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This is NOT a mock draft. I am not trying to guess what will happen, only do a draft that makes the most sense for all teams involved.
I sort of think of it as if I had ultimate say like ownership for each coach/GM group. If they present me with a few possible choices that could happen at each pick, I'm pushing them in the following directions:
1. Tampa Bay Jameis Winston, QB
I’m no fan of Lovie Smith and their last off-season was such a disaster I’d fire the whole front office. With those parameters the only real hope is praying Winston works enough to become the top-10 QB he’s capable of being and rebuild the defense. Even if that happens I think the Lovie era is a dead end.
2. San Diego (from Tennessee) Marcus Mariota, QB
TRADE (Philip Rivers + Pick #48 + Pick #153 for Pick #2 and Pick #66)
For a long time I anticipated a win-win deal with the Eagles for this spot, but as interest in Mariota continues to rise, the price to get there from #20 gets too rich for Chip Kelly’s blood. With a pending move to L.A. and Rivers entering $20 million/year 3rd contract territory, this seems like a great choice for everyone involved. Some pick swaps later in the draft give Tennessee some picks to help depth.
3. Jacksonville Amari Cooper, WR
After back-to-back 2nd round receivers and the Gerhart flop in free agency, the offense still struggled to a 30th DVOA ranking. I think Gus Bradley thinks he can make the defense work for a while but fixing the offense is going to take some talent to kick start Bortles. Cooper should be that weapon.
4. Oakland Leonard Williams, DT
New head coach Jack Del Rio loves that the best defensive player in this year’s draft falls to him at #4 and he rushes to the podium. Del Rio built his best defenses in Jacksonville on having plenty of beef up front and Williams along with newly signed Dan Williams and last year’s project pick Justin Ellis start that process.
5. New Orleans (from Washington) Dante Fowler Jr., OLB
TRADE (Pick #13 + Pick #44 + Pick #148 for Pick #5)
New Orleans makes a splash and uses some of its nine picks to aggressively move up and grab the surest edge defender in the draft. With question marks surrounding Ray and Gregory, what was once thought of as a deep edge rusher draft has turned into a crapshoot. Washington’s issues still come down to what RGIII will do with Jay Gruden and no one pick is going to change that. With last year’s picks of Trent Murphy and Jackson Jeffcoat at OLB and signing Terrance Knighton at NT, what Washington really needs is offensive line, which they will address at pick #13.
6. New York Jets Danny Shelton, DT/NT
With questions growing about the future of Muhammad Wilkerson, Todd Bowles picks a solid, safe pick in Danny Shelton to help shore up his defensive line rotation.
7. Chicago Kevin White, WR
While their top need is improving the defense for John Fox, you can’t ignore White as a talent to replace Brandon Marshall. His upside as a potential Larry Fitzgerald 2.0 is too good to pass up here.
8. Atlanta Vic Beasley, OLB/DE
New coach Dan Quinn has his work cut out for him on the front seven and he’s brought numerous camp bodies in to threaten jobs and push underperforming veterans. Beasley offers unique athleticism and pass rush that Quinn will use in his rotation system.
9. New York Giants Brandon Scherff, OL
A common selection among the mock draft community, I see no reason not to pair up the physical Scherff with a team that has a lot of holes and is starting to lack the physical edge it once used in playoff success. Scherff brings a bit of a nasty edge that the Giants’ offensive line has lacked.
10. St. Louis DeVante Parker, WR
The Rams’ success will solely depend on their QB output but the lack of elite weapons over the years has certainly not helped. Parker is viewed as a very good prospect with the size and catch radius the Rams receiving core sorely lacks.
11. San Francisco (from Minnesota) Trae Waynes, CB
TRADE (Pick #11 for Pick #15 and Pick #79)
A lot of mock drafts have Minnesota taking Waynes here but I don’t see that as a huge need after selecting Xavier Rhodes two years ago. Minnesota could use some depth and still try to target one of the elite running backs (Gurley/Gordon) if a Peterson Trade happens. San Francisco has a glaring hole at CB, a new defensive coach, and a couple extra picks in this draft. Waynes is the only CB without a lot of question marks and is worth a trade up.
12. Cleveland Breshad Perriman, WR
Cleveland could wait for a WR with their #19 pick, but decides instead to get the guy they want in Perriman. With elite speed and excellent tape, Perriman catapulted himself into a top-15 prospect and Cleveland desperately needs some juice at that position.
13. Washington (from New Orleans) Ereck Flowers, OT
Washington slides back, picks up a 2nd and 4th round pick and still get a very solid, physical tackle in Ereck Flowers to plug in immediately opposite Trent Williams. The Redskins’ offensive line was very poor last year and Gruden will like the size/length of Williams and his physicality in the run game.
14. Miami Marcus Peters, CB
After the run on WR’s and Miami’s limited ammunition to move up in the draft, Philbin settles on best player available and picks the talented Marcus Peters to add much needed depth to a CB journeyman group.
15. Minnesota Todd Gurley, RB
All signs are pointing to a divorce between the Vikings and Adrian Peterson. If that happens, Minnesota becomes very thin at the RB position and in desperation of a power back to protect the development of Teddy Bridgewater. With no one on the board worth a trade up, Minnesota picks Gurley a bit high (but not as high as #11) and gets their man.
16. Houston La’el Collins, OL
Collins should fit what Houston does on the offensive line, which has declined the last few years (losing aging Myers and Winston). Recent additions haven’t done much and there is little depth in the group. While not flashy, Collins will help.
