The D: then and now

[POP]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...elers-defense-poised-to-drive-super-bowl-push

Go to point 2.

When Hall of Fame inductee and zone-blitz originator Dick LeBeau "resigned" from the Steelers following the 2014 season, most observers didn't expect radical changes from new defensive coordinator Keith Butler, based on the team's unprecedented defensive dominance in the previous system. (From 2004 to 2014, Pittsburgh fielded the No. 1 overall defense five times and led the NFL in scoring defense four times.) The team's exotic zone-blitz system terrorized opponents for more than a decade, and the masterful orchestration of the "organized chaos" made the Steelers' defense one of the most challenging units to face. However, the intricate system featured a lengthy call sheet (the Steelers reportedly had as many as 70 defensive calls in the game plan each week) and a series of checks or adjustments that made it difficult for younger players to absorb it early in their careers. Thus, the Steelers' defense was littered with "graybeards" in prominent roles, due to the confidence and trust LeBeau had in his veteran players.

I made all the above point BEFORE LeBea was "retired" and lots of fans argued with me that this was not the case. Now, it is stated "matter-of-factly."

Most of us bemoaned our D last year, but it wasn't completely awful. They were 5th against the rush, and that is solid.

Under Butler, the Steelers tweaked the defensive scheme to make it easier for young players to get onto the field. The volume of the playbook was scaled back dramatically to reduce mental errors and allow players to play "fast and free" on the perimeter. In addition, the Steelers added some "one-gap" fronts to the game plan to enable the defensive line to make plays instead of eating up blocks at the point of attack. With the defensive line free to penetrate and create disruption, the Steelers' linebackers were allowed to aggressively pursue ball carriers on bounces or cutbacks caused by penetration. As a result, the Steelers held opponents to 91.2 rushing yards per game (fifth-best in the NFL) and a measly 3.8 yards per carry.

As for passing defense, the Steelers ranked near the bottom of the NFL in yards allowed but finished third in sacks (48) and near the top of the charts in takeaways (30). While some critics have taken the defense to task for its poor overall ranking against the pass, astute observers understand that the Steelers' explosive offense forces opponents into "catch-up" mode, which results in more pass attempts (the Steelers faced 39.1 pass attempts per game, sixth most in the NFL). Despite facing a barrage of throws, the defense only allowed 52 completions of at least 20 yards (tied for 13th least) and tallied 17 interceptions (tied for sixth most).

I have a suspicion we are going to be pleasantly surprised by our D this year. Even if the rookies barely contribute (and I am leaning that way) we could see an overall improvement. And with our O, a "pretty good" D could get us there.

Even with so many injuries, we had the upcoming Super Bowl winners on the ropes. We should be better than that team, all things considered.

 

[MTC]

You're talking about the Steelers right?

 

[MTC]

Lol. But do agree PoP. The defense should be a lot better. I wanna see something similar to Seattles D back in 2012/2013. Thats a big thing to ask for. But like Seattle in those two good years. The Steelers have some fast athletes on the defensive side of the ball. Combined with veteran leadership I dont see no reason not to think these guys can get it done. Secondary is full of question marks given nobody really wows per name. Add in the Steelers have some rookies as well. It'll be fun

 

[SteelChip]

This secondary will need time to ripen on the vine, so to speak. With the leftover starters considered average and a whole crew of fast rooks in the wing, I expect to see some games this year that make me wanna pull my hair out. But Lord willing, those yougin's will be fast learners. It would be great to see them start spot duty by mid-season and have a good handle on the job by playoff time.

I'm also lookin' forwar to seein' guys like Dangerfield, Golson and Grant show some signs that they were payin' attention last year. Not to mention, Thomas...step up or move on, we got people in line over here.

 

[SteelerSask2]

Key has always been turnovers. With an offense like this they need the turnovers. I agree with the author. Lebears defense was perfect with the right players. But it was **** without.

 

[Coach]

The defense has taken a huge step backward. It's a gradual process of poor drafting, bad use of free agency decisions, and star players aging, who for the most part have not been adequately replaced.

Here's the 2010 season defense, which marks the last time the Steelers made the super bowl

DL: Keisel, Hampton, Smith
LB: Worilds, Farrior, Timmons, Harrison
DB: Taylor, Clark, Polamalu, Gay.

Let's fast forward to 2016 to the projected starters

DL: Heyward, McCullers, Tuitt
LB: J. Jones, Shazier, Timmons, Dupree
DB: Gay, Golden, Mitchell, Cockrell.


A few quick takeaways. Only Heyward would start for sure on the 2010 defense. Gay's status as the starter remains unchanged.

The glass half full argument is there are several rookies and 2nd years players which can develop and upgrade us. Burns, Smith, Golson, Grant, etc...

The glass half empty side shows the 2015 defense faced seven backup quarterbacks, and finished 29th overall vs the pass. Had we played say only 3 backup quarterbacks, the entire unit would have been ranked lower in many areas.

 

[deljzc]

I agree there are some factors that go into 2015 analysis that we all need to be wary about.

First, the quality of quarterbacks we saw last season was pretty bad. Here they are ranked by their DQR score in the games against us (the number in parenthesis is the week/game of the season) .

R. Wilson (11) - 154.6
T. Brady (1) - 132.8
A. Smith (7) - 112.6
P. Rivers (5) - 100.3
R. Mallet (15) - 99.7
C. Palmer (6) - 99.1
D. Carr (9) - 97.0

McCarron/Dalton (13) - 90.0
C. Kaepernick (2) - 82.2
J. Manziel (10) - 73.5

B. Osweiler (14) - 69.4
N. Foles (3) - 65.7
A. Dalton (8) - 61.0

J. Flacco (4) - 36.9
Hasselback/Whitehurst (12) - 26.0
A. Davis (16) - 23.9



Here are the projected starters and their DQR scores from last season we are scheduled to face (in order)

Cousins - 99.5
Dalton - 111.1
Bradford - 82.4
A. Smith - 93.3
NYJ (Assume Fitzpatrick) - 87.0
Tannehill - 81.4
Brady - 102.5
Flacco - 83.1
Romo - 71.3
Griffin - N/A
Luck - 66.2
Manning - 88.9
T. Taylor - 96.5
Dalton - 111.1
Flacco - 83.1
Griffin - N/A

 

[POP]

Comparing 2010 D to 2016?

1.) 2010 was statistically #1 vs. yards allowed, but that unit was starting to leak oil. Smith and Hampton were showing age, Troy was spent and picked on the whole Super Bowl.

2.) I think, by this year, some of our young players will surpass the value of some of the 2010 crew, specifically Dupree over Worilds, Tuitt over either DE, Shazier over Farrior. By this year, it could look like a wash between the two teams.

3.) Our offense is a juggernaut compared to 2010. We don't need a #1 D to win a ring.

 

[Coach]

deljzc I agree there are some factors that go into 2015 analysis that we all need to be wary about.

First, the quality of quarterbacks we saw last season was pretty bad. Here they are ranked by their DQR score in the games against us (the number in parenthesis is the week/game of the season) .

R. Wilson (11) - 154.6
T. Brady (1) - 132.8
A. Smith (7) - 112.6
P. Rivers (5) - 100.3
R. Mallet (15) - 99.7
C. Palmer (6) - 99.1
D. Carr (9) - 97.0

McCarron/Dalton (13) - 90.0

Excellent post! I put the losses in red, and the wins in green vs the QB's who rated over 90. While we won three of these games, they were close. 3 for 8 vs QB's over 90 rating.

In 2015 we played seven door matt type of QB's who rate under 75. Next season we only play one, and he'll rate much higher ( Luck ). Yikes.

Next season we play 6 QB's that rate in the 90's.

 

[POP]

Excellent post! I put the losses in red, and the wins in green vs the QB's who rated over 90. While we won three of these games, they were close. 3 for 8 vs QB's over 90 rating.

In 2015 we played seven door matt type of QB's who rate under 75. Next season we only play one, and he'll rate much higher ( Luck ). Yikes.

Next season we play 5 QB's that rate in the 90's.

Carr dropped 35 points on us, but we scored 38. Can't count on that every week.

 

[Bigappleyinzer]

Last year we played against: Carson, Brady and Wilson. That is #1, #3, #5 of PFF's top rated QB's of 2015. Hell- Dalton was rated #7, and Derek Carr was rated #8.

So please, explain to me again how we only played weak QB's last year....

 

[POP]

Last year we played against: Carson, Brady and Wilson. That is #1, #3, #5 of PFF's top rated QB's of 2015. Hell- Dalton was rated #7, and Derek Carr was rated #8.

So please, explain to me again how we only played weak QB's last year....

Coach never said that. I think his assertion was we played 7 games vs. really bad QBs. On the onset, it appears that we won't have that luxury again (barring injuries which we can't predict). Here are who he listed to play this year. There are very few terrible QBs this season, as it stands now.

Cousins - 99.5 - not all that greatly respected but he threw for 4,000 yards and 70% completion, and that was WITHOUT his deep threat (Jackson) for the majority of the season. I say they light us up for at least one long TD week 1.

Dalton - 111.1 - Had career season going before Tuitt broke his thumb.

Bradford - 82.4 - Fear him the least.

A. Smith - 93.3 - Beat us last season. Not sensational, but efficient.

NYJ (Assume Fitzpatrick) - 87.0 - Has weapons to hurt us.

Tannehill - 81.4 - Guy never ever impressed me.

