Going for it on 4th down

[tapeANaspirin2it]

In the past coaches punted too often. Now some of them go for it too often. If punting all the time is cowardly, then going for it all the time is reckless and bound to cost you a game at some point. Imagine losing in the playoffs because you went for it on 4th and 2 from your own 30 in the 4th quarter.

You need to take the type of game into account. If the game is 17-14 in the 4th, then you better punt. If it's 24-21 in the 3rd then you should lean towards going for it because defense can't be trusted.

Analytics is made for regular season baseball because there's so many games. The odds will work. Football has so few games, and within each game, there are a handful of big decisions. One risk backfiring could cost you a game and that costs a season, so I don't think you can blindly go by the numbers in football.

People will say they'd rather go out swinging. I wonder if most would still feel that way if their team's last offensive play in a playoff loss was an incomplete pass up by 1 point on 4th and 3 at the 50 and the opponent then kicked the winning FG as time expired 5 plays later.

Campbell does trust his players but he also makes some super risky calls that are bound to cost him a big game at some point.

 

[Punxsutawney]

Remember when going for 2 was the rage with the Steelers when they moved the PAT back?
Of course, that was when the Steelers were scoring touchdowns.

This is an important thing to bring up as it suggests Tomlin would perhaps join the broader trend of 4th downs attempts around the league if he had any confidence in the offense.

He probably went for two a little too much during the "killer B" era, but it did show a more aggressive side to him when he had a great offense to work with.

It's in no way making an excuse for Tomlin currently, as his influence is all over the offense, from the scheme to the selection and development of the players.

I'm just not sure we really want this Steelers offense taking more chances on 4th and short situations, especially with the OL playing the way it is.

 

[Punxsutawney]

Campbell does trust his players but he also makes some super risky calls that are bound to cost him a big game at some point.

They already have.

Teams probably should attempt 4th downs more often than they have traditionally, but as you said, the flow and context of any given game need to be taken into account.

It's foolish to think the reward always outweighs the risks in those situations

Coaches can definitely over do it, as the previous coach of the Chargers Brandon Staley was notorious for it, being part of the reason he ended up getting canned.

 

[Steeltime]

Dan has balls and faith in his players, going for it on 4th down. But, how did that work out for him a couple years ago in the NFC championship game? Had he taken the points, Detroit would have faced KC instead of San Fran. Would he do that again, or does that haunt him to this day?

His team was in the NFC Championship game due in very large part to his aggressive coaching. Also, his defense was absolutely decimated with injuries in the game so he had zero confidence they could stop the 49ers. Zero.

And he was right. So he trusted the same offense that had converted all season to convert in the championship game.

Would I be miffed if Mike "Live in Your Fears" Tomlin went for it twice on 4th down in the AFC Championship game and failed to convert? You're joking, right? If Tomlin makes it to another AFC Championship game, my shock would prevent me from any emotional outpouring.

 

[Superman]

Here's my reply: We KNOW for an absolute fact, a 100% guarantee, that the current approach will not bring the team a SB ring. So it's not like going for it on 4th down is "risking" the #1 seed or a SB berth.

Yes, I would prefer they go for it on 4th down with Aman Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff, and Jahmyr Gibbs. They don't have those guys so they need to see what they get from Rodgers, Metcalf and Warren.

What do they have to lose? Seriously asking, exactly what would they be "risking"?

so why not punt on 1st? that would certainly confuse the other team.

 

[Steeltime]

so why not punt on 1st? that would certainly confuse the other team.

Man, I hope Tomlin does not frequent this site.

 

[Drink IRON City]

I get the idea.....safe play on 3rd go for it on fourth. I tend to think risk it on third make it or punt on 4th.

“Our success rate on 4th and 2, would be the same or slightly less as it is on a 3rd and 2.”

“I‘M compensated well to make those kind of decisions” said Mike Tomlin.

It stands to reason as they would get two tries at 2 yards.



Salute the nation

 

[Steeltime]

“Our success rate on 4th and 2, would be the same or slightly less as it is on a 3rd and 2.”

“I‘M compensated well to make those kind of decisions” said Mike Tomlin.

It stands to reason as they would get two tries at 2 yards.



Salute the nation

"You're ignoring the fact that the offense would lose 11 yards due to the sack on the 3rd and 2 play where we send all four receivers on fly patterns to confuse the defense and rely on our offensive line to contain the pass rush. You need to work more above the neck. Obviously."
- Coach Tomlin

 

[Drink IRON City]

"You're ignoring the fact that the offense would lose 11 yards due to the sack on the 3rd and 2 play where we send all four receivers on fly patterns to confuse the defense and rely on our offensive line to contain the pass rush. You need to work more above the neck. Obviously."
- Coach Tomlin

“I accredit your ability to be Helmet side out” : Coach tomlin



Salute the nation

 

[Steeltime]

“I accredit your ability to be Helmet side out” : Coach tomlin

Salute the nation

If you will, in terms of schematic situations developing, obviously.

 

[Superman]

If you will, in terms of schematic situations developing, obviously.

"Punting on second down, while highly unusual and quite suspect, when the defense is ill-prepared for such an endeavor, would likely yield us a high percentage that the return does not yield a large amount of yardage, thereby pushing the opposition's offense into a shell where our superior defense - led by me, Super Bowl Winning Head Coach Michael Vincent Lombardi Tomin, the third coach in the history of the Pittsburgh Steelers - would thusly hold the offense to a 17-play 99-yard scoring drive, thus showing their full playbook that we can then calcumbrate on and seize for the next series of offense and defense if you will to allow us to play subpar above the neck to the best of our pedigree that is lacking in fortitude to do the things football players do on the field of football."

Mike Tomlin, probably

 

[Superman]

< submits application to be the 4th coach in the history of the Pittsburgh Steelers >

 

[slashsteel]

< submits application to be the 4th coach in the history of the Pittsburgh Steelers >

Uhuh do you have any snazzy cliche’s? Are you willing to live in your fears? Is the only X and O’s that you know come in Alphabet soup?

We have strict perimeters around here obviously. The job entails a certain pedigree if you will.

Yinz will need to spend long hours in the lab while subsequently painting the barn..but not with a flat brush. Every piece of grass will have to be examined, no rock left unturned. You will have to be willing to cosmetically cut off your eyelids, so that your blinker is excommunicado. You will need an empty shelf for participation trophies displayed in yinz living room for all guests to see and admire.

I have spoken my peace and counted to three.

 

[Steeltime]

Uhuh do you have any snazzy cliche’s?

Supe submitted his resume in post #36, which is Bettis' number if you will. His resume seals the deal. He IS the 4th coach in the history of the 83 years of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

 

[Superman]

Supe submitted his resume in post #36, which is Bettis' number if you will. His resume seals the deal. He IS the 4th coach in the history of the 83 years of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

my first hire will be Ark. his mastery of maff aside, he'll be the OC.

aint no one more offensive than Ark. NO ONE.

 

[Drink IRON City]

Uhuh do you have any snazzy cliche’s? Are you willing to live in your fears? Is the only X and O’s that you know come in Alphabet soup?

We have strict perimeters around here obviously. The job entails a certain pedigree if you will.

Yinz will need to spend long hours in the lab while subsequently painting the barn..but not with a flat brush. Every piece of grass will have to be examined, no rock left unturned. You will have to be willing to cosmetically cut off your eyelids, so that your blinker is excommunicado. You will need an empty shelf for participation trophies displayed in yinz living room for all guests to see and admire.

I have spoken my peace and counted to three.

If he has to have all that sheeeet, he can keep walkiN.

We want the opposite of that, like Lombardi trophy cases / actual game planning / x’s n O’s experience / well……..

YOU know, about everything that Tomlin is not……….

Even at all this carousel of want, Supe would be prime candidate to date………… (a friend told me)




Salute the nation

 

[SteveA]

You’re seeing an evolution in football on fourth down plays to score more points just like the three-point play revolutionized basketball

Think about it you only have to average 2 1/2 yards per down to get a first down…

Even if you decided to run Warren every down with his measly 3.1 yards per carry, he would get you a first down consistently in theory

 

[stillwright]

You’re seeing an evolution in football on fourth down plays to score more points just like the three-point play revolutionized basketball

Think about it you only have to average 2 1/2 yards per down to get a first down…

Even if you decided to run Warren every down with his measly 3.1 yards per carry, he would get you a first down consistently in theory

Yep...in theory we would/should be unstoppable!!!!!!

 

[Quick Draw]

You’re seeing an evolution in football on fourth down plays to score more points just like the three-point play revolutionized basketball

Think about it you only have to average 2 1/2 yards per down to get a first down…

Even if you decided to run Warren every down with his measly 3.1 yards per carry, he would get you a first down consistently in theory

That's a lot of words to describe "3 yds & a cloud of dust", which is as old as the game itself. Hardly some revolutionary offensive concept.

 

[stillwright]

So we had 2 cases in the fourth where Tomlin did or didn't go for it on 4th down. I was fine with the punt at the 40 yard line with a half yard to go. That said. I would have kicked the FG to go up by 13. The fact that we were only up 3 instead 6 impacted the decision to punt. Also a few TOs Tomlin called at odd moments. Well I believe they were odd. Not having any left at the end we had to make quick decisions (which we didn't) where a TO would have went a very long way.

 

[Omar10213245]

"Super Bowl Winning Mister Head Coach Michael Vincent Lombardi Tomlin is stifling the offense so as to not give away his super top secret offensive plays to the opposition to prepare for when the rubber meets the road and we have to win a game to preserve the integrity of that we hold dearly. In this matter and function, it is best to prepare for the best and deliver the worst, which is what we do since we obviously have the intellect below the neck to absorb the quality of play between the ears that our storied franchise has devolved to tell. As such, we are constructing an offense that might raise some eyebrows from those who are not in the know of what constitutes the morality and sportsmanship of the game that we are called upon to play on the field of football where football is played by those with said calling to play football on the field of football. Hamstringing an offense by pursuing an irrelevant amount of yards that would preclude our ability to obtain by other measures then calls upon that same offense, composed by football players on the field of football with an abundance of exuberance and dedication crafted in our lab while overturning rocks and honking ducks, is irrespective of what we are attempting to accomplish as Pittsburgh Steelers."
/Third person Mike Tomlin, probably.

Bravo!! Bravoo!!! It's just so, so...so Tomlin!!! *weeps unabashedly*

 

[Drink IRON City]

Yep...in theory we would/should be unstoppable!!!!!!

In theory, Tomlin is full of ****………..



Salute the nation

 

[Fiji Mariner]

On the going for it on fourth down topic:

One thing revealed in Dublin was a tush push variant that seemed pretty damn effective…so effective that it only required 10 players as the QB simply stood in the backfield signaling first down.

If this play isn’t brought into the short yardage arsenal Tomlin needs the stupid slapped right off his face.

Run this damn play on short yardage until
It doesn’t work as the other short yardage cute crap tried in the past has yielded absolutely abysmal results.

Keep it simple stupid!!!

Think it was baby Heyward as the ball handler with Gainwell flanking his left and Mount Washington to his right with the primary shove in the back role on the play.

At any rate something finally worked in short yardage and it only took 10 players! Let’s see if teams can actually stop this play. It would give baby Heyward a useful role on game-day and may actually make going for it on 4th and short a very high probability success rate play. Note for the mediocre one: It’s also ok to do this on 3rd and short!!!

Maybe the Vikings just weren’t ready for the Mediocre one to do something intelligent, but let’s give this a repeat performance and see if we haven’t just found a play that may be an answer.

The surge the three interior OL got when tasked with a simple road grade/bull doze forward task also makes ya wonder what they could do if this tactic were employed on other downs over the hand slap Meyer teaches…baby steps though, one solution at a time.

 

[Troglodyte]

Two things:

Possession is the best defense of all time, it’s not even close.

With today’s rules favoring the passing game and the advances in the passing game, field position is overrated.

 

[madinsomniac]

There's a certain ring to this @Bad Bunny guy's posts.

He is a rascally rabbit...