I don't understand how a guy with 27 fumbles (11 lost) over his career "takes tremendous care of the football"....
I mean of course he's not throwing INT. The guys before Mariota threw 7, 9 and 7 INT's in Chip Kelly's system as well (2009-2011).
You wish there was an Andrew Luck in every draft but you often get guys with warts. Even the good guys in the pros have warts except for a very special few.
I like Winston on the field. He is playing NFL football right now. He is reading defense, makes progressions, pulls the ball down, moves in the pocket to buy time and has a very decent arm with excellent zip and above average accuracy. Some throws he makes are BETTER than the average NFL guy. He throws INT's because he actually throws the ball 15+ yards downfield and isn't' afraid to trust his arm into tight windows. Matt Ryan had a ton of INT's too his last year in college and he's become an efficient "protector" of the football at the next level (career 2.3% INT). And that's comparing a SENIOR Ryan vs. a SOPHOMORE Winston.
Scouting Winston is easy on the field. He has it. He can play at the next level. And while the off-field issues are important, you have to cross the "can he play" bridge first. This isn't Russell or Leaf or George or Cutler. Winston has never had an issue being a leader between the lines. His teammates don't think he's an *******. If anything his persona is more comparable to Cam Newton who can rub people the wrong way but doesn't seem to have any real impact in the locker room or on the field.
Mariota is a completely different boat. There are PLENTY of questions about his game on film that might or might not translate to the NFL. He throws too many passes close to the line of scrimmage. His reads are quick, safe and have to be wide open to pull the trigger. There is very little timing in the route combinations. There is little to no 3-step or 5-step drops. He doesn't audible or use a hard count. He is rarely under center.
What he does exceptionally well is what Russell Wilson does well. He is a game manager that understands the threat of his running ability to generate open looks in the pass game. He can not 5-step drop and throw an NFL out route. He can do a 5 step drop, make a quick decisive decision about the primary or secondary play call (probably made pre-snap) and then improvise successful plays.
The issue I have is I still don't know how good Russell Wilson really is. We're talking about a guy who had almost ZERO completions in a whole half of the Super Bowl. Wilson can disappear at times when he makes consecutive, traditional throws from the pocket. I think Mariota will do the same thing. There will be times if the running game is struggling, if down and distance aren't fortunate and teams do a good job of containment that Mariota will do a traditional 5-step drop, throw the ball and it will look like ****. I mean shaking your head "What the hell was that???!!!" type moments. He might be too quick on the trigger. He might not look in time with his receivers. He might pull the ball down and run to no where.
All I see is Russell Wilson when I watch Mariota. And I would argue Wilson probably has the better, more natural over-the-top throwing motion that lends itself to better accuracy than Mariota.
The world is in love with Russell Wilson right now. But he's not exactly "typical", so expecting other non-typical guys to be him (even when they look like him on film) is a hard thing for me to bank on.
