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This draft really worries me. There are a lot of good OLB prospects. That should be great news since the steelers need them so badly, but it could also see the steelers miss out on them. How?
We know how they constantly talk about best player available. My fear is that they still believe in Jarvis, and they feel that Moats can do an acceptable job at LOLB while a rookie develops. If that is the mindset, then if the top guys are gone, the steelers may go elsewhere in RD 1 under the assumption that pass rusher is deep.
Here's my nightmare scenario. Ray, Fowler, Beasley, are gone. STeelers remove Gregory from the board. They view Odighizuwa as a 3-4 DE. They see Harold on the same level as Dupree, Preston Smith, and Mauldin. They decide they shold wait until Rd 2 for pass rusher and they take CB Johnson from Wake Forest.
Then by RD 2, OLB is cleaned out so they wait again. They take a WR but the top WRs get cleaned out as well so they get a guy like Funchess in Rd 2. On to RD 3 and again, they guys they like are gone so they want to wait until Rd 4 for the pass rusher and they take a TE or RB in RD 3.
Now it's Rd 4 and you are hoping a guy like Golden from Missouri or is still available. They finally get the pass rusher at the correct "value" according to the board.
On paper, it looks great. You got a CB, WR, TE, and pass rusher in your top 4 picks. All needs and you got value.
In reality, what you may have is
CB who is just a nickel back
WR who is pretty good but not better than Wheaton or Bryant
TE who is decent but still sits behind Miller or RB who is a backup by design to Bell.
Pass Rusher who just replaces mediocre Worilds as a guy who needs the scheme to get him sacks.
This has been the steelers problem over the last few years. They are drafting good players, but few great ones.
Pass Rush needs a stud who can get sacks by defeating blocks, not another Worilds who needs a free run.
Secondary needs a CB who can make plays on the ball. They have Cortez and Gay who are OK but not playmakers.
This needs to be an aggressive draft if they see that it is not falling in their favor. If they trade away half their picks to move up and draft just 4 players, then i'm fine with that so long as those 4 guys are a real pass rusher, a starting CB, a WR who is good enough to be the #3 WR this year if one of the top 3 is injured, and a TE who can replace Heath in a year.
The steelers are often too inflexible with their board and their concept of getting value. They are content to wait for players to fall to them and some years they get shut out on positions of need. That's a fine strategy, so long as you don't get shut out of those positions for years in a row as the steelers have at pass rusher and CB.
The Steelers are usually in the position where the draft is an opportunity to IMPROVE various positions. Meaning, they have at least an average starter at all positions, so missing on a position is no big deal.
This team has actual holes. Meaning, you may need to hit on multiple picks at the same position just to fill that hole. Jarvis might be a total bust, so they may need 2 pass rusher, not 1. Cortez may never step up, so you need 2 starting CBs.
There is also a time element to this draft. The clock is ticking on Ben now. The Super Bowl window may slam shut as soon as Ben starts to decline. These holes need to be filled now, not 3 years from now.
We know how they constantly talk about best player available. My fear is that they still believe in Jarvis, and they feel that Moats can do an acceptable job at LOLB while a rookie develops. If that is the mindset, then if the top guys are gone, the steelers may go elsewhere in RD 1 under the assumption that pass rusher is deep.
Here's my nightmare scenario. Ray, Fowler, Beasley, are gone. STeelers remove Gregory from the board. They view Odighizuwa as a 3-4 DE. They see Harold on the same level as Dupree, Preston Smith, and Mauldin. They decide they shold wait until Rd 2 for pass rusher and they take CB Johnson from Wake Forest.
Then by RD 2, OLB is cleaned out so they wait again. They take a WR but the top WRs get cleaned out as well so they get a guy like Funchess in Rd 2. On to RD 3 and again, they guys they like are gone so they want to wait until Rd 4 for the pass rusher and they take a TE or RB in RD 3.
Now it's Rd 4 and you are hoping a guy like Golden from Missouri or is still available. They finally get the pass rusher at the correct "value" according to the board.
On paper, it looks great. You got a CB, WR, TE, and pass rusher in your top 4 picks. All needs and you got value.
In reality, what you may have is
CB who is just a nickel back
WR who is pretty good but not better than Wheaton or Bryant
TE who is decent but still sits behind Miller or RB who is a backup by design to Bell.
Pass Rusher who just replaces mediocre Worilds as a guy who needs the scheme to get him sacks.
This has been the steelers problem over the last few years. They are drafting good players, but few great ones.
Pass Rush needs a stud who can get sacks by defeating blocks, not another Worilds who needs a free run.
Secondary needs a CB who can make plays on the ball. They have Cortez and Gay who are OK but not playmakers.
This needs to be an aggressive draft if they see that it is not falling in their favor. If they trade away half their picks to move up and draft just 4 players, then i'm fine with that so long as those 4 guys are a real pass rusher, a starting CB, a WR who is good enough to be the #3 WR this year if one of the top 3 is injured, and a TE who can replace Heath in a year.
The steelers are often too inflexible with their board and their concept of getting value. They are content to wait for players to fall to them and some years they get shut out on positions of need. That's a fine strategy, so long as you don't get shut out of those positions for years in a row as the steelers have at pass rusher and CB.
The Steelers are usually in the position where the draft is an opportunity to IMPROVE various positions. Meaning, they have at least an average starter at all positions, so missing on a position is no big deal.
This team has actual holes. Meaning, you may need to hit on multiple picks at the same position just to fill that hole. Jarvis might be a total bust, so they may need 2 pass rusher, not 1. Cortez may never step up, so you need 2 starting CBs.
There is also a time element to this draft. The clock is ticking on Ben now. The Super Bowl window may slam shut as soon as Ben starts to decline. These holes need to be filled now, not 3 years from now.
