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I've only just started playing around with the playoff scenario machine but so far it looks like if the Chargers beat the Ravens, then the Steelers game vs the Saints may not have any impact on their seeding.
The Ravens vs Chargers is Saturday so the steelers will know that outcome.
Working on some scenarios assuming the following,
Ravens lose to Chargers, beat Cleveland 9-7
Steelers lose to Saints, beat Cincy 9-6-1
That gives the Steelers the North crown and they are pretty well locked into the 4 seed.
To get the 2 seed, the steelers would need to win out, they would also need both the Texans and Pats to lose out.
Texans have Eagles and Jags. Possible they could go 0-2 because Eagles still have a shot at the playoffs and the Jags do have the talent to win. But it's unlikely because the Jags look to have quit on the season.
Pats have Bills and Jets. I could possibly see the Pats losing one of them but both? I just can't see that.
What about the 3 seed?
Looks like Steelers can get the 3 seed by going 2-0 then both the Pats and Texans going 1-1. But what does the 3 seed buy you over the 4 seed?
The 3 seeds will likely host the 6 seed Ravens or Colts
The 4 seed will certainly host the Chargers or Chiefs, whichever does not win the AFC West.
So that brings back that Ravens vs Chargers game. If Chargers win that game, then they have a shot at the 1 seed. Strange to say but Chargers and Chiefs are looking at either the 1 seed or the 5 seed.
Now, if the steelers are the 4 seed, it means a tougher wildcard game. But it would be a home game and it could set up an easier overall playoff road.
The Pats are looking at the 3 seed most likely. If the Ravens get that 6, then i think they beat the Pats. Their defense and run game could be too much for this Pats team. That means Pats eliminated and Ravens go to KC. Steelers then would go to the 2 seed Houston.
So from the 4 seed, the most likely road to me would look like
Chargers, @ Houston, @ KC
The 3 seed road probably looks like
Ravens/Colts, @ KC, @Hou or Chargers
Of course it's better to beat the Saints and get the best seed possible but just looking at possible outcomes, It looks to me like the Steelers are headed to the 4th seed so long as the beat the Bengals
The Ravens vs Chargers is Saturday so the steelers will know that outcome.
Working on some scenarios assuming the following,
Ravens lose to Chargers, beat Cleveland 9-7
Steelers lose to Saints, beat Cincy 9-6-1
That gives the Steelers the North crown and they are pretty well locked into the 4 seed.
To get the 2 seed, the steelers would need to win out, they would also need both the Texans and Pats to lose out.
Texans have Eagles and Jags. Possible they could go 0-2 because Eagles still have a shot at the playoffs and the Jags do have the talent to win. But it's unlikely because the Jags look to have quit on the season.
Pats have Bills and Jets. I could possibly see the Pats losing one of them but both? I just can't see that.
What about the 3 seed?
Looks like Steelers can get the 3 seed by going 2-0 then both the Pats and Texans going 1-1. But what does the 3 seed buy you over the 4 seed?
The 3 seeds will likely host the 6 seed Ravens or Colts
The 4 seed will certainly host the Chargers or Chiefs, whichever does not win the AFC West.
So that brings back that Ravens vs Chargers game. If Chargers win that game, then they have a shot at the 1 seed. Strange to say but Chargers and Chiefs are looking at either the 1 seed or the 5 seed.
Now, if the steelers are the 4 seed, it means a tougher wildcard game. But it would be a home game and it could set up an easier overall playoff road.
The Pats are looking at the 3 seed most likely. If the Ravens get that 6, then i think they beat the Pats. Their defense and run game could be too much for this Pats team. That means Pats eliminated and Ravens go to KC. Steelers then would go to the 2 seed Houston.
So from the 4 seed, the most likely road to me would look like
Chargers, @ Houston, @ KC
The 3 seed road probably looks like
Ravens/Colts, @ KC, @Hou or Chargers
Of course it's better to beat the Saints and get the best seed possible but just looking at possible outcomes, It looks to me like the Steelers are headed to the 4th seed so long as the beat the Bengals