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Goff...? Wentz....? Really...?

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RollRed

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I'm certainly no expert when it comes to talent evaluation at the NFL level. But I can't understand for the life of me how a guy that was 14-23 as a starter and another guy that played at a Div. II school... that ran a very run oriented offense... became the top 2 quarterback prospects in this year's draft. Not only that, the Rams just gave up a king's ransom to get one of them. I just find it hard to believe that of all the QB's that played college football last year, these two have the most talent of all of them. First of all, there is no way in hell I take a guy that's been playing D-2 ball in the first round... and I sure as **** don't give up a ton just to get the chance to take him. How do you put any stock in a guy going up against D-2 talent every week? Everyone knows that the gap between NFL and FBS talent is enormous. That being said, what then is the size of the gap between NFL secondaries and D-2 college secondaries? Although Goff did play D-1, he was 14-23 as a starter. I'm sorry but if I'm building my offense around someone... he's gotta be a guy that's used to winning. I could be completely wrong and both these guys might end up being good NFL players. I just don't think either of them has the resume to justify going as high as they apparently are going to go.
 
And Johnny Manziel and Tim Tebow were some of the most successful and statistically dominant college football players in the BCS.

The games are so different and so much more is demanded of professional QB's that what happens in college (which are talent based powerhouses whose programs are clearly not equal in resources), is not a reflection of what will happen in the NFL.

That's why the evaluation is almost always about raw skill set and mental capacity for the position.

Have you watched film of either player? What would you notice, not notice, comment on, is good or bad?

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/carson-wentz-vs-montana-2015/

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jared-goff-vs-arizona-state-2015/

And I guess the last question would be who do you consider is a better prospect based on college production? And I will post a game or two of them and we can discuss their ability.
 
Overall, I agree with you. Given time, I think Wentz could be a good NFL QB but he needs time - and he is not going to get time. I never saw him play until the hype started and I watched stuff on youtube. I will agree that he is a very good athlete but the first thing I saw was him staring down his WRs. It takes time to break that and it will not show up on pro days running around in shorts. I believe if could sit for an entire year he would be fine. For example, if he could have gone to the Eagles and sat behind a couple of NFL vets, in a QB friendly offense, and then started in a couple of years - that would have been ideal.

I know that there is a camp that loves Goff but I'm not there. I do not have any concerns about his durability based on this frame; however, I think he is going to be a turnover machine in the NFL. His arm is meh and the transition from the gimmick O is going to be rough. Plus, I have 9" hands and I'm 5'8" and that just freaks me out.

I think that both will be over-drafted. I think Wentz had a decent chance for success in the NFL but I would not draft Goff in the first 2 rounds. Obviously, it is just my opinion.

The QB I think is most interesting is Paxton Lynch. Not NFL ready but that is the player I would try and get if I wanted a QB. Similar to Wentz, he needs to sit AT LEAST a year so you need vet in front of him. Not saying he is going to be a sure thing or anything - rather, you can get him later and I don't think he is any worse of a prospect overall.
 
Lynch has no natural innate ability to throw an accurate ball. I don't think with his frame and motion you will ever be able to teach that.

That is a HUGE red flag for me when watching film. It's not just about completions, it's about how accurate the completions are. The windows in the NFL shrink dramatically and you can't see it/throw it and be off by 3' on your target.

One of the things I really like about Wentz is he has natural accuracy on his throws. He throws into double coverage (see video above about 4th or 5th play) and is so confident in his accuracy that he is throwing to places only his guy can get it even when guys are covered. When you have great accuracy, you can be taught to throw AWAY from coverage regardless of whether you see a guy is open or not. I don't see that ability at all in Lynch and I don't think he ever will get it.

Goff has natural accuracy too, but I agree with the above that my concern with him is hand size and turnovers. That's why I would never touch him in a cold-weather city like Cleveland, New York or Buffalo but if i was in Arizona or California or Florida I can look past that a little and he becomes much more intriguing as a franchise caliber player.

I have said this before but I think Wentz is a better prospect than Bortles. He's more accurate and he's smarter. Bortles has a slightly stronger fastball but they are equal arm talents to me. Wentz might be a better athlete too.

Goff is somewhere between Derek Carr/Teddy Bridgewater and maybe a peak around Matt Ryan.

I really don't see a lot of bust potential in either because both are super smart and both have very good, accurate arms. You might not get super great/top-5 QB in the league but that is pretty damn hard to find. I certainly see top half in the league if things fall right around them.
 