I sort of think of it as if I had ultimate say like ownership for each coach/GM group. If they present me with a few possible choices that could happen at each pick, I'm pushing them in the following directions:
1. Tampa Bay Jameis Winston, QB
I’m no fan of Lovie Smith and their last off-season was such a disaster I’d fire the whole front office. With those parameters the only real hope is praying Winston works enough to become the top-10 QB he’s capable of being and rebuild the defense. Even if that happens I think the Lovie era is a dead end.
2. San Diego (from Tennessee) Marcus Mariota, QB
TRADE (Philip Rivers + Pick #48 + Pick #153 for Pick #2 and Pick #66)
For a long time I anticipated a win-win deal with the Eagles for this spot, but as interest in Mariota continues to rise, the price to get there from #20 gets too rich for Chip Kelly’s blood. With a pending move to L.A. and Rivers entering $20 million/year 3rd contract territory, this seems like a great choice for everyone involved. Some pick swaps later in the draft give Tennessee some picks to help depth.
3. Jacksonville Amari Cooper, WR
After back-to-back 2nd round receivers and the Gerhart flop in free agency, the offense still struggled to a 30th DVOA ranking. I think Gus Bradley thinks he can make the defense work for a while but fixing the offense is going to take some talent to kick start Bortles. Cooper should be that weapon.
4. Oakland Leonard Williams, DT
New head coach Jack Del Rio loves that the best defensive player in this year’s draft falls to him at #4 and he rushes to the podium. Del Rio built his best defenses in Jacksonville on having plenty of beef up front and Williams along with newly signed Dan Williams and last year’s project pick Justin Ellis start that process.
5. New Orleans (from Washington) Dante Fowler Jr., OLB
TRADE (Pick #13 + Pick #44 + Pick #148 for Pick #5)
New Orleans makes a splash and uses some of its nine picks to aggressively move up and grab the surest edge defender in the draft. With question marks surrounding Ray and Gregory, what was once thought of as a deep edge rusher draft has turned into a crapshoot. Washington’s issues still come down to what RGIII will do with Jay Gruden and no one pick is going to change that. With last year’s picks of Trent Murphy and Jackson Jeffcoat at OLB and signing Terrance Knighton at NT, what Washington really needs is offensive line, which they will address at pick #13.
6. New York Jets Danny Shelton, DT/NT
With questions growing about the future of Muhammad Wilkerson, Todd Bowles picks a solid, safe pick in Danny Shelton to help shore up his defensive line rotation.
7. Chicago Kevin White, WR
While their top need is improving the defense for John Fox, you can’t ignore White as a talent to replace Brandon Marshall. His upside as a potential Larry Fitzgerald 2.0 is too good to pass up here.
8. Atlanta Vic Beasley, OLB/DE
New coach Dan Quinn has his work cut out for him on the front seven and he’s brought numerous camp bodies in to threaten jobs and push underperforming veterans. Beasley offers unique athleticism and pass rush that Quinn will use in his rotation system.
9. New York Giants Brandon Scherff, OL
A common selection among the mock draft community, I see no reason not to pair up the physical Scherff with a team that has a lot of holes and is starting to lack the physical edge it once used in playoff success. Scherff brings a bit of a nasty edge that the Giants’ offensive line has lacked.
10. St. Louis DeVante Parker, WR
The Rams’ success will solely depend on their QB output but the lack of elite weapons over the years has certainly not helped. Parker is viewed as a very good prospect with the size and catch radius the Rams receiving core sorely lacks.
11. San Francisco (from Minnesota) Trae Waynes, CB
TRADE (Pick #11 for Pick #15 and Pick #79)
A lot of mock drafts have Minnesota taking Waynes here but I don’t see that as a huge need after selecting Xavier Rhodes two years ago. Minnesota could use some depth and still try to target one of the elite running backs (Gurley/Gordon) if a Peterson Trade happens. San Francisco has a glaring hole at CB, a new defensive coach, and a couple extra picks in this draft. Waynes is the only CB without a lot of question marks and is worth a trade up.
12. Cleveland Breshad Perriman, WR
Cleveland could wait for a WR with their #19 pick, but decides instead to get the guy they want in Perriman. With elite speed and excellent tape, Perriman catapulted himself into a top-15 prospect and Cleveland desperately needs some juice at that position.
13. Washington (from New Orleans) Ereck Flowers, OT
Washington slides back, picks up a 2nd and 4th round pick and still get a very solid, physical tackle in Ereck Flowers to plug in immediately opposite Trent Williams. The Redskins’ offensive line was very poor last year and Gruden will like the size/length of Williams and his physicality in the run game.
14. Miami Marcus Peters, CB
After the run on WR’s and Miami’s limited ammunition to move up in the draft, Philbin settles on best player available and picks the talented Marcus Peters to add much needed depth to a CB journeyman group.
15. Minnesota Todd Gurley, RB
All signs are pointing to a divorce between the Vikings and Adrian Peterson. If that happens, Minnesota becomes very thin at the RB position and in desperation of a power back to protect the development of Teddy Bridgewater. With no one on the board worth a trade up, Minnesota picks Gurley a bit high (but not as high as #11) and gets their man.
16. Houston La’el Collins, OL
Collins should fit what Houston does on the offensive line, which has declined the last few years (losing aging Myers and Winston). Recent additions haven’t done much and there is little depth in the group. While not flashy, Collins will help.
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