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Strength of Schedule. How much does it matter?

C

Coach

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Of the 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2014, only four of those teams had a strength of schedule over .500. That means the other eight playoff teams got into the postseason in due part to playing a weaker schedule.

After all was said and done, Dallas, Detroit, Houston and Pittsburgh played the four weakest schedules in 2014. Three of those teams made the playoffs and the one that didn't -- Houston -- finished with a winning record.

** Next year the Steelers play nine playoff teams, plus the Chiefs and Chargers who had winning records. **

Anyway, here's the 2015 strength of schedule for each NFL team (Combined 2014 record of all 16 opponents, combined winning percentage)

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 147-107-2, .579

2. Cincinnati Bengals: 144-112, .563

3. San Francisco 49ers: 143-112-1, .561

4. Seattle Seahawks: 142-112-2, .559

5. Arizona Cardinals:142-113-1, .557

6. St. Louis Rams: 141-114-1, .553

T-7. Oakland Raiders: 139-116-1, .545

T-7. Kansas City Chiefs: 139-116-1, .545

9. Cleveland Browns: 138-116-2, .543

10. Denver Broncos: 138-117-1, .541

11. Baltimore Ravens: 137-117-2, .539

12. Minnesota Vikings: 138-118, .539

13. Chicago Bears: 136-120, .531

14. Green Bay Packers: 135-120-1, .529

15. Detroit Lions: 135-121, .527

16. San Diego Chargers: 132-123-1, .518

17. Miami Dolphins: 126-130, .492

18. New York Jets: 125-131, .488

19. Buffalo Bills: 124-131-1, .486

T-20. Washington Redskins: 122-133-1, .478

T-20. New York Giants: 122-133-1, .478

22. New England Patriots: 122-134, .477

23. Philadelphia Eagles: 121-134-1, .475

24. Dallas Cowboys: 119-136-1, .467

25. Jacksonville Jaguars: 118-137-1, .463

26. Tennessee Titans: 111-144-1, .435

27. Carolina Panthers: 111-145, .434

28. New Orleans Saints: 109-145-2, .429

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 108-146-2, .425

30. Houston Texans: 106-148-2, .417

31. Indianapolis Colts: 106-149-1, .417

32. Atlanta Falcons: 104-150-2, .409

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...of-schedule-steelers-at-no-1-falcons-at-no-32
 
I'm more worried about this:

Games AT Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle and St. Louis. They don't play well outside of the eastern time zone.
 
Iron sharpens Iron... to be the best, you have to beat the best...

Bring em on!

I'm more scared of the cellar dwellers.
 
The quality of the QBs being faced is much more important to me. Strength of schedule just another stat that can lie (for example, our division beat up on a bunch of weaklings this past season --- the AFC South and NFC South --- that inflated our records which is why the NFC West teams rank so high in SOS).

We have to face good QBs like Luck, Brady, P. Manning, R. Wilson, P. Rivers etc.

A huge factor that's not in our favor is that we the first-place schedule next year. We face the Patriots and the Colts next season. The Ravens face the Dolphins and the Jags. The Bengals face the Texans and the Bills. That's a pretty significant disadvantage.
 
Hines57 said:
SOS is based on last year. Any of those teams have a bad year and the SOS goes down. There also is that old saying, iron sharpens iron. If our schedule is really that tough then it leaves us battle tested to make a deep run into the playoffs.

BTW the 08' Super Bowl team had the second highest regular season SOS. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/246191-superbowl-winners-strength-of-schedule
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Battle tested? Yes, but our margin for error is thin to make the playoffs. The good news is the Ravens and Bengals have a tough schedule too.
 
Hines57 said:
SOS is based on last year. Any of those teams have a bad year and the SOS goes down. There also is that old saying, iron sharpens iron. If our schedule is really that tough then it leaves us battle tested to make a deep run into the playoffs.

BTW the 08' Super Bowl team had the second highest regular season SOS. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/246191-superbowl-winners-strength-of-schedule
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I know that looks a little confusing. 2008 was the 2nd highest SOS ever in NFL history and the highest SOS for any team in 2008. That ended in a Superbowl championship.
 
Cope said:
I know that looks a little confusing. 2008 was the 2nd highest SOS ever in NFL history and the highest SOS for any team in 2008. That ended in a Superbowl championship.
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And I hope that's what this year's SOS does for us. Ends in #7
 
We will see what it is when we play the games. Someone already mentioned the games we play that are long distance trips and the team usually does not do well there. We will also play at least two games with out Bell and that will be a significant loss to the team. In looking at just those two factors we could loose all six of those games. Toss in the short week loss to a rested opponent on Thursday night and we are only one game away from magic mikes magic number.

If the strength of schedule does rear it's ugly head and slap us around we could be in for a really flat season if some major holes do not get filled via free agency and the draft. This year could be a real downer, but they have a silver lining. If we do have a major drop off we will likely really move up in the draft selection process and might find a way to fill some of those holes in the next draft that we miss this year. Salary cap does better and we could make a splash in free agency as well.

This looks like it will be one of those years where things are just tough all the way around and if the team does better than 8-8 under these circumstances they will have done a great job. This is like being the bum of the month going in to fight Tyson. You already know you are likely to loose hopefully you go down punching.
 
I remember looking at the brutal schedule in 2008. Saying how tough it was. The 08 team proved if you have the team, it doesn't matter what the schedule is. The schedule makes a difference when you are a marginal team hoping to make the playoffs. That is what we were last year. Depending on the growth of our defense I'm not sure what that means for us. Though for as long as I can remember, the steelers have always been more likely to play up to better opponents. Under Tomlin, the lesser opponents send us into fits of rage Sunday afternoons.
 