The irony is that the Rams were the team that got a Kings Ransom in picks from the Redskins in the trade for RGIII.
 
If my team was QB starved I wouldn't have a problem drafting either one. But what the Rams paid was ridiculous. That is for a Manning type prospect. These two aren't even close.
 
SteelerSask said:
If my team was QB starved I wouldn't have a problem drafting either one. But what the Rams paid was ridiculous. That is for a Manning type prospect. These two aren't even close.
Click to expand...

It was a lot less that in the past. Moving up from #15 to #1 is a huge leap. And they paid less than what Washington did to move up to #2 from #6.

I would actually consider this crop of top-rated QB's to be above average vs. other draft years. Consider the last 10 seasons:

2006: Leinart, Cutler, Young (supposed to be amazing)
2007: Russell, Quinn
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2009: Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman
2010: Bradford, Clausen, Tebow, McCoy
2011: Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick
2012: Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weedon
2013: Smith, Manuel
2014: Bortles, Bridgewater, Manziel, Carr
2015: Winston, Marriota

I think you're certainly better in this year's class that about half of those classes. So if you have the firepower to move up, better now than to maybe get into a worse class next year or something.
 
I would agree both are being pushed up the draft boards for two reasons. One, lack of talent so the top two are riding the waves up the draft board. Two, QB is such a highly valued position that you do anything to get that franchise guy. I get why they are both first round talents. Wentz has the size, arm, athleticism you want and even in a Div. II conference he played a pro style offense and dominated. Goff might not have all the physical traits you want but he has a great head on his shoulders and video game type stats. Personally I feel both are mid first round prospects but in a year with not a lot at the position both likely go top 10 if not top 5.
 
I felt the same thing: What was I missing with these guys? I mean, going 1 and 2, most likely? I never even heard of either of them prior until 2016 draft talk.

It feels like they MIGHT have Ryan Tannehill kind of careers: Not the worst, but not top 10 kind of QBs. TN stuck gold on their deal. If they make some wise choices, they could be a stacked team by next year.
 
deljzc said:
It was a lot less that in the past. Moving up from #15 to #1 is a huge leap. And they paid less than what Washington did to move up to #2 from #6.

I would actually consider this crop of top-rated QB's to be above average vs. other draft years. Consider the last 10 seasons:

2006: Leinart, Cutler, Young (supposed to be amazing)
2007: Russell, Quinn
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2009: Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman
2010: Bradford, Clausen, Tebow, McCoy
2011: Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick
2012: Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weedon
2013: Smith, Manuel
2014: Bortles, Bridgewater, Manziel, Carr
2015: Winston, Marriota

I think you're certainly better in this year's class that about half of those classes. So if you have the firepower to move up, better now than to maybe get into a worse class next year or something.
Click to expand...

Agreed, and I'd add this QB class has good depth. There might be a player taken in rounds 3-6 that turns out to be good.

Wentz has the size, leadership ( Interviews well ) , athleticism and arm, and threw the ball well in the workouts. I don't think he's NFL ready, but by year 3 you could really have something with him

Goff is a natural passer with a good arm. I think if he goes to a team with a decent OL can be a good one.

Lynch I think is a hype job.

I really like Hogan. Want him as our back up.
 
deljzc said:
Lynch has no natural innate ability to throw an accurate ball. I don't think with his frame and motion you will ever be able to teach that.

That is a HUGE red flag for me when watching film. It's not just about completions, it's about how accurate the completions are. The windows in the NFL shrink dramatically and you can't see it/throw it and be off by 3' on your target.
Click to expand...

You are not going to catch me saying that Lynch is a better prospect that Wentz because I don't believe it. Or say he is a sure thing, best QB in the draft, or anything like that because I don't believe it. More to the point, the reason l like him in this draft is because I saw him play in 2013 and he was TERRIBLE. Then I saw him in 2014 and he looked OK but sailed a ton of balls and thew a bunch of rocket balls and did not have much tough. That is the first year I noticed his arm - it is insanely good. Then I saw him in 2015 and he progressed in every area - had some touch, fewer crap passes, did not lock on to the first read, etc. As I said, I do not think he is ready for the NFL yet but I have seen him improve in every area and with his arm - that is one I think will blossom in the NFL. The thing is - he has improved his accuracy every year - not that it is up to NFL or top prospect standards - but it has improved. I'm not sure what his ceiling is because if he continues to improve he has the arm to be the best of this crop. On the other hand, if a team drafts him early does not give him time and stability to get used to the NFL game then he will turn into Jason Campbell.
 
