Just a note on "playing to win"

[tapeANaspirin2it]

The Colts beat Houston today. Houston is now 9-4 and Indy 7-6. Indy is on the outside of the race for the division and the wildcard.

I take you back to week 4 Indy vs Houston. Game is in OT and Colts coach Frank Reich decides to go for it on 4th down from his own 43. They didn't get it and 2 plays later, Houston kicks the winning FG that was handed to them by stupidity.

If the colts had won that game, they would be in first place right now. Indy and Hou would both be 8-5 but with Indy holding the head to head tiebreaker. Indy would also be in really good shape in the wildcard race.

So the media can keep praising all these stupidly aggressive calls but they don't have to live with the result. They often say something like, Yeah they lost but they were playing to win so I like it.

You can like it watching the playoffs on TV because that stupid call may have screwed their whole season.

 

[FAB802]

That's great, but when you're playing an obviously inferior team like we are today you have to come out and handle them. Which we never do.

 

[nitsuj1225]

It's only a "bad call" because they didn't get it. It's called confirmation bias. You play the odds. Converting 4th and 1 is over a 50% success rate... probably more like 60-70% (don't feel like looking it up). Statistically it gave them the best chance to win despite not getting it. Also, who's to say they punt and still don't lose?

 

[tapeANaspirin2it]

It's only a "bad call" because they didn't get it. It's called confirmation bias. You play the odds. Converting 4th and 1 is over a 50% success rate... probably more like 60-70% (don't feel like looking it up). Statistically it gave them the best chance to win despite not getting it. Also, who's to say they punt and still don't lose?

You have to take field position and game situation into account. OT on your own 40 is too much risk. Even if you get it, it doesn’t guarantee a win. You still have to drive the ball another 30+ yards for a FG attempt. But don’t make it and it virtually guarantees a loss as the opponent only needs about 10 yards for a FG.

 

[Coach]

That's great, but when you're playing an obviously inferior team like we are today you have to come out and handle them. Which we never do.

Playing down to the level of our opponent and being defeated by teams with losing records is a Tomlin hallmark.





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[nitsuj1225]

You have to take field position and game situation into account. OT on your own 40 is too much risk. Even if you get it, it doesn’t guarantee a win. You still have to drive the ball another 30+ yards for a FG attempt. But don’t make it and it virtually guarantees a loss as the opponent only needs about 10 yards for a FG.

You're not wrong. I just tend to favor being aggressive when the odds are in your favor. I'd rather lose being aggressive than playing not to lose all the time...hell a coach got famous for it...it's called Marty ball for a reason.

Belicheck made the same call against Manning and the Colts and it ended the same way. I've also seen him make that call in other games and have it work out more often than not. Its not going to work every time but by playing the odds and staying aggressive, over time it tends to favor the aggressor.

Then again, I would never kick an extra point and go for 2 every time so I guess I would be considered more aggressive than most.

 

[Vader]

The only time I'd ever go for 2 is if I scored with time running out and I had to have it to tie. I've seen to many games where a team keeps chasing that one point. Just take the 1. Because if you miss it then you'll almost never get it back.

 

[nitsuj1225]

The only time I'd ever go for 2 is if I scored with time running out and I had to have it to tie. I've seen to many games where a team keeps chasing that one point. Just take the 1. Because if you miss it then you'll almost never get it back.

Yes when the XP was a gimme. Now that they moved it back, it's not an automatic point. Case in point Boz's 5 missed XP this season.

 

[Stryker]

Yup, the extra point went from being a 99% conversion to now being about 90% Matt Prater is the only NFL kicker who hasn't missed an XP this year (25/25). Our kicker is 88.5% at XPs and 62.5% on FGs. That is horrid.

so the Steelers having an 88% chance at 1pt vs a 50% chance at 2points. Points vs risk, you will always have better odds per point going for 2.

 

[mdk2]

I’d being going for 2 every time this weekend, it’s the only way we might be able to stay within two TDs of the pats.


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[wig]

Yep, Boswell is too inconsistent to rely on him.

Not that an extra 2-point conversion or two will make a hill of beans difference against what the cheaters are going to do to Tomlin's Smoke and Mirrors D.

 

[Vader]

Yup, the extra point went from being a 99% conversion to now being about 90% Matt Prater is the only NFL kicker who hasn't missed an XP this year (25/25). Our kicker is 88.5% at XPs and 62.5% on FGs. That is horrid.

so the Steelers having an 88% chance at 1pt vs a 50% chance at 2points. Points vs risk, you will always have better odds per point going for 2.

Ok then I expect them to go for it every time. But they won't and you and I both know why. More teams lose because they went for 2 than because they settled for 1. How many times have teams chased that 1 point? The fact is that kicking an XP is still the best way to go. But please go ahead and go for 2 every time. But they won't and I'm sure they know the numbers.

 

[Stryker]

Ok then I expect them to go for it every time. But they won't and you and I both know why. More teams lose because they went for 2 than because they settled for 1. How many times have teams chased that 1 point? The fact is that kicking an XP is still the best way to go. But please go ahead and go for 2 every time. But they won't and I'm sure they know the numbers.

I'm not so sure Vader, we went for 2 11 times one year, and didn't lose a game because of it. It's just a mindset and strategy. If you're playing the numbers, going for 2 always works out in your favor. It worked for SD last week...twice...

 

[Vader]

I'm not so sure Vader, we went for 2 11 times one year, and didn't lose a game because of it. It's just a mindset and strategy. If you're playing the numbers, going for 2 always works out in your favor. It worked for SD last week...twice...

No it doesn't always work out. If it did then nobody would ever kick an XP.

Yes, we went for 2 11 times. Why not this year? Also you don't know how it effects the rest of the game. So saying we didn't lose because of it is unknowable. Unless we lost in a blowout or didn't have any 2 pt. conversion in our losses.

Also where did you get the 50% number from? Last year teams were 45% on 2 pts. conversions.

 

[FAB802]

Our kicker is trash. I wish they would go for two every time, but they won't. How many times does he have to get the yips before they move on? I don't give two ***** about the cap, the bottom line is he is costing us games, and making games more interesting because he's not reliable any more.

 

[Stryker]

No it doesn't always work out. If it did then nobody would ever kick an XP.

Yes, we went for 2 11 times. Why not this year? Also you don't know how it effects the rest of the game. So saying we didn't lose because of it is unknowable. Unless we lost in a blowout or didn't have any 2 pt. conversion in our losses.

Also where did you get the 50% number from? Last year teams were 45% on 2 pts. conversions.

Yup, it's right around 50% Steelers were actually around 80% the year they went crazy on it. But we had a scheme in place and expected to go for 2 often. Other teams that only go for 2 out of necessity, are doing it less frequently and have less coaching on those plays.

I'm not sure why Tomlin got away from it, but if I was coaching, I'd never leave it. Especially with this kicker...

 

[nitsuj1225]

Props to the Chargers coach last night for being aggressive and going for 2 to win the game instead of taking a chance in OT. Perfect example of using the odds in your favor.