Different season, none of these teams are guaranteed to be successful in 2015 just because of their 2014 records. Denver for example is in decline and will likely lose Welker, Julius Thomas and other core FA's with Peyton declining. Some of these teams could look a lot different when we play them.
 
Also, before everyone starts to worry about the SOS, you have to keep in mind that our offense is now entering the elite level. We had a 2nd year RB and a second year WR starting with a rookie #3 WR. The line has an extra year to gel and with all that in mind we had the #1 QB, WR, and #2 RB statistically. If our defense improves to average or dare I say, above average, we have a chance next year to make a run.
 
I have no issue with SOS it is just luck of the draw and this year our luck sucks cause we have both the AFC and NFC West and they are both pretty good on paper and unlike the past our division is one of the best if not the best in football. My issue is that we are playing 2 West divisions and I think that is not fair, how does the NFL let this happen?
 
STEELERS R GR8 said:
I have no issue with SOS it is just luck of the draw and this year our luck sucks cause we have both the AFC and NFC West and they are both pretty good on paper and unlike the past our division is one of the best if not the best in football. My issue is that we are playing 2 West divisions and I think that is not fair, how does the NFL let this happen?[/QUOTE]

Clearly they dont think its unfair like you do?
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Omar10213245 said:
STEELERS R GR8 said:
I have no issue with SOS it is just luck of the draw and this year our luck sucks cause we have both the AFC and NFC West and they are both pretty good on paper and unlike the past our division is one of the best if not the best in football. My issue is that we are playing 2 West divisions and I think that is not fair, how does the NFL let this happen?[/QUOTE]

Clearly they dont think its unfair like you do?
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Thanks for your input.....
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9-7 here we come.....
 
STEELERS R GR8 said:
I have no issue with SOS it is just luck of the draw and this year our luck sucks cause we have both the AFC and NFC West and they are both pretty good on paper and unlike the past our division is one of the best if not the best in football. My issue is that we are playing 2 West divisions and I think that is not fair, how does the NFL let this happen?
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Since the chance of playing both west conferences in one season can only occur once every 12 years, I'd say it's a pretty fair system.
 
I think in this age of parity, so much changes every off-season that SOS doesn't mean very much. A lot of premier players move around through trades and FA, and who knows when a rookie or even an established player will have a phenomenal breakout year (like Alfred Morris a couple years ago - came from an insignificant football college as a 6th-round pick and proceeded to blow everyone's expectations out of the water in his rookie year; or Antonio Brown last year, putting up club-record receiving numbers after finally maturing into that #1 receiver role). Even the players that people think are a "known quantity" can have spectacularly good (or bad) years and lift up (or drag down) their team. There just isn't much room for "dynasty" teams any more.
 
Look lets be honest, we play down to the level of our competition. We play better teams, there's no playing down. You go hard or you get whipped. I like the SOS. This team will be battle tested.
 
Cope said:
Since the chance of playing both west conferences in one season can only occur once every 12 years, I'd say it's a pretty fair system.
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Cope I respect your opinion but I think any team that has to goes east to west or vice versa is bad. Yeah it may only happen once every 12 years but that imo is one to many times. I just think with how big the NFL is that they could avoid this, that's all.
 
STEELERS R GR8 said:
Cope I respect your opinion but I think any team that has to goes east to west or vice versa is bad. Yeah it may only happen once every 12 years but that imo is one to many times. I just think with how big the NFL is that they could avoid this, that's all.
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Since 2000 to present, can anyone tell us the record of the Steelers when they had to play games vs NFC west and a few AFC teams based in the west?
 
STEELERS R GR8 said:
Cope I respect your opinion but I think any team that has to goes east to west or vice versa is bad. Yeah it may only happen once every 12 years but that imo is one to many times. I just think with how big the NFL is that they could avoid this, that's all.
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And now with there being 3 London games a year, how long before there is analysis on what that does to teams that go across the pond in addition to all over the country throughout the season?
 
Coach said:
Since 2000 to present, can anyone tell us the record of the Steelers when they had to play games vs NFC west and a few AFC teams based in the west?
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All I know is we ******* SUCK when we play in Oakland.
 
Hines57 said:
All I know is we ******* SUCK when we play in Oakland.
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The Steelers have the following record vs west coast teams. This is for all games. I do not have the break down for how many games were on the road vs at home.

Oakland all time: 9-12
Seattle all time: 8-8
San Fran all time: 9-11
Denver all time: 7-14-1


This suggests we simply do not play well vs West coast teams. My hunch is our road record on the West coast in the past 15 years has been very poor. The only west coast team we have an edge on is San Diego. Here we are 21-7.
 
STEELERS R GR8 said:
Cope I respect your opinion but I think any team that has to goes east to west or vice versa is bad. Yeah it may only happen once every 12 years but that imo is one to many times. I just think with how big the NFL is that they could avoid this, that's all.
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I hear what you're saying. I couldn't imagine a way to avoid double Wests or Wests avoiding double Easts without significantly changing the fair schedule structure we have.

I do agree that it sucks, but honestly, we made out on the travel schedule this year.

For Western opponents, we have:

Home: SF, DEN, OAK, AZ
Away: KC, SD, STL, SEA

We lucked out with this schedule. We travel to the west coast twice this season. One being SD who we own, and one being Seattle who is a very strong team wherever they play. The other two 'west' trips are right on the Mississippi river, exactly one time zone over. For traveling purposes, facing 2 western conferences the same season, and only hitting the west coast twice, this is an ideal schedule.
 
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