How about Trevone Boykin?

I totally understand the character concerns- but this guy beat most of Dalton's TCU record while running the same system. And Dalton was a consensus 1st round pick.
 
deljzc said:
It was a lot less that in the past. Moving up from #15 to #1 is a huge leap. And they paid less than what Washington did to move up to #2 from #6.

I would actually consider this crop of top-rated QB's to be above average vs. other draft years. Consider the last 10 seasons:

2006: Leinart, Cutler, Young (supposed to be amazing)
2007: Russell, Quinn
2008: Ryan, Flacco
2009: Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman
2010: Bradford, Clausen, Tebow, McCoy
2011: Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick
2012: Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weedon
2013: Smith, Manuel
2014: Bortles, Bridgewater, Manziel, Carr
2015: Winston, Marriota

I think you're certainly better in this year's class that about half of those classes. So if you have the firepower to move up, better now than to maybe get into a worse class next year or something.
Click to expand...
You are applying hindsight and foresight together and coming up with a conclusion. I have heard nothing about these guys as to what is considered a sure fire prospect in the vain of a Manning (Peyton or Eli) or even a Luck. You are giving away next years 1st and third. That is a lot. And that is to say that neither of the two would be there at 15. I would say that Cleveland and San Fran are almost certainly taking, but boy that was a steep price. If they fleeced enough off of The Skins for RGIII it might make sense. Still a lot for totally unproven talent.
As I read here there are pretty legitimate concerns over both players.
 
Bigappleyinzer said:
How about Trevone Boykin?

I totally understand the character concerns- but this guy beat most of Dalton's TCU record while running the same system. And Dalton was a consensus 1st round pick.
Click to expand...

Dalton was a couple inches taller and did not have a bunch of stupid fumbles.
 
This is an interesting list......Looking back:

2006: Leinart, Cutler, Young.
I did not like any of them but, to be fair, I only watched a little bit of Cutler.

2007: Russell, Quinn.
Never thought that Russell would be as good as he was hyped but I loved his arm. Hated Quinn.

2008: Ryan, Flacco.
Loved Flacco. I did not like Ryan high in the first.

2009: Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman.
Did not like any of them. Hated Sanches and Freeman.

2010: Bradford, Clausen, Tebow, McCoy.
I thought Bradford would be excellent. Did not like the rest.

2011: Newton, Gabbert, Locker, Ponder, Dalton, Kaepernick.
Liked Newton, Gabbert, and Locker. Did not like Dalton, Ponder, and Kap. Thought Kap could suck in the NFL.

2012: Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Weedon.
I liked Griffin better than Luck but I did like both.

2013: Smith, Manuel. Nope. Did not like either.

2014: Bortles, Bridgewater, Manziel, Carr.
I only liked Carr. I did not think Manziel was a draftable player and I thought the other two would be backups.

2015: Winston, Marriota.
I liked Winston but did not think Marriota would be good at the next level.
 
Last edited:
RollRed said:
I'm certainly no expert when it comes to talent evaluation at the NFL level. But I can't understand for the life of me how a guy that was 14-23 as a starter and another guy that played at a Div. II school... that ran a very run oriented offense... became the top 2 quarterback prospects in this year's draft. Not only that, the Rams just gave up a king's ransom to get one of them. I just find it hard to believe that of all the QB's that played college football last year, these two have the most talent of all of them. First of all, there is no way in hell I take a guy that's been playing D-2 ball in the first round... and I sure as **** don't give up a ton just to get the chance to take him. How do you put any stock in a guy going up against D-2 talent every week? Everyone knows that the gap between NFL and FBS talent is enormous. That being said, what then is the size of the gap between NFL secondaries and D-2 college secondaries? Although Goff did play D-1, he was 14-23 as a starter. I'm sorry but if I'm building my offense around someone... he's gotta be a guy that's used to winning. I could be completely wrong and both these guys might end up being good NFL players. I just don't think either of them has the resume to justify going as high as they apparently are going to go.
Click to expand...

NDSU is NOT a D2 team. They are FCS (formerly known as 1aa).

Wentz chose to stay home, as most of the North Dakota kids do. They WANT to go to NDSU, its a football powerhouse. They run a pro-style offense which will only help Wentz transition as he didn't spend 4 years dink and dunking in a spread offense. He doesn't have to learn how to play from under center, he already knows how.

So what if they ran the ball successfully? How should that mean he is an inferior QB?