Brady - 102.5
Flacco - 83.1
Romo - 71.3
----------
Above 3 are tough and will dice us up pretty good.

Griffin - N/A
Luck - 66.2
Manning - 88.9
T. Taylor - 96.5
Dalton - 111.1
Flacco - 83.1
Griffin - N/A
-------------
Of everyone we play, only a few games are scheduled to have as bad of QBs that we had 7 games of last year. RG3 shouldn't scare us - but who knows with Jackson mentoring him. Most QBs on the schedule are above average.

 

[MTC]

Excellent post! I put the losses in red, and the wins in green vs the QB's who rated over 90. While we won three of these games, they were close. 3 for 8 vs QB's over 90 rating.

In 2015 we played seven door matt type of QB's who rate under 75. Next season we only play one, and he'll rate much higher ( Luck ). Yikes.

Next season we play 6 QB's that rate in the 90's.

Pfft. Bring those QB's on

 

[SteelChip]

I think, by this year, some of our young players will surpass the value of some of the 2010 crew, specifically Dupree over Worilds, Tuitt over either DE, Shazier over Farrior. By this year, it could look like a wash between the two teams.

Your talkin' apples and oranges. LeBeau's defenses were complicated pieces of shifting priorities. They say that there were upwards of 20 different calls to make on each snap depending on what the offense did. That necessitated holding on to the vets too long because it took players years to get comfortable with what they had to do.

Butler changed that and took an axe to the playbook as far as the number of defenses they play and the amount of options available in each one. Now the playbook is more palatable for players to learn and be proficient in a shorter time frame. We also have a bonanza of young fast players to work with this year compared to anytime I can think of in the past.

Hopefully they have the mental capacity to learn the system Butler has put in and can react to plays instead of trying to remember what to do.

 

[deljzc]

Besides the quarterback difference projected for this season, what also really stood out as "outliers" of stats is red zone failures. I'm sure this goes hand-in-hand with quarterback play but I remind everyone again that our defense "forced" (and that's up for debate) 13 trips into the red zone that produced ZERO points last season. That is really abnormal. Particularly when we only had 2 failures in the red zone all season.

If you put the failures up to a more predictable level (say 5 each for and against) and then assume the remaining trips are split 50-50 as FG's and TD's... that's a net -55 point swing on a team that was +104 in point differential last season.

 

[POP]

Your talkin' apples and oranges. LeBeau's defenses were complicated pieces of shifting priorities. They say that there were upwards of 20 different calls to make on each snap depending on what the offense did. That necessitated holding on to the vets too long because it took players years to get comfortable with what they had to do.

Butler changed that and took an axe to the playbook as far as the number of defenses they play and the amount of options available in each one. Now the playbook is more palatable for players to learn and be proficient in a shorter time frame. We also have a bonanza of young fast players to work with this year compared to anytime I can think of in the past.

Hopefully they have the mental capacity to learn the system Butler has put in and can react to plays instead of trying to remember what to do.

I was hoping that Butler was going to simplify it. Thank God he did. We did have some decent speed around here on D in the past. That group of Woodson, Lloyd, Chad Brown, Lake, Greene wasn't too slow.

 

[Coach]

Last year we played against: Carson, Brady and Wilson. That is #1, #3, #5 of PFF's top rated QB's of 2015. Hell- Dalton was rated #7, and Derek Carr was rated #8.

So please, explain to me again how we only played weak QB's last year....

I think you are confusing what I said. We played 7 backup QB's that did not start the season. A very high number.

 

[SteelChip]

I was hoping that Butler was going to simplify it. Thank God he did. We did have some decent speed around here on D in the past. That group of Woodson, Lloyd, Chad Brown, Lake, Greene wasn't too slow.

That group was in the past all right, past the past in fact. You're showing your age Pop. We traversed from them to the Ricardo Colclough's, Nick Eason's and the Levon Kirkland's before moving back to speed.

Yeh I know, I'm being facetious....I'm just bored.

That bein' said, this group looks stacked to me...both sides of the ball. I look forward to the contest to name the final 53, it's gonna be a tough row to hoe with the talent we know we have, let alone those that show up in camp. Then I look forward to see if they can jell those talents into a winning team. Should be a sight to see but only time will tell.

 

[Coach]

Carr dropped 35 points on us, but we scored 38. Can't count on that every week.

Yes he did, please don;t remind me for how many yards Manziel passed against the defense.

I'm okay with Butler as the Defensive Coordinator. With a terrible secondary and a hot and cold pass rush, he had to play it safe more often than not.

The fact that we played so many bad QB's lead to a 10-6 record.

However, Butler is not in Dick Lebeau's class. Dick used to kill the bad QB's, and had the ability to fire up his players. The players, so I read had tremendous respect for Dick. I'm not saying Butler was disrespected. I'm saying the amount of respect LeBeua earned was special.