but they gutted out some nice comeback wins against the Ravens, Seahawks and Chargers. Still, their success will only be validated if they can prove they can beat the Steelers.
9. OAK 2-3 - The Raiders are under 500, where they always seem to be each year. No matter how bad they are, they always seem to give our team fits. This season I am a bit more confident playing them at home, and with our improving defense. Still I expect them to be better than their 3 wins last year (hopefully one of them won't be against us).
10. CLE 2-4 - I am amazed how a team can consistently screw up, year, after year, after year. This team has no QB consistency, their front office makes terrible decisions, and the fans still go to see this team play what I can only refer to as: Cleveland Football week after week. The D is improving and is their only bright spot, but this team will not beat us without another 8 fumble performance. Cleveland has officially been upgraded from a dumpster fire to a tire fire, since it seems to burn for years with no end in sight. At least they wrote Cleveland on their jerseys and Browns on their pants so they won't be confused with some college team they seem to play like.
11. SEA 2-4 - This was supposed to be one of the toughest games on the schedule, and now is looking quite winnable. I don't see them returning to the superbowl let alone making the playoffs this year.
12. IND 3-3 - All I can say is Bring em on! Luck will still make plays, and get their team a division win, but only because Houston, Jacksonville, and the Titans are pitiful. Here's an instance where 8-8 can get you a division crown, but it's much easier to get to 8-8 when 6 of your wins are against your division. This team will not make the AFCC game again this season.
13. DEN 6-0 - This team is the most confusing in football. Their defense is elite. They're making plays all over the field and have 17 turnovers! 17 in 6 weeks!! It's no shock that they lead the league in plus minus (tied with us at +6). The Shock is Manning is leading the league in interceptions with TEN! Manning is still proving he can close at the end of games, but with that defense, I wouldn't be surprised if they were 6-0 with Tebow still as their QB. At least Tebow didn't turn the ball over at that clip. They are a strong team and a contender for the AFC, but I for one have always pointed to Manning's poor performance outdoors in Dec/Jan. With the way he regressed down the stretch last year, I expect the same this year. Playing them at home in December is playing Denver at the right time of the year to earn a victory.
The Steelers still have a lot of injury concerns, and the secondary has to improve, if they want to make a run this season. With the defense improving each week, I'm hoping that trend will continue. Looking at our record, and if Ben comes back and plays to the level we're used to. This team has a chance to win 8 games down the stretch. I think 7 will get them in the playoffs, and 6 still gives them a chance at the playoffs. To win the division 8-2 is a must and they probably need to sweep Cinci. Otherwise, the Bengals will probably win the division with a series split and a better divisional record. Still 10-12 wins is a better record than most Steelers fans anticipated when we saw that 'formidable' preseason strength of schedule ranking.