Sure, the talent level isn't as high in the FCS opponents he faced, but he dominated and there is nothing to suggest he wouldn't have succeeded at a FBS school. NDSU has a history of beating FBS schools, to the point where they will no longer play them.

Wentz is a winner, period. On top of that he has all the skills. Size, strength, accuracy . . .plus the smarts to be able to succeed as a pro. There is no guarantee he WILL succeed, but I wouldn't bet against him. He has the talent to be every bit as good as a Carr, Bortles or Luck.
 
steelerscotty said:
He has the talent to be every bit as good as a Carr, Bortles or Luck.
Click to expand...

I'll second this. He has the talent to be on the A-list. Not as ready as Luck but not far behind the other two - with more physical talent. BUT, would you take him with the #1 pick?
 
fogdoctor said:
I'll second this. He has the talent to be on the A-list. Not as ready as Luck but not far behind the other two - with more physical talent. BUT, would you take him with the #1 pick?
Click to expand...

Who else are you going to take? A left tackle?

I mean the Texans have statistically drafted the most impactful defensive player OF ALL TIME in J.J. Watt yet they continue to be a .500 team that barely sniffs the playoffs.

I don't think people fully realize the plight of being a team in the bottom-10 QB situations. It is literally a death wish as a coach/GM. If you DON'T draft someone, you lose. Both games and your job. But if you DRAFT someone young, you can buy yourself a few years while he either blossoms or withers under the pressure of playing time. Sometimes we don't look at these situations more from the mindset of people trying to keep their cushy $3 million jobs (and the notoriety of being one of only 32 others in the whole world).

If Jeff Fisher plays another year with Nick Foles and goes 7-9 he loses his job. Period.

If Jeff Fisher plays Carson Wentz and he starts to flash some potential and the team goes 7-9, you might get an extension.

It's that type of black/white future that so many of these GM's and coaches live under and often lead to really crazy decisions.
 
fogdoctor said:
I'll second this. He has the talent to be on the A-list. Not as ready as Luck but not far behind the other two - with more physical talent. BUT, would you take him with the #1 pick?
Click to expand...

Depends on the state of your team. In the Rams case they have other talent on the team and an elite QB (if he becomes that) will push them into the playoffs. But I can also see where a team like the Browns would pass and trade down or make a different selection. They have pretty much nothing talent wise and what they do have (Joe Thomas for example) has said they will leave first chance they get. For the stains to take a chance on a guy like Wentz (or Goff) with a high pick is a recipe for disaster similar to what happened to David Carr in Houston.
 
steelerscotty said:
Depends on the state of your team. In the Rams case they have other talent on the team and an elite QB (if he becomes that) will push them into the playoffs. But I can also see where a team like the Browns would pass and trade down or make a different selection. They have pretty much nothing talent wise and what they do have (Joe Thomas for example) has said they will leave first chance they get. For the stains to take a chance on a guy like Wentz (or Goff) with a high pick is a recipe for disaster similar to what happened to David Carr in Houston.
Click to expand...

I disagree. The Browns are the perfect example of why a QB matters so much.

They've had some good draft picks. From 2006 to 2010 they got players like Whimbley (rusher), D'Qwell Jackson (leader/ILB), Joe Thomas (LT), Ahtyba Rubin (NT), Alex Mack (C), Joe Haden (CB), TJ Ward (S). Jabaal Sheard (OLB), Jordan Cameron (TE).

Those players could have been a good foundation IF and only IF they had a quarterback. But they didn't.

They somehow put their hopes in players that fell much below what people thought of them. Which should have been a red flag when 20+ teams pass on your so-called "franchise QB". They did it with Brady Quinn. They did it with Colt McCoy. They did it with Weedon. They did it with Manziel.

In all of those cases, the media promoted this idea that they "got one over" on the rest of the league and got a player "at a good price". That's bullshit. The best QB's are normally the ones that are over drafted. The ones that go top-10.

Cleveland has failed not because of their draft choices, but because they've fooled themselves into believing they got their savior QB on the cheap and only they see it. That is a recipe for disaster.
 
You also have to factor in the $.

Franchise moving to a new city will want to sell some uniforms, nobody sells uniforms like a #1 overall pick QB. That equals $.

You also have to factor in the ridiculous QB contracts given to average QBs, this puts a form of cap control in years 3 and 4 assuming he develops which should coincide with the Rams window opening to contend in the division and the NFC. The Rams already roster/draft pick loaded in the RG3 trade so they were in the perfect position to pull off this trade, the stars were aligned.
 